NFL · All time: Explained by quality
On a 3+ game winning streak
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 61.0% of games in this spot, vs 47.4% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.1 pp vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- 61.0%
- Baseline
- 47.4%
- Sample
- 541 team-games
- Adjusted
- −2.1 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 541 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 13 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 61.0% | 47.4% | +13.6 pp | 541 | Teams won 61.0% of games in this spot, vs 47.4% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.1 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 47.2% | 36.1% | +11.1 pp | 555 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 47.2% of games, vs 36.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 58.6% | 48.6% | +9.9 pp | 555 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 58.6% of games, vs 48.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 53.3% | 41.4% | +11.9 pp | 555 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 53.3% of games, vs 41.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 70.8% | 61.4% | +9.4 pp | 555 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 70.8% of games, vs 61.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 25.4% | 21.7% | +3.7 pp | 2,755 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 25.4% of games, vs 21.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 32.4% | 29.2% | +3.2 pp | 2,755 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 32.4% of games, vs 29.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 44.9% | 39.2% | +5.7 pp | 755 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 44.9% of games, vs 39.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 41.2% | 38.7% | +2.5 pp | 2,755 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 41.2% of games, vs 38.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 18.7% | 16.2% | +2.5 pp | 2,755 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 18.7% of games, vs 16.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 239.0 | 222.3 | +16.6 | 555 | QBs averaged 239.0 pass yds, vs 222.3. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 vs each player’s own norm). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 3.6 | -0.8 | +4.4 | 541 | Average margin +3.6 vs −0.8 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs expectation for team strength). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 40.3 | 38.0 | +2.3 | 2,755 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.3 rec yds, vs 38.0. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Context only 3 measures
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 25.5 | 22.4 | +3.1 | 541 | Teams scored 25.5 points a game, vs 22.4. Not adjusted for team strength. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 21.9 | 23.2 | −1.3 | 541 | Teams allowed 21.9 points a game, vs 23.2. Not adjusted for team strength. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 47.4 | 45.6 | +1.8 | 541 | Teams averaged 47.4 game total, vs 45.6. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 4 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 30.1% | 29.5% | +0.5 pp | 755 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.1% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 53.5% | 49.3% | +4.2 pp | 755 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 53.5% of games, vs 49.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 13.8% | 12.6% | +1.2 pp | 755 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.8% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 57.5 | 55.8 | +1.7 | 755 | RBs averaged 57.5 rush yds, vs 55.8. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 24 games (the floor is 200+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 25 team-games
- Floor to publish
- 200+ games
See all 25 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 20 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 24 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 31 | Too small to publish in this window: n=31 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 31 | Too small to publish in this window: n=31 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 31 | Too small to publish in this window: n=31 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 130 | Too small to publish in this window: n=130 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 130 | Too small to publish in this window: n=130 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 31 | Too small to publish in this window: n=31 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 130 | Too small to publish in this window: n=130 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 130 | Too small to publish in this window: n=130 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 24 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 31 | Too small to publish in this window: n=31 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 130 | Too small to publish in this window: n=130 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 24 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 24 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 24 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 60.7% of games, vs 48.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 60.7%
- Baseline
- 48.2%
- Sample
- 140 player-games
- Adjusted
