NHL · All time: Myth checked
Birthday week (+/-3 days)
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.8% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 24.8%
- Baseline
- 26.1%
- Sample
- 2,551 player-games
- Adjusted
- −1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 2,551 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.8% | 26.1% | −1.3 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.8% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 12.2% | 12.7% | −0.5 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.2% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 48.2% | 48.3% | −0.0 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 48.2% of games, vs 48.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 38.0% | 38.3% | −0.3 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 38.0% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 26.7% | 26.7% | −0.0 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 26.7% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.6% | 16.9% | −0.3 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.6% of games, vs 16.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 2,551 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 54.4% of games, vs 43.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 54.4%
- Baseline
- 43.9%
- Sample
- 158 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 158 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 54.4% | 43.9% | +10.5 pp | 158 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 54.4% of games, vs 43.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 2.0 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 158 | Skaters averaged 2.0 shots on goal, vs 1.6. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.5% | 16.3% | +0.2 pp | 158 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.5% of games, vs 16.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 31.6% | 22.8% | +8.8 pp | 158 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 31.6% of games, vs 22.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 41.1% | 37.2% | +4.0 pp | 158 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 41.1% of games, vs 37.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 15.8% | 10.4% | +5.4 pp | 158 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 15.8% of games, vs 10.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 30.4% | 26.0% | +4.4 pp | 158 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 30.4% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference. |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.6% of games, vs 37.9%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 35.6%
- Baseline
- 37.9%
- Sample
- 864 player-games
- Adjusted
- −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 864 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 35.6% | 37.9% | −2.3 pp | 864 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.6% of games, vs 37.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 25.2% | 26.5% | −1.2 pp | 864 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 25.2% of games, vs 26.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 12.7% | 11.6% | +1.2 pp | 864 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.7% of games, vs 11.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 46.5% | 46.3% | +0.2 pp | 864 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 46.5% of games, vs 46.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.3% | 16.6% | −0.3 pp | 864 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.3% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.8% | 24.3% | +0.4 pp | 864 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.8% of games, vs 24.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | +0.0 | 864 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.8% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 24.8%
- Baseline
- 26.1%
- Sample
- 2,551 player-games
- Adjusted
- −1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 2,551 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.8% | 26.1% | −1.3 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.8% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 12.2% | 12.7% | −0.5 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.2% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 48.2% | 48.3% | −0.0 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 48.2% of games, vs 48.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 38.0% | 38.3% | −0.3 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 38.0% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 26.7% | 26.7% | −0.0 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 26.7% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.6% | 16.9% | −0.3 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.6% of games, vs 16.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 2,551 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.8% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 24.8%
- Baseline
- 26.1%
- Sample
- 2,551 player-games
- Adjusted
- −1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 2,551 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.8% | 26.1% | −1.3 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.8% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 12.2% | 12.7% | −0.5 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.2% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 48.2% | 48.3% | −0.0 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 48.2% of games, vs 48.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 38.0% | 38.3% | −0.3 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 38.0% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 26.7% | 26.7% | −0.0 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 26.7% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.6% | 16.9% | −0.3 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.6% of games, vs 16.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 2,551 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.8% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 24.8%
- Baseline
- 26.1%
- Sample
- 2,551 player-games
- Adjusted
- −1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 2,551 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal → | 24.8% | 26.1% | −1.3 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 24.8% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal → | 12.2% | 12.7% | −0.5 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 12.2% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal → | 48.2% | 48.3% | −0.0 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 48.2% of games, vs 48.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points → | 38.0% | 38.3% | −0.3 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 1+ points in 38.0% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists → | 26.7% | 26.7% | −0.0 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 1+ assists in 26.7% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals → | 16.6% | 16.9% | −0.3 pp | 2,551 | Skaters reached 1+ goals in 16.6% of games, vs 16.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal → | 1.7 | 1.7 | −0.0 | 2,551 | Skaters averaged 1.7 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.3 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Game within 3 days of the birthday (includes the day)
- Baseline
- Other games of players with a known DOB
- All-time seasons
- 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.