NFL · All time: Edge

Rain or snow (wet field)

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.5% of games, vs 28.6%. Adjusted: −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 26.5%
Baseline: 28.6%
Sample: 2,735 player-games
Adjusted: −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 2,735 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

WR/TE 50+ rec yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	26.5%	28.6%	−2.1 pp	2,735	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.5% of games, vs 28.6%. Adjusted: −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	35.1	37.1	−2.0	2,735	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.1 rec yds, vs 37.1. Adjusted: −1.9 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	13.9%	15.7%	−1.8 pp	2,735	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.9% of games, vs 15.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 15 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	42.7	44.7	−2.0	269	Games averaged 42.7 combined points, vs 44.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	56.6%	61.3%	−4.7 pp	549	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 56.6% of games, vs 61.3%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	42.4%	47.6%	−5.2 pp	549	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 42.4% of games, vs 47.6%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	31.3%	35.0%	−3.7 pp	549	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 31.3% of games, vs 35.0%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	39.3%	39.9%	−0.6 pp	549	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 39.3% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.8%	37.5%	−1.8 pp	2,735	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.8% of games, vs 37.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	19.9%	21.6%	−1.7 pp	2,735	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.9% of games, vs 21.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	37.2%	38.6%	−1.4 pp	764	RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.2% of games, vs 38.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	48.6%	48.2%	+0.3 pp	764	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.6% of games, vs 48.2%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	29.5%	29.1%	+0.3 pp	764	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.5% of games, vs 29.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	13.2%	12.6%	+0.6 pp	764	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.2% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	55.4%	57.1%	−1.7 pp	269	Home teams won 55.4%, vs 57.1%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	7.1%	5.4%	+1.7 pp	269	7.1% of games went to overtime, vs 5.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	212.9	220.6	−7.7	549	QBs averaged 212.9 pass yds, vs 220.6. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.7	55.1	+0.6	764	RBs averaged 55.7 rush yds, vs 55.1. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.1% of games, vs 30.0%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 26.1%
Baseline: 30.0%
Sample: 357 player-games
Adjusted: −3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 357 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	26.1%	30.0%	−4.0 pp	357	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.1% of games, vs 30.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	13.2%	17.4%	−4.2 pp	357	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.2% of games, vs 17.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	23.2%	22.0%	+1.2 pp	357	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.2% of games, vs 22.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	36.1%	38.2%	−2.1 pp	357	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 36.1% of games, vs 38.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	34.7	37.8	−3.1	357	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 34.7 rec yds, vs 37.8. Not a clear difference.

Too small 13 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	–	–	–	34	Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 34 games (the floor is 200+ games).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	–	–	–	90	Too small to publish in this window: n=90 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	67	Too small to publish in this window: n=67 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	67	Too small to publish in this window: n=67 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	–	–	–	90	Too small to publish in this window: n=90 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	–	–	–	90	Too small to publish in this window: n=90 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	–	–	–	34	Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 34 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	67	Too small to publish in this window: n=67 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	–	–	–	90	Too small to publish in this window: n=90 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	67	Too small to publish in this window: n=67 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	–	–	–	34	Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 34 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	67	Too small to publish in this window: n=67 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	–	–	–	90	Too small to publish in this window: n=90 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 54.5% of games, vs 48.4%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 54.5%
Baseline: 48.4%
Sample: 134 player-games
Adjusted: +9.4 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 134 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 10 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	54.5%	48.4%	+6.1 pp	134	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 54.5% of games, vs 48.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	35.1%	27.7%	+7.3 pp	134	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 35.1% of games, vs 27.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.6%	33.4%	+2.2 pp	458	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.6% of games, vs 33.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	25.8%	23.3%	+2.5 pp	458	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 25.8% of games, vs 23.3%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	14.2%	12.6%	+1.6 pp	458	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.2% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	40.3%	38.7%	+1.6 pp	134	RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.3% of games, vs 38.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.4%	21.1%	+0.3 pp	458	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.4% of games, vs 21.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	13.4%	13.4%	+0.1 pp	134	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.4% of games, vs 13.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	56.8	56.0	+0.8	134	RBs averaged 56.8 rush yds, vs 56.0. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	34.2	34.2	+0.0	458	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 34.2 rec yds, vs 34.2. Not a clear difference.

Too small 8 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	–	–	–	44	Too small to publish in this window: n=44 from 44 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	89	Too small to publish in this window: n=89 from 44 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	89	Too small to publish in this window: n=89 from 44 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	89	Too small to publish in this window: n=89 from 44 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	–	–	–	44	Too small to publish in this window: n=44 from 44 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	–	–	–	44	Too small to publish in this window: n=44 from 44 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	89	Too small to publish in this window: n=89 from 44 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	89	Too small to publish in this window: n=89 from 44 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.3 rec yds, vs 37.0. Adjusted: −1.6 vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 35.3
Baseline: 37.0
Sample: 2,434 player-games
Adjusted: −1.6 vs each player’s own norm

See all 2,434 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

WR/TE avg rec yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	35.3	37.0	−1.7	2,434	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.3 rec yds, vs 37.0. Adjusted: −1.6 vs each player’s own norm.