- +4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 140 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 60.7% | 48.2% | +12.5 pp | 140 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 60.7% of games, vs 48.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 9 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 47.1% | 36.2% | +10.9 pp | 140 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 47.1% of games, vs 36.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 36.4% | 29.0% | +7.4 pp | 140 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 36.4% of games, vs 29.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.6% | 24.9% | +4.7 pp | 507 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.6% of games, vs 24.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 17.6% | 13.9% | +3.6 pp | 507 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.6% of games, vs 13.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 15.0% | 12.0% | +3.0 pp | 140 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 15.0% of games, vs 12.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.5% | 21.2% | +2.2 pp | 507 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.5% of games, vs 21.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 38.3% | 34.8% | +3.5 pp | 507 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.3% of games, vs 34.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 60.8 | 55.3 | +5.4 | 140 | RBs averaged 60.8 rush yds, vs 55.3. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 38.4 | 35.3 | +3.0 | 507 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.4 rec yds, vs 35.3. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 10 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 87 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 87 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 87 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 87 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 87 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 87 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 87 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 87 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 87 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | – | – | – | 99 | Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 87 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 47.1% of games, vs 34.5%. Adjusted: +6.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 47.1%
- Baseline
- 34.5%
- Sample
- 380 player-games
- Adjusted
- +6.0 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 380 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 47.1% | 34.5% | +12.6 pp | 380 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 47.1% of games, vs 34.5%. Adjusted: +6.0 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Explained by quality 14 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 61.5% | 47.3% | +14.2 pp | 374 | Teams won 61.5% of games in this spot, vs 47.3% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.4 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 48.7% | 40.2% | +8.5 pp | 380 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 48.7% of games, vs 40.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 55.0% | 49.2% | +5.8 pp | 507 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 55.0% of games, vs 49.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 57.9% | 46.9% | +11.0 pp | 380 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 57.9% of games, vs 46.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 70.8% | 59.9% | +10.9 pp | 380 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 70.8% of games, vs 59.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 24.1% | 21.4% | +2.7 pp | 1,903 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 24.1% of games, vs 21.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 46.4% | 38.5% | +7.8 pp | 507 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 46.4% of games, vs 38.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 16.4% | 12.3% | +4.0 pp | 507 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 16.4% of games, vs 12.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 31.8% | 28.6% | +3.2 pp | 1,903 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 31.8% of games, vs 28.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 18.5% | 15.9% | +2.6 pp | 1,903 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 18.5% of games, vs 15.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 237.2 | 219.0 | +18.3 | 380 | QBs averaged 237.2 pass yds, vs 219.0. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.3 vs each player’s own norm). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 59.7 | 55.5 | +4.3 | 507 | RBs averaged 59.7 rush yds, vs 55.5. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 vs each player’s own norm). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 3.3 | -0.7 | +4.1 | 374 | Average margin +3.3 vs −0.7 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 vs expectation for team strength). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 39.5 | 37.4 | +2.1 | 1,903 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 39.5 rec yds, vs 37.4. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm). |
Context only 2 measures
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 25.1 | 22.1 | +3.0 | 374 | Teams scored 25.1 points a game, vs 22.1. Not adjusted for team strength. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 46.9 | 44.9 | +2.0 | 374 | Teams averaged 46.9 game total, vs 44.9. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 3 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 32.0% | 30.0% | +2.0 pp | 507 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 32.0% of games, vs 30.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 40.1% | 38.1% | +2.0 pp | 1,903 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 40.1% of games, vs 38.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 21.8 | 22.8 | −1.0 | 374 | Teams allowed 21.8 points a game, vs 22.8. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 61.0% of games in this spot, vs 47.4% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.1 pp vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- 61.0%
- Baseline
- 47.4%
- Sample
- 541 team-games
- Adjusted
