NHL · All time: Edge

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pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 43.8% of games in this spot, vs 51.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: −6.1 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 43.8%
Baseline: 51.1%
Sample: 1,253 team-games
Adjusted: −6.1 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,253 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 8 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	43.8%	51.1%	−7.2 pp	1,253	Teams won 43.8% of games in this spot, vs 51.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: −6.1 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	34.5%	36.8%	−2.4 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 1+ points in 34.5% of games, vs 36.8%. Adjusted: −2.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	23.9%	25.6%	−1.7 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 23.9% of games, vs 25.6%. Adjusted: −1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	15.0%	16.1%	−1.1 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.0% of games, vs 16.1%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	23.3%	24.6%	−1.4 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.3% of games, vs 24.6%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	10.8%	11.8%	−1.0 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.8% of games, vs 11.8%. Adjusted: −0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-0.3	0.1	−0.4	1,253	Average margin −0.3 vs +0.1 in the baseline. Adjusted: −0.3 vs expectation for team strength.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.6	1.7	−0.1	20,795	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Adjusted: −0.0 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	45.3%	46.3%	−1.1 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.3% of games, vs 46.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	2.9	3.1	−0.2	1,253	Teams scored 2.9 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	3.2	3.1	+0.1	1,253	Teams allowed 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 1 measure

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.1	6.2	−0.1	1,253	Teams averaged 6.1 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 290 games through 2026-11-11.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.7% of games, vs 37.1%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 32.7%
Baseline: 37.1%
Sample: 1,104 player-games
Adjusted: −5.2 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 1,104 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 7 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	32.7%	37.1%	−4.4 pp	1,104	Skaters reached 1+ points in 32.7% of games, vs 37.1%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	22.7%	26.0%	−3.3 pp	1,104	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 22.7% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	14.1%	16.1%	−1.9 pp	1,104	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 14.1% of games, vs 16.1%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	8.4%	10.5%	−2.1 pp	1,104	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 8.4% of games, vs 10.5%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	21.1%	22.9%	−1.8 pp	1,104	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 21.1% of games, vs 22.9%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	43.9%	43.8%	+0.2 pp	1,104	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 43.9% of games, vs 43.8%. Not a clear difference.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.5	1.6	−0.1	1,104	Skaters averaged 1.5 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Not a clear difference.

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	66	Too small to publish in this window: n=66 from 61 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	66	Too small to publish in this window: n=66 from 61 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	66	Too small to publish in this window: n=66 from 61 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	66	Too small to publish in this window: n=66 from 61 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	66	Too small to publish in this window: n=66 from 61 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 45.8% of games in this spot, vs 50.9% in the baseline. Adjusted: −4.3 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 45.8%
Baseline: 50.9%
Sample: 430 team-games
Adjusted: −4.3 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 430 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 3 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	45.8%	50.9%	−5.1 pp	430	Teams won 45.8% of games in this spot, vs 50.9% in the baseline. Adjusted: −4.3 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	10.2%	11.1%	−1.0 pp	7,103	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.2% of games, vs 11.1%. Adjusted: −0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.6	1.6	−0.1	7,103	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.6. Adjusted: −0.0 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-0.2	0.0	−0.2	430	Average margin −0.2 vs +0.0 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 vs expectation for team strength).

Myth checked 8 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	35.5%	37.1%	−1.6 pp	7,103	Skaters reached 1+ points in 35.5% of games, vs 37.1%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	24.7%	25.9%	−1.2 pp	7,103	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 24.7% of games, vs 25.9%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	22.3%	23.5%	−1.2 pp	7,103	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 22.3% of games, vs 23.5%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	15.3%	16.2%	−0.9 pp	7,103	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.3% of games, vs 16.2%. Not a clear difference.
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	44.1%	45.2%	−1.1 pp	7,103	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 44.1% of games, vs 45.2%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	3.0	3.1	−0.2	430	Teams scored 3.0 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	3.2	3.1	+0.1	430	Teams allowed 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.1	6.3	−0.1	430	Teams averaged 6.1 game total, vs 6.3. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 43.8% of games in this spot, vs 51.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: −6.1 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 43.8%
Baseline: 51.1%
Sample: 1,253 team-games
Adjusted: −6.1 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,253 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 8 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	43.8%	51.1%	−7.2 pp	1,253	Teams won 43.8% of games in this spot, vs 51.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: −6.1 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	34.5%	36.8%	−2.4 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 1+ points in 34.5% of games, vs 36.8%. Adjusted: −2.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	23.9%	25.6%	−1.7 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 23.9% of games, vs 25.6%. Adjusted: −1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	15.0%	16.1%	−1.1 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.0% of games, vs 16.1%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	23.3%	24.6%	−1.4 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.3% of games, vs 24.6%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	10.8%	11.8%	−1.0 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.8% of games, vs 11.8%. Adjusted: −0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-0.3	0.1	−0.4	1,253	Average margin −0.3 vs +0.1 in the baseline. Adjusted: −0.3 vs expectation for team strength.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.6	1.7	−0.1	20,795	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Adjusted: −0.0 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	45.3%	46.3%	−1.1 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.3% of games, vs 46.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	2.9	3.1	−0.2	1,253	Teams scored 2.9 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	3.2	3.1	+0.1	1,253	Teams allowed 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 1 measure

