NHL · All time: Explained by quality
Bounce-back after a bottom-25% game
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.4% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 23.4%
- Baseline
- 25.6%
- Sample
- 56,498 player-games
- Adjusted
- −0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 56,498 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.4% | 25.6% | −2.2 pp | 56,498 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.4% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.1 | 56,498 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 1.6
- Baseline
- 1.6
- Sample
- 3,611 player-games
- Adjusted
- +0.1 vs each player’s own norm
See all 3,611 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.6 | −0.1 | 3,611 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 1 measure
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 21.8% | 24.0% | −2.2 pp | 3,611 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 21.8% of games, vs 24.0%. Not a clear difference. |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 22.4% of games, vs 24.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 22.4%
- Baseline
- 24.5%
- Sample
- 18,343 player-games
- Adjusted
- +0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 18,343 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 22.4% | 24.5% | −2.1 pp | 18,343 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 22.4% of games, vs 24.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.1 | 18,343 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.4% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 23.4%
- Baseline
- 25.6%
- Sample
- 56,498 player-games
- Adjusted
- −0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 56,498 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.4% | 25.6% | −2.2 pp | 56,498 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.4% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.1 | 56,498 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.4% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 23.4%
- Baseline
- 25.6%
- Sample
- 56,498 player-games
- Adjusted
- −0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 56,498 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.4% | 25.6% | −2.2 pp | 56,498 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.4% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.1 | 56,498 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.4% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 23.4%
- Baseline
- 25.6%
- Sample
- 56,498 player-games
- Adjusted
- −0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 56,498 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.4% | 25.6% | −2.2 pp | 56,498 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.4% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.1 | 56,498 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(2.9 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Previous game (same season) at or below the player's own 25th percentile of all earlier stored games (10+ earlier games; no look-ahead)
- Baseline
- Same players after a game above their 25th percentile
- All-time seasons
- 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.