NHL · All time: Explained by quality
Revenge: blown out in the last meeting
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.0% of games, vs 46.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 45.0%
- Baseline
- 46.1%
- Sample
- 25,693 player-games
- Adjusted
- −0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 25,693 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.0% | 46.1% | −1.1 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.0% of games, vs 46.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.0% | 11.5% | −0.5 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.0% of games, vs 11.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.1 | 0.0 | −0.2 | 1,557 | Average margin −0.1 vs +0.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 vs expectation for team strength). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 25,693 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 8 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 47.8% | 50.5% | −2.7 pp | 1,557 | Teams won 47.8% of games in this spot, vs 50.5% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 36.1% | 36.5% | −0.5 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.1% of games, vs 36.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.1% | 25.4% | −0.4 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.1% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.8% | 24.2% | −0.4 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.8% of games, vs 24.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.7% | 16.0% | −0.3 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.7% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.0 | 3.1 | −0.1 | 1,557 | Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.2 | 3.1 | +0.1 | 1,557 | Teams allowed 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 1,557 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 40.8% of games, vs 44.7%. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 40.8%
- Baseline
- 44.7%
- Sample
- 2,222 player-games
- Adjusted
- −3.4 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 2,222 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 40.8% | 44.7% | −3.9 pp | 2,222 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 40.8% of games, vs 44.7%. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.5 | 1.6 | −0.1 | 2,222 | Skaters averaged 1.5 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Adjusted: −0.1 vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 21.2% | 23.3% | −2.2 pp | 2,222 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 21.2% of games, vs 23.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 35.6% | 37.2% | −1.6 pp | 2,222 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.6% of games, vs 37.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 24.9% | 26.1% | −1.2 pp | 2,222 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.9% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.3% | 16.3% | −1.0 pp | 2,222 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.3% of games, vs 16.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 9.7% | 10.7% | −1.0 pp | 2,222 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 9.7% of games, vs 10.7%. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | – | – | – | 134 | Too small to publish in this window: n=134 from 134 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | – | – | – | 134 | Too small to publish in this window: n=134 from 134 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | – | – | – | 134 | Too small to publish in this window: n=134 from 134 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | – | – | – | 134 | Too small to publish in this window: n=134 from 134 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | – | – | – | 134 | Too small to publish in this window: n=134 from 134 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 51.1% of games in this spot, vs 49.7% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 51.1%
- Baseline
- 49.7%
- Sample
- 522 team-games
- Adjusted
- +3.9 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 522 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 51.1% | 49.7% | +1.4 pp | 522 | Teams won 51.1% of games in this spot, vs 49.7% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 37.4% | 36.7% | +0.7 pp | 8,610 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 37.4% of games, vs 36.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.9% | 25.6% | +0.4 pp | 8,610 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.9% of games, vs 25.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.3% | 23.3% | −0.1 pp | 8,610 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.3% of games, vs 23.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.1% | 16.0% | +0.1 pp | 8,610 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.1% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 44.3% | 45.2% | −0.9 pp | 8,610 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 44.3% of games, vs 45.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 10.6% | 11.1% | −0.5 pp | 8,610 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.6% of games, vs 11.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 0.0 | -0.0 | +0.0 | 522 | Average margin +0.0 vs −0.0 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.6 | −0.0 | 8,610 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.2 | 3.1 | +0.1 | 522 | Teams scored 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.2 | 3.1 | +0.0 | 522 | Teams allowed 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.3 | 6.2 | +0.1 | 522 | Teams averaged 6.3 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.0% of games, vs 46.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 45.0%
- Baseline
- 46.1%
- Sample
- 25,693 player-games
- Adjusted
- −0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 25,693 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.0% | 46.1% | −1.1 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.0% of games, vs 46.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.0% | 11.5% | −0.5 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.0% of games, vs 11.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.1 | 0.0 | −0.2 | 1,557 | Average margin −0.1 vs +0.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 vs expectation for team strength). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 25,693 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 8 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 47.8% | 50.5% | −2.7 pp | 1,557 | Teams won 47.8% of games in this spot, vs 50.5% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 36.1% | 36.5% | −0.5 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.1% of games, vs 36.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.1% | 25.4% | −0.4 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.1% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.8% | 24.2% | −0.4 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.8% of games, vs 24.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.7% | 16.0% | −0.3 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.7% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.0 | 3.1 | −0.1 | 1,557 | Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.2 | 3.1 | +0.1 | 1,557 | Teams allowed 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 1,557 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.0% of games, vs 46.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 45.0%
- Baseline
- 46.1%
- Sample
- 25,693 player-games
- Adjusted
- −0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 25,693 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.0% | 46.1% | −1.1 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.0% of games, vs 46.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.0% | 11.5% | −0.5 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.0% of games, vs 11.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.1 | 0.0 | −0.2 | 1,557 | Average margin −0.1 vs +0.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 vs expectation for team strength). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 25,693 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 8 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 47.8% | 50.5% | −2.7 pp | 1,557 | Teams won 47.8% of games in this spot, vs 50.5% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 36.1% | 36.5% | −0.5 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.1% of games, vs 36.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.1% | 25.4% | −0.4 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.1% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.8% | 24.2% | −0.4 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.8% of games, vs 24.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.7% | 16.0% | −0.3 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.7% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.0 | 3.1 | −0.1 | 1,557 | Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.2 | 3.1 | +0.1 | 1,557 | Teams allowed 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 1,557 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.0% of games, vs 46.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 45.0%
- Baseline
- 46.1%
- Sample
- 25,693 player-games
- Adjusted
- −0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 25,693 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 45.0% | 46.1% | −1.1 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.0% of games, vs 46.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 11.0% | 11.5% | −0.5 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 11.0% of games, vs 11.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -0.1 | 0.0 | −0.2 | 1,557 | Average margin −0.1 vs +0.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 vs expectation for team strength). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.6 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 25,693 | Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 8 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 47.8% | 50.5% | −2.7 pp | 1,557 | Teams won 47.8% of games in this spot, vs 50.5% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 36.1% | 36.5% | −0.5 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 36.1% of games, vs 36.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.1% | 25.4% | −0.4 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.1% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 23.8% | 24.2% | −0.4 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.8% of games, vs 24.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 15.7% | 16.0% | −0.3 pp | 25,693 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.7% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 3.0 | 3.1 | −0.1 | 1,557 | Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 3.2 | 3.1 | +0.1 | 1,557 | Teams allowed 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.0 | 1,557 | Teams averaged 6.2 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(1.9 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Lost the last meeting (within 400 days) by the blowout margin
- Baseline
- Other team-games with a previous meeting
- All-time seasons
- 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.