NHL · All time: Explained by quality

On a 3+ game losing streak

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 46.6% of games in this spot, vs 50.5% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.9 pp vs expectation for team strength).

In the spot: 46.6%
Baseline: 50.5%
Sample: 1,118 team-games
Adjusted: +2.9 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,118 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 6 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	46.6%	50.5%	−3.9 pp	1,118	Teams won 46.6% of games in this spot, vs 50.5% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.9 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	45.4%	46.3%	−0.9 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.4% of games, vs 46.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	23.8%	24.6%	−0.8 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.8% of games, vs 24.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	10.9%	11.8%	−0.9 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.9% of games, vs 11.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-0.3	0.0	−0.3	1,118	Average margin −0.3 vs +0.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 vs expectation for team strength).
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.6	1.7	−0.0	18,456	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	3.3	3.1	+0.2	1,118	Teams allowed 3.3 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	36.0%	36.6%	−0.7 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.0% of games, vs 36.6%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	24.9%	25.5%	−0.6 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.9% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	15.6%	16.0%	−0.4 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.6% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	3.0	3.1	−0.1	1,118	Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.3	6.2	+0.1	1,118	Teams averaged 6.3 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 1+ points in 31.6% of games, vs 38.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 31.6%
Baseline: 38.0%
Sample: 1,002 player-games
Adjusted: −2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 1,002 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 5 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	31.6%	38.0%	−6.3 pp	1,002	Skaters reached 1+ points in 31.6% of games, vs 38.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	21.4%	26.6%	−5.2 pp	1,002	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 21.4% of games, vs 26.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	19.2%	23.4%	−4.2 pp	1,002	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 19.2% of games, vs 23.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	7.6%	10.8%	−3.2 pp	1,002	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 7.6% of games, vs 10.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	13.6%	16.4%	−2.8 pp	1,002	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 13.6% of games, vs 16.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 2 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	40.7%	44.2%	−3.5 pp	1,002	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 40.7% of games, vs 44.2%. Not a clear difference.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.5	1.6	−0.1	1,002	Skaters averaged 1.5 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference.

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	60	Too small to publish in this window: n=60 from 56 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	60	Too small to publish in this window: n=60 from 56 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	60	Too small to publish in this window: n=60 from 56 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	60	Too small to publish in this window: n=60 from 56 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	60	Too small to publish in this window: n=60 from 56 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 47.6% of games in this spot, vs 50.3% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 47.6%
Baseline: 50.3%
Sample: 357 team-games
Adjusted: +1.3 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 357 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 12 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	47.6%	50.3%	−2.7 pp	357	Teams won 47.6% of games in this spot, vs 50.3% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	36.9%	36.8%	+0.2 pp	5,902	Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.9% of games, vs 36.8%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	44.8%	45.0%	−0.2 pp	5,902	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 44.8% of games, vs 45.0%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	23.4%	23.3%	+0.1 pp	5,902	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.4% of games, vs 23.3%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	25.5%	25.7%	−0.1 pp	5,902	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.5% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	16.1%	16.0%	+0.1 pp	5,902	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.1% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	10.6%	11.0%	−0.4 pp	5,902	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.6% of games, vs 11.0%. Not a clear difference.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-0.2	0.0	−0.2	357	Average margin −0.2 vs +0.0 in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.6	1.6	−0.0	5,902	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	3.3	3.1	+0.2	357	Teams allowed 3.3 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	3.1	3.1	+0.0	357	Teams scored 3.1 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.4	6.2	+0.2	357	Teams averaged 6.4 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 46.6%
Baseline: 50.5%
Sample: 1,118 team-games
Adjusted: +2.9 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,118 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 6 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	46.6%	50.5%	−3.9 pp	1,118	Teams won 46.6% of games in this spot, vs 50.5% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.9 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	45.4%	46.3%	−0.9 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.4% of games, vs 46.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	23.8%	24.6%	−0.8 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.8% of games, vs 24.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	10.9%	11.8%	−0.9 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.9% of games, vs 11.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-0.3	0.0	−0.3	1,118	Average margin −0.3 vs +0.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 vs expectation for team strength).
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.6	1.7	−0.0	18,456	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	3.3	3.1	+0.2	1,118	Teams allowed 3.3 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	36.0%	36.6%	−0.7 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.0% of games, vs 36.6%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	24.9%	25.5%	−0.6 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.9% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	15.6%	16.0%	−0.4 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.6% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	3.0	3.1	−0.1	1,118	Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.3	6.2	+0.1	1,118	Teams averaged 6.3 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 46.6%
Baseline: 50.5%
Sample: 1,118 team-games
Adjusted: +2.9 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,118 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 6 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	46.6%	50.5%	−3.9 pp	1,118	Teams won 46.6% of games in this spot, vs 50.5% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.9 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	45.4%	46.3%	−0.9 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.4% of games, vs 46.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	23.8%	24.6%	−0.8 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.8% of games, vs 24.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	10.9%	11.8%	−0.9 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.9% of games, vs 11.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-0.3	0.0	−0.3	1,118	Average margin −0.3 vs +0.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 vs expectation for team strength).
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.6	1.7	−0.0	18,456	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	3.3	3.1	+0.2	1,118	Teams allowed 3.3 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	36.0%	36.6%	−0.7 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.0% of games, vs 36.6%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	24.9%	25.5%	−0.6 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.9% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	15.6%	16.0%	−0.4 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.6% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	3.0	3.1	−0.1	1,118	Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.3	6.2	+0.1	1,118	Teams averaged 6.3 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 46.6%
Baseline: 50.5%
Sample: 1,118 team-games
Adjusted: +2.9 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,118 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 6 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	46.6%	50.5%	−3.9 pp	1,118	Teams won 46.6% of games in this spot, vs 50.5% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.9 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	45.4%	46.3%	−0.9 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.4% of games, vs 46.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	23.8%	24.6%	−0.8 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.8% of games, vs 24.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	10.9%	11.8%	−0.9 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.9% of games, vs 11.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-0.3	0.0	−0.3	1,118	Average margin −0.3 vs +0.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 vs expectation for team strength).
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.6	1.7	−0.0	18,456	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	3.3	3.1	+0.2	1,118	Teams allowed 3.3 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	36.0%	36.6%	−0.7 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.0% of games, vs 36.6%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	24.9%	25.5%	−0.6 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.9% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	15.6%	16.0%	−0.4 pp	18,456	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.6% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	3.0	3.1	−0.1	1,118	Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.3	6.2	+0.1	1,118	Teams averaged 6.3 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

(1.2 MB)

Definitions

The spot: Lost each of the last 3+ games this season (ties break streaks)
Baseline: Other team-games with 3+ prior games this season
All-time seasons: 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.