- −2.1 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 541 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 13 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 61.0% | 47.4% | +13.6 pp | 541 | Teams won 61.0% of games in this spot, vs 47.4% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.1 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 47.2% | 36.1% | +11.1 pp | 555 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 47.2% of games, vs 36.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 58.6% | 48.6% | +9.9 pp | 555 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 58.6% of games, vs 48.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 53.3% | 41.4% | +11.9 pp | 555 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 53.3% of games, vs 41.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 70.8% | 61.4% | +9.4 pp | 555 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 70.8% of games, vs 61.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 25.4% | 21.7% | +3.7 pp | 2,755 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 25.4% of games, vs 21.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 32.4% | 29.2% | +3.2 pp | 2,755 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 32.4% of games, vs 29.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 44.9% | 39.2% | +5.7 pp | 755 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 44.9% of games, vs 39.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 41.2% | 38.7% | +2.5 pp | 2,755 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 41.2% of games, vs 38.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 18.7% | 16.2% | +2.5 pp | 2,755 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 18.7% of games, vs 16.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 239.0 | 222.3 | +16.6 | 555 | QBs averaged 239.0 pass yds, vs 222.3. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 vs each player’s own norm). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 3.6 | -0.8 | +4.4 | 541 | Average margin +3.6 vs −0.8 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs expectation for team strength). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 40.3 | 38.0 | +2.3 | 2,755 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.3 rec yds, vs 38.0. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Context only 3 measures
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 25.5 | 22.4 | +3.1 | 541 | Teams scored 25.5 points a game, vs 22.4. Not adjusted for team strength. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 21.9 | 23.2 | −1.3 | 541 | Teams allowed 21.9 points a game, vs 23.2. Not adjusted for team strength. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 47.4 | 45.6 | +1.8 | 541 | Teams averaged 47.4 game total, vs 45.6. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 4 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 30.1% | 29.5% | +0.5 pp | 755 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.1% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 53.5% | 49.3% | +4.2 pp | 755 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 53.5% of games, vs 49.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 13.8% | 12.6% | +1.2 pp | 755 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.8% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 57.5 | 55.8 | +1.7 | 755 | RBs averaged 57.5 rush yds, vs 55.8. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 61.0% of games in this spot, vs 47.4% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.1 pp vs expectation for team strength).
- In the spot
- 61.0%
- Baseline
- 47.4%
- Sample
- 541 team-games
- Adjusted
- −2.1 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 541 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 13 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 61.0% | 47.4% | +13.6 pp | 541 | Teams won 61.0% of games in this spot, vs 47.4% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.1 pp vs expectation for team strength). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 47.2% | 36.1% | +11.1 pp | 555 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 47.2% of games, vs 36.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 58.6% | 48.6% | +9.9 pp | 555 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 58.6% of games, vs 48.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 53.3% | 41.4% | +11.9 pp | 555 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 53.3% of games, vs 41.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 70.8% | 61.4% | +9.4 pp | 555 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 70.8% of games, vs 61.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 25.4% | 21.7% | +3.7 pp | 2,755 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 25.4% of games, vs 21.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 32.4% | 29.2% | +3.2 pp | 2,755 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 32.4% of games, vs 29.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 44.9% | 39.2% | +5.7 pp | 755 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 44.9% of games, vs 39.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 41.2% | 38.7% | +2.5 pp | 2,755 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 41.2% of games, vs 38.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 18.7% | 16.2% | +2.5 pp | 2,755 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 18.7% of games, vs 16.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 239.0 | 222.3 | +16.6 | 555 | QBs averaged 239.0 pass yds, vs 222.3. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 vs each player’s own norm). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 3.6 | -0.8 | +4.4 | 541 | Average margin +3.6 vs −0.8 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs expectation for team strength). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 40.3 | 38.0 | +2.3 | 2,755 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.3 rec yds, vs 38.0. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Context only 3 measures
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 25.5 | 22.4 | +3.1 | 541 | Teams scored 25.5 points a game, vs 22.4. Not adjusted for team strength. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 21.9 | 23.2 | −1.3 | 541 | Teams allowed 21.9 points a game, vs 23.2. Not adjusted for team strength. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 47.4 | 45.6 | +1.8 | 541 | Teams averaged 47.4 game total, vs 45.6. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 4 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 30.1% | 29.5% | +0.5 pp | 755 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.1% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 53.5% | 49.3% | +4.2 pp | 755 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 53.5% of games, vs 49.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 13.8% | 12.6% | +1.2 pp | 755 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.8% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 57.5 | 55.8 | +1.7 | 755 | RBs averaged 57.5 rush yds, vs 55.8. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Won each of the last 3+ games this season
- Baseline
- Other team-games with 3+ prior games this season
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.