NFL · All time: Edge

Wind 15+ mph

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 40.3% of games, vs 62.0%. Adjusted: −20.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 40.3%
Baseline: 62.0%
Sample: 181 player-games
Adjusted: −20.8 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 181 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 200+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 9 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	40.3%	62.0%	−21.7 pp	181	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 40.3% of games, vs 62.0%. Adjusted: −20.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	30.4%	47.8%	−17.4 pp	181	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 30.4% of games, vs 47.8%. Adjusted: −17.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	31.5%	40.6%	−9.1 pp	181	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 31.5% of games, vs 40.6%. Adjusted: −12.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	24.3%	35.0%	−10.7 pp	181	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 24.3% of games, vs 35.0%. Adjusted: −11.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	30.8%	37.6%	−6.8 pp	873	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 30.8% of games, vs 37.6%. Adjusted: −6.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	22.3%	28.5%	−6.2 pp	873	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 22.3% of games, vs 28.5%. Adjusted: −6.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	12.5%	15.5%	−3.0 pp	873	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.5% of games, vs 15.5%. Adjusted: −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	192.8	221.0	−28.2	181	QBs averaged 192.8 pass yds, vs 221.0. Adjusted: −28.6 vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	32.6	36.9	−4.3	873	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 32.6 rec yds, vs 36.9. Adjusted: −4.3 vs each player’s own norm.

Myth checked 6 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	34.3%	38.6%	−4.3 pp	248	RBs reached 1+ TD in 34.3% of games, vs 38.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	45.6%	48.6%	−3.0 pp	248	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 45.6% of games, vs 48.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	10.1%	13.0%	−3.0 pp	248	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 10.1% of games, vs 13.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	19.2%	21.3%	−2.0 pp	873	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.2% of games, vs 21.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.6%	29.3%	−0.6 pp	248	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.6% of games, vs 29.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	53.6	55.4	−1.8	248	RBs averaged 53.6 rush yds, vs 55.4. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Too small

No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).

Sample in this window: 0 player-games
Floor to publish: 100+ player-games from 30+ games

Too small 15 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	–	–	–	No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Too small

Too small to publish in this window: n=45 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Sample in this window: 45 player-games
Floor to publish: 100+ player-games from 30+ games

See all 45 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Too small 15 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	45	Too small to publish in this window: n=45 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	45	Too small to publish in this window: n=45 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	–	–	–	59	Too small to publish in this window: n=59 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	45	Too small to publish in this window: n=45 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	–	–	–	214	Too small to publish in this window: n=214 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	45	Too small to publish in this window: n=45 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	–	–	–	214	Too small to publish in this window: n=214 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	–	–	–	214	Too small to publish in this window: n=214 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	–	–	–	59	Too small to publish in this window: n=59 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	–	–	–	214	Too small to publish in this window: n=214 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	–	–	–	59	Too small to publish in this window: n=59 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	–	–	–	59	Too small to publish in this window: n=59 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	45	Too small to publish in this window: n=45 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	–	–	–	59	Too small to publish in this window: n=59 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	–	–	–	214	Too small to publish in this window: n=214 from 21 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 38.9% of games, vs 61.9%. Adjusted: −21.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 38.9%
Baseline: 61.9%
Sample: 149 player-games
Adjusted: −21.1 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 149 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 200+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 7 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	38.9%	61.9%	−23.0 pp	149	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 38.9% of games, vs 61.9%. Adjusted: −21.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	28.9%	47.8%	−19.0 pp	149	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 28.9% of games, vs 47.8%. Adjusted: −18.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	24.2%	35.4%	−11.2 pp	149	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 24.2% of games, vs 35.4%. Adjusted: −11.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	22.1%	28.5%	−6.4 pp	710	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 22.1% of games, vs 28.5%. Adjusted: −6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	31.5%	37.7%	−6.1 pp	710	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 31.5% of games, vs 37.7%. Adjusted: −5.9 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	192.8	220.9	−28.1	149	QBs averaged 192.8 pass yds, vs 220.9. Adjusted: −25.9 vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	33.2	36.8	−3.6	710	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 33.2 rec yds, vs 36.8. Adjusted: −3.5 vs each player’s own norm.