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.1	6.2	−0.1	1,253	Teams averaged 6.1 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 43.8% of games in this spot, vs 51.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: −6.1 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 43.8%
Baseline: 51.1%
Sample: 1,253 team-games
Adjusted: −6.1 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,253 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 8 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	43.8%	51.1%	−7.2 pp	1,253	Teams won 43.8% of games in this spot, vs 51.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: −6.1 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	34.5%	36.8%	−2.4 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 1+ points in 34.5% of games, vs 36.8%. Adjusted: −2.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	23.9%	25.6%	−1.7 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 23.9% of games, vs 25.6%. Adjusted: −1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	15.0%	16.1%	−1.1 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.0% of games, vs 16.1%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	23.3%	24.6%	−1.4 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.3% of games, vs 24.6%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	10.8%	11.8%	−1.0 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.8% of games, vs 11.8%. Adjusted: −0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-0.3	0.1	−0.4	1,253	Average margin −0.3 vs +0.1 in the baseline. Adjusted: −0.3 vs expectation for team strength.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.6	1.7	−0.1	20,795	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Adjusted: −0.0 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	45.3%	46.3%	−1.1 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.3% of games, vs 46.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	2.9	3.1	−0.2	1,253	Teams scored 2.9 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	3.2	3.1	+0.1	1,253	Teams allowed 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 1 measure

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.1	6.2	−0.1	1,253	Teams averaged 6.1 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 43.8% of games in this spot, vs 51.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: −6.1 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 43.8%
Baseline: 51.1%
Sample: 1,253 team-games
Adjusted: −6.1 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,253 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 8 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	43.8%	51.1%	−7.2 pp	1,253	Teams won 43.8% of games in this spot, vs 51.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: −6.1 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Skater 1+ pointsSee the games for Skater 1+ points →	34.5%	36.8%	−2.4 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 1+ points in 34.5% of games, vs 36.8%. Adjusted: −2.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ assistsSee the games for Skater 1+ assists →	23.9%	25.6%	−1.7 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 1+ assists in 23.9% of games, vs 25.6%. Adjusted: −1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 1+ goalsSee the games for Skater 1+ goals →	15.0%	16.1%	−1.1 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 1+ goals in 15.0% of games, vs 16.1%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 3+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 3+ shots on goal →	23.3%	24.6%	−1.4 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 3+ shots on goal in 23.3% of games, vs 24.6%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Skater 4+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 4+ shots on goal →	10.8%	11.8%	−1.0 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 4+ shots on goal in 10.8% of games, vs 11.8%. Adjusted: −0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-0.3	0.1	−0.4	1,253	Average margin −0.3 vs +0.1 in the baseline. Adjusted: −0.3 vs expectation for team strength.
Skater avg shots on goalSee the games for Skater avg shots on goal →	1.6	1.7	−0.1	20,795	Skaters averaged 1.6 shots on goal, vs 1.7. Adjusted: −0.0 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Skater 2+ shots on goalSee the games for Skater 2+ shots on goal →	45.3%	46.3%	−1.1 pp	20,795	Skaters reached 2+ shots on goal in 45.3% of games, vs 46.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	2.9	3.1	−0.2	1,253	Teams scored 2.9 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	3.2	3.1	+0.1	1,253	Teams allowed 3.2 goals a game, vs 3.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 1 measure

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
game totalSee the games for game total →	6.1	6.2	−0.1	1,253	Teams averaged 6.1 game total, vs 6.2. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

(0.9 MB)

Definitions

The spot: Played the previous calendar day")
Baseline: Team-games with 1+ day of rest
All-time seasons: 20232024, 20242025, 20252026, 20262027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.