Myth checked 17 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	42.9	44.6	−1.7	239	Games averaged 42.9 combined points, vs 44.6. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	42.8%	47.5%	−4.7 pp	488	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 42.8% of games, vs 47.5%. Not a clear difference.
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	57.4%	61.0%	−3.6 pp	488	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 57.4% of games, vs 61.0%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	32.8%	35.1%	−2.3 pp	488	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 32.8% of games, vs 35.1%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	26.6%	28.5%	−1.9 pp	2,434	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.6% of games, vs 28.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	49.0%	47.9%	+1.1 pp	684	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.0% of games, vs 47.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	37.3%	38.8%	−1.5 pp	684	RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.3% of games, vs 38.8%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	36.0%	37.6%	−1.6 pp	2,434	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 36.0% of games, vs 37.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	14.2%	15.7%	−1.5 pp	2,434	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.2% of games, vs 15.7%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	40.8%	39.4%	+1.4 pp	488	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 40.8% of games, vs 39.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	20.3%	21.4%	−1.1 pp	2,434	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.3% of games, vs 21.4%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	6.7%	5.5%	+1.2 pp	239	6.7% of games went to overtime, vs 5.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.4%	12.8%	−0.4 pp	684	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.4% of games, vs 12.8%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	29.2%	29.4%	−0.2 pp	684	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.2% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	56.1%	56.5%	−0.5 pp	239	Home teams won 56.1%, vs 56.5%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	214.3	220.2	−5.9	488	QBs averaged 214.3 pass yds, vs 220.2. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.5	55.0	+0.5	684	RBs averaged 55.5 rush yds, vs 55.0. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.5% of games, vs 28.6%. Adjusted: −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 26.5%
Baseline: 28.6%
Sample: 2,735 player-games
Adjusted: −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 2,735 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

WR/TE 50+ rec yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	26.5%	28.6%	−2.1 pp	2,735	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.5% of games, vs 28.6%. Adjusted: −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	35.1	37.1	−2.0	2,735	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.1 rec yds, vs 37.1. Adjusted: −1.9 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	13.9%	15.7%	−1.8 pp	2,735	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.9% of games, vs 15.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 15 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	42.7	44.7	−2.0	269	Games averaged 42.7 combined points, vs 44.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	56.6%	61.3%	−4.7 pp	549	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 56.6% of games, vs 61.3%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	42.4%	47.6%	−5.2 pp	549	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 42.4% of games, vs 47.6%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	31.3%	35.0%	−3.7 pp	549	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 31.3% of games, vs 35.0%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	39.3%	39.9%	−0.6 pp	549	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 39.3% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.8%	37.5%	−1.8 pp	2,735	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.8% of games, vs 37.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	19.9%	21.6%	−1.7 pp	2,735	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.9% of games, vs 21.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	37.2%	38.6%	−1.4 pp	764	RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.2% of games, vs 38.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	48.6%	48.2%	+0.3 pp	764	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.6% of games, vs 48.2%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	29.5%	29.1%	+0.3 pp	764	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.5% of games, vs 29.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	13.2%	12.6%	+0.6 pp	764	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.2% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	55.4%	57.1%	−1.7 pp	269	Home teams won 55.4%, vs 57.1%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	7.1%	5.4%	+1.7 pp	269	7.1% of games went to overtime, vs 5.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	212.9	220.6	−7.7	549	QBs averaged 212.9 pass yds, vs 220.6. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.7	55.1	+0.6	764	RBs averaged 55.7 rush yds, vs 55.1. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.5% of games, vs 28.6%. Adjusted: −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 26.5%
Baseline: 28.6%
Sample: 2,735 player-games
Adjusted: −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 2,735 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

WR/TE 50+ rec yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	26.5%	28.6%	−2.1 pp	2,735	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.5% of games, vs 28.6%. Adjusted: −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	35.1	37.1	−2.0	2,735	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.1 rec yds, vs 37.1. Adjusted: −1.9 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	13.9%	15.7%	−1.8 pp	2,735	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.9% of games, vs 15.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 15 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	42.7	44.7	−2.0	269	Games averaged 42.7 combined points, vs 44.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	56.6%	61.3%	−4.7 pp	549	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 56.6% of games, vs 61.3%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	42.4%	47.6%	−5.2 pp	549	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 42.4% of games, vs 47.6%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	31.3%	35.0%	−3.7 pp	549	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 31.3% of games, vs 35.0%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	39.3%	39.9%	−0.6 pp	549	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 39.3% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.8%	37.5%	−1.8 pp	2,735	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.8% of games, vs 37.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	19.9%	21.6%	−1.7 pp	2,735	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.9% of games, vs 21.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	37.2%	38.6%	−1.4 pp	764	RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.2% of games, vs 38.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	48.6%	48.2%	+0.3 pp	764	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.6% of games, vs 48.2%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	29.5%	29.1%	+0.3 pp	764	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.5% of games, vs 29.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	13.2%	12.6%	+0.6 pp	764	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.2% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	55.4%	57.1%	−1.7 pp	269	Home teams won 55.4%, vs 57.1%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	7.1%	5.4%	+1.7 pp	269	7.1% of games went to overtime, vs 5.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	212.9	220.6	−7.7	549	QBs averaged 212.9 pass yds, vs 220.6. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.7	55.1	+0.6	764	RBs averaged 55.7 rush yds, vs 55.1. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. On this weather spot each game shows that day’s temperature, wind, rain, snow and roof from the validated game-weather record. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Rain or snow. Weather and roof from a validated kickoff-weather record; outdoor games only
Baseline: Dry outdoor games
All-time seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.