Myth checked 8 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	32.9%	40.4%	−7.5 pp	149	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 32.9% of games, vs 40.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	35.5%	38.7%	−3.2 pp	203	RBs reached 1+ TD in 35.5% of games, vs 38.7%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	45.8%	48.4%	−2.6 pp	203	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 45.8% of games, vs 48.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	11.3%	12.9%	−1.5 pp	203	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.3% of games, vs 12.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	13.1%	15.5%	−2.4 pp	710	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.1% of games, vs 15.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	19.9%	21.2%	−1.4 pp	710	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.9% of games, vs 21.2%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	30.5%	29.3%	+1.3 pp	203	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.5% of games, vs 29.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.1	55.2	−0.1	203	RBs averaged 55.1 rush yds, vs 55.2. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 40.3% of games, vs 62.0%. Adjusted: −20.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 40.3%
Baseline: 62.0%
Sample: 181 player-games
Adjusted: −20.8 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 181 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 200+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 9 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	40.3%	62.0%	−21.7 pp	181	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 40.3% of games, vs 62.0%. Adjusted: −20.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	30.4%	47.8%	−17.4 pp	181	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 30.4% of games, vs 47.8%. Adjusted: −17.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	31.5%	40.6%	−9.1 pp	181	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 31.5% of games, vs 40.6%. Adjusted: −12.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	24.3%	35.0%	−10.7 pp	181	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 24.3% of games, vs 35.0%. Adjusted: −11.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	30.8%	37.6%	−6.8 pp	873	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 30.8% of games, vs 37.6%. Adjusted: −6.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	22.3%	28.5%	−6.2 pp	873	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 22.3% of games, vs 28.5%. Adjusted: −6.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	12.5%	15.5%	−3.0 pp	873	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.5% of games, vs 15.5%. Adjusted: −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	192.8	221.0	−28.2	181	QBs averaged 192.8 pass yds, vs 221.0. Adjusted: −28.6 vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	32.6	36.9	−4.3	873	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 32.6 rec yds, vs 36.9. Adjusted: −4.3 vs each player’s own norm.

Myth checked 6 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	34.3%	38.6%	−4.3 pp	248	RBs reached 1+ TD in 34.3% of games, vs 38.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	45.6%	48.6%	−3.0 pp	248	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 45.6% of games, vs 48.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	10.1%	13.0%	−3.0 pp	248	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 10.1% of games, vs 13.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	19.2%	21.3%	−2.0 pp	873	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.2% of games, vs 21.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.6%	29.3%	−0.6 pp	248	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.6% of games, vs 29.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	53.6	55.4	−1.8	248	RBs averaged 53.6 rush yds, vs 55.4. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 40.3% of games, vs 62.0%. Adjusted: −20.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 40.3%
Baseline: 62.0%
Sample: 181 player-games
Adjusted: −20.8 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 181 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 200+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 9 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	40.3%	62.0%	−21.7 pp	181	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 40.3% of games, vs 62.0%. Adjusted: −20.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	30.4%	47.8%	−17.4 pp	181	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 30.4% of games, vs 47.8%. Adjusted: −17.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	31.5%	40.6%	−9.1 pp	181	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 31.5% of games, vs 40.6%. Adjusted: −12.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	24.3%	35.0%	−10.7 pp	181	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 24.3% of games, vs 35.0%. Adjusted: −11.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	30.8%	37.6%	−6.8 pp	873	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 30.8% of games, vs 37.6%. Adjusted: −6.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	22.3%	28.5%	−6.2 pp	873	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 22.3% of games, vs 28.5%. Adjusted: −6.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	12.5%	15.5%	−3.0 pp	873	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.5% of games, vs 15.5%. Adjusted: −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	192.8	221.0	−28.2	181	QBs averaged 192.8 pass yds, vs 221.0. Adjusted: −28.6 vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	32.6	36.9	−4.3	873	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 32.6 rec yds, vs 36.9. Adjusted: −4.3 vs each player’s own norm.

Myth checked 6 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	34.3%	38.6%	−4.3 pp	248	RBs reached 1+ TD in 34.3% of games, vs 38.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	45.6%	48.6%	−3.0 pp	248	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 45.6% of games, vs 48.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	10.1%	13.0%	−3.0 pp	248	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 10.1% of games, vs 13.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	19.2%	21.3%	−2.0 pp	873	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.2% of games, vs 21.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.6%	29.3%	−0.6 pp	248	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.6% of games, vs 29.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	53.6	55.4	−1.8	248	RBs averaged 53.6 rush yds, vs 55.4. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. On this weather spot each game shows that day’s temperature, wind, rain, snow and roof from the validated game-weather record. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

(84 KB)

Definitions

The spot: Sustained wind >=15 mph (reported kickoff wind or modelled fallback; not gusts). Weather and roof from a validated kickoff-weather record; outdoor games only
Baseline: Outdoor games under 15 mph
All-time seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.