NHL · All time: Explained by quality
Eastern team playing in Pacific time
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 53.0% of games in this spot, vs 45.3% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- 53.0%
- Baseline
- 45.3%
- Sample
- 319 team-games
- Adjusted
- +1.0 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 319 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 53.0% | 45.3% | +7.7 pp | 319 | Teams won 53.0% of games in this spot, vs 45.3% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 0.2 | -0.3 | +0.4 | 319 | Average margin +0.2 vs −0.3 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs expectation for team strength). |
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.0 | 3.2 | −0.2 | 319 | Teams allowed 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.2. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 9 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 37.2% | 35.2% | +1.9 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 37.2% of games, vs 35.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.8% | 24.5% | +1.4 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.8% of games, vs 24.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.7% | 23.6% | +1.1 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.7% of games, vs 23.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 12.0% | 11.0% | +1.1 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.0% of games, vs 11.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.1% | 15.4% | +0.8 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.1% of games, vs 15.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 46.0% | 45.3% | +0.8 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 46.0% of games, vs 45.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.6 | +0.0 | 5,283 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.2 | 3.0 | +0.2 | 319 | Teams scored 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.1 | 6.2 | −0.0 | 319 | Teams averaged 6.1 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=28 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 28 team-games
- Floor to publish
- 200+ games
See all 28 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 12 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | – | – | – | 28 | Too small to publish in this window: n=28 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | – | – | – | 468 | Too small to publish in this window: n=468 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | – | – | – | 468 | Too small to publish in this window: n=468 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | – | – | – | 468 | Too small to publish in this window: n=468 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 468 | Too small to publish in this window: n=468 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 468 | Too small to publish in this window: n=468 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | – | – | – | 468 | Too small to publish in this window: n=468 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | – | – | – | 28 | Too small to publish in this window: n=28 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | – | – | – | 468 | Too small to publish in this window: n=468 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | – | – | – | 28 | Too small to publish in this window: n=28 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | – | – | – | 28 | Too small to publish in this window: n=28 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | – | – | – | 28 | Too small to publish in this window: n=28 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Skaters reached 1+ points in 40.1% of games, vs 35.9%. Adjusted: +3.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 40.1%
- Baseline
- 35.9%
- Sample
- 1,633 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 1,633 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 40.1% | 35.9% | +4.2 pp | 1,633 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 40.1% of games, vs 35.9%. Adjusted: +3.7 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 28.3% | 25.1% | +3.2 pp | 1,633 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 28.3% of games, vs 25.1%. Adjusted: +2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.2% | 22.5% | +1.7 pp | 1,633 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.2% of games, vs 22.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.6% | 10.3% | +1.4 pp | 1,633 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.6% of games, vs 10.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 17.1% | 15.7% | +1.4 pp | 1,633 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 17.1% of games, vs 15.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.3% | 44.2% | +1.1 pp | 1,633 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.3% of games, vs 44.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.6 | +0.0 | 1,633 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 99 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 99 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 99 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 99 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 99 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 53.0% of games in this spot, vs 45.3% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- 53.0%
- Baseline
- 45.3%
- Sample
- 319 team-games
- Adjusted
- +1.0 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 319 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 53.0% | 45.3% | +7.7 pp | 319 | Teams won 53.0% of games in this spot, vs 45.3% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 0.2 | -0.3 | +0.4 | 319 | Average margin +0.2 vs −0.3 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs expectation for team strength). |
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.0 | 3.2 | −0.2 | 319 | Teams allowed 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.2. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 9 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 37.2% | 35.2% | +1.9 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 37.2% of games, vs 35.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.8% | 24.5% | +1.4 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.8% of games, vs 24.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.7% | 23.6% | +1.1 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.7% of games, vs 23.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 12.0% | 11.0% | +1.1 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.0% of games, vs 11.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.1% | 15.4% | +0.8 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.1% of games, vs 15.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 46.0% | 45.3% | +0.8 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 46.0% of games, vs 45.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.6 | +0.0 | 5,283 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.2 | 3.0 | +0.2 | 319 | Teams scored 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.1 | 6.2 | −0.0 | 319 | Teams averaged 6.1 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 53.0% of games in this spot, vs 45.3% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- 53.0%
- Baseline
- 45.3%
- Sample
- 319 team-games
- Adjusted
- +1.0 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 319 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 53.0% | 45.3% | +7.7 pp | 319 | Teams won 53.0% of games in this spot, vs 45.3% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 0.2 | -0.3 | +0.4 | 319 | Average margin +0.2 vs −0.3 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs expectation for team strength). |
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.0 | 3.2 | −0.2 | 319 | Teams allowed 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.2. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 9 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 37.2% | 35.2% | +1.9 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 37.2% of games, vs 35.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.8% | 24.5% | +1.4 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.8% of games, vs 24.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.7% | 23.6% | +1.1 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.7% of games, vs 23.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 12.0% | 11.0% | +1.1 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.0% of games, vs 11.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.1% | 15.4% | +0.8 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.1% of games, vs 15.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 46.0% | 45.3% | +0.8 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 46.0% of games, vs 45.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.6 | +0.0 | 5,283 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.2 | 3.0 | +0.2 | 319 | Teams scored 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.1 | 6.2 | −0.0 | 319 | Teams averaged 6.1 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 53.0% of games in this spot, vs 45.3% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- 53.0%
- Baseline
- 45.3%
- Sample
- 319 team-games
- Adjusted
- +1.0 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 319 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 53.0% | 45.3% | +7.7 pp | 319 | Teams won 53.0% of games in this spot, vs 45.3% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 0.2 | -0.3 | +0.4 | 319 | Average margin +0.2 vs −0.3 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 vs expectation for team strength). |
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.0 | 3.2 | −0.2 | 319 | Teams allowed 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.2. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 9 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 37.2% | 35.2% | +1.9 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 37.2% of games, vs 35.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.8% | 24.5% | +1.4 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.8% of games, vs 24.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.7% | 23.6% | +1.1 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.7% of games, vs 23.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 12.0% | 11.0% | +1.1 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.0% of games, vs 11.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.1% | 15.4% | +0.8 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.1% of games, vs 15.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 46.0% | 45.3% | +0.8 pp | 5,283 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 46.0% of games, vs 45.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.6 | +0.0 | 5,283 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.2 | 3.0 | +0.2 | 319 | Teams scored 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.1 | 6.2 | −0.0 | 319 | Teams averaged 6.1 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Eastern-time team road game at a Pacific-time home team
- Baseline
- Other domestic road team-games
- All-time seasons
- 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.