NHL · All time: Context only
National TV (US)
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Context only
Context only. Home teams won 51.2%, vs 55.1%. Not adjusted for team strength.
- In the spot
- 51.2%
- Baseline
- 55.1%
- Sample
- 1,083 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 1,083 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 51.2% | 55.1% | −3.9 pp | 1,083 | Home teams won 51.2%, vs 55.1%. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 9 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 1,083 | Games averaged 6.2 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 46.0% | 46.3% | −0.2 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 46.0% of games, vs 46.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.4% | 24.5% | −0.1 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.4% of games, vs 24.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 36.5% | 36.5% | +0.1 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.5% of games, vs 36.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.4% | 25.4% | +0.0 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.4% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.8% | 11.6% | +0.2 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.8% of games, vs 11.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.1% | 15.9% | +0.2 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.1% of games, vs 15.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 22.2% | 22.1% | +0.0 pp | 1,083 | 22.2% of games went to overtime, vs 22.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 35,699 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 1+ points in 34.3% of games, vs 37.5%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 34.3%
- Baseline
- 37.5%
- Sample
- 1,876 player-games
- Adjusted
- −2.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 1,876 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 34.3% | 37.5% | −3.2 pp | 1,876 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 34.3% of games, vs 37.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 24.0% | 26.3% | −2.2 pp | 1,876 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.0% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 14.9% | 16.3% | −1.5 pp | 1,876 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.9% of games, vs 16.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 43.2% | 44.0% | −0.8 pp | 1,876 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 43.2% of games, vs 44.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 22.6% | 22.9% | −0.3 pp | 1,876 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 22.6% of games, vs 22.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 10.7% | 10.4% | +0.3 pp | 1,876 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.7% of games, vs 10.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.6 | −0.0 | 1,876 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 3 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | – | – | – | 56 | Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 56 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | – | – | – | 56 | Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 56 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | – | – | – | 56 | Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 56 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Games averaged 6.2 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 6.2
- Baseline
- 6.2
- Sample
- 347 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 347 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | 6.2 | 6.2 | −0.0 | 347 | Games averaged 6.2 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 36.4% | 36.9% | −0.5 pp | 11,393 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.4% of games, vs 36.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.3% | 25.7% | −0.5 pp | 11,393 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.3% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 49.0% | 52.9% | −3.9 pp | 347 | Home teams won 49.0%, vs 52.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 44.9% | 45.0% | −0.1 pp | 11,393 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 44.9% of games, vs 45.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 26.8% | 24.4% | +2.4 pp | 347 | 26.8% of games went to overtime, vs 24.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.0% | 16.0% | −0.0 pp | 11,393 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.0% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.6% | 23.3% | +0.4 pp | 11,393 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.6% of games, vs 23.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.3% | 10.9% | +0.4 pp | 11,393 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.3% of games, vs 10.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.6 | +0.0 | 11,393 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference. |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Context only
Context only. Home teams won 51.2%, vs 55.1%. Not adjusted for team strength.
- In the spot
- 51.2%
- Baseline
- 55.1%
- Sample
- 1,083 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 1,083 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 51.2% | 55.1% | −3.9 pp | 1,083 | Home teams won 51.2%, vs 55.1%. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 9 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 1,083 | Games averaged 6.2 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 46.0% | 46.3% | −0.2 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 46.0% of games, vs 46.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.4% | 24.5% | −0.1 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.4% of games, vs 24.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 36.5% | 36.5% | +0.1 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.5% of games, vs 36.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.4% | 25.4% | +0.0 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.4% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.8% | 11.6% | +0.2 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.8% of games, vs 11.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.1% | 15.9% | +0.2 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.1% of games, vs 15.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 22.2% | 22.1% | +0.0 pp | 1,083 | 22.2% of games went to overtime, vs 22.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 35,699 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Context only
Context only. Home teams won 51.2%, vs 55.1%. Not adjusted for team strength.
- In the spot
- 51.2%
- Baseline
- 55.1%
- Sample
- 1,083 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 1,083 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 51.2% | 55.1% | −3.9 pp | 1,083 | Home teams won 51.2%, vs 55.1%. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 9 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 1,083 | Games averaged 6.2 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 46.0% | 46.3% | −0.2 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 46.0% of games, vs 46.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.4% | 24.5% | −0.1 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.4% of games, vs 24.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 36.5% | 36.5% | +0.1 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.5% of games, vs 36.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.4% | 25.4% | +0.0 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.4% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.8% | 11.6% | +0.2 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.8% of games, vs 11.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.1% | 15.9% | +0.2 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.1% of games, vs 15.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 22.2% | 22.1% | +0.0 pp | 1,083 | 22.2% of games went to overtime, vs 22.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 35,699 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Context only
Context only. Home teams won 51.2%, vs 55.1%. Not adjusted for team strength.
- In the spot
- 51.2%
- Baseline
- 55.1%
- Sample
- 1,083 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 1,083 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 51.2% | 55.1% | −3.9 pp | 1,083 | Home teams won 51.2%, vs 55.1%. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 9 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goalsSee the games for Avg combined goals → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 1,083 | Games averaged 6.2 combined goals, vs 6.2. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 46.0% | 46.3% | −0.2 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 46.0% of games, vs 46.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.4% | 24.5% | −0.1 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.4% of games, vs 24.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 36.5% | 36.5% | +0.1 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.5% of games, vs 36.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.4% | 25.4% | +0.0 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.4% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.8% | 11.6% | +0.2 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.8% of games, vs 11.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.1% | 15.9% | +0.2 pp | 35,699 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.1% of games, vs 15.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 22.2% | 22.1% | +0.0 pp | 1,083 | 22.2% of games went to overtime, vs 22.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 35,699 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(1.3 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Nationally televised in the US (ESPN national flag for the NBA; NHL box-score national market). NFL excluded: ESPN marks ~95% of NFL games national
- Baseline
- All other games, same league
- All-time seasons
- 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.