NFL · All time: Explained by quality
Facing a team off a bye
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 27.0% of games, vs 29.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 27.0%
- Baseline
- 29.9%
- Sample
- 953 player-games
- Adjusted
- −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 953 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 27.0% | 29.9% | −3.0 pp | 953 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 27.0% of games, vs 29.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 45.5% | 51.2% | −5.7 pp | 191 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 45.5% of games, vs 51.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 34.0% | 38.7% | −4.6 pp | 191 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 34.0% of games, vs 38.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 36.6% | 43.9% | −7.2 pp | 191 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 36.6% of games, vs 43.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 26.4% | 29.9% | −3.5 pp | 254 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 26.4% of games, vs 29.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 38.6% | 39.8% | −1.2 pp | 254 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 38.6% of games, vs 39.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 61.3% | 63.9% | −2.7 pp | 191 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 61.3% of games, vs 63.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 19.8% | 22.6% | −2.8 pp | 953 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.8% of games, vs 22.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 46.9% | 50.1% | −3.2 pp | 254 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 46.9% of games, vs 50.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 38.1% | 39.3% | −1.2 pp | 953 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.1% of games, vs 39.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 15.7% | 16.7% | −1.0 pp | 953 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.7% of games, vs 16.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.6% | 12.5% | +0.1 pp | 254 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.6% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 222.4 | 226.8 | −4.4 | 191 | QBs averaged 222.4 pass yds, vs 226.8. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 36.8 | 38.6 | −1.8 | 953 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.8 rec yds, vs 38.6. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 54.0 | 56.0 | −2.0 | 254 | RBs averaged 54.0 rush yds, vs 56.0. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 14 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 14 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 14 | Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 22 | Too small to publish in this window: n=22 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 22 | Too small to publish in this window: n=22 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 14 | Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 14 | Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 22 | Too small to publish in this window: n=22 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 70 | Too small to publish in this window: n=70 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 70 | Too small to publish in this window: n=70 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 14 | Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 70 | Too small to publish in this window: n=70 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 70 | Too small to publish in this window: n=70 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 22 | Too small to publish in this window: n=22 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 14 | Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 22 | Too small to publish in this window: n=22 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 70 | Too small to publish in this window: n=70 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 29 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 29 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 29 | Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 42 | Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 42 | Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 29 | Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 141 | Too small to publish in this window: n=141 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 29 | Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 141 | Too small to publish in this window: n=141 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 42 | Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 141 | Too small to publish in this window: n=141 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 141 | Too small to publish in this window: n=141 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 29 | Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 42 | Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 141 | Too small to publish in this window: n=141 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 42 | Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 29 | Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 31.8% of games, vs 42.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−6.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 31.8%
- Baseline
- 42.0%
- Sample
- 132 player-games
- Adjusted
- −6.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 132 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 31.8% | 42.0% | −10.2 pp | 132 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 31.8% of games, vs 42.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−6.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 40.2% | 49.6% | −9.4 pp | 132 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 40.2% of games, vs 49.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 30.3% | 37.1% | −6.8 pp | 132 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 30.3% of games, vs 37.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 56.1% | 62.7% | −6.7 pp | 132 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 56.1% of games, vs 62.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 36.7% | 39.3% | −2.7 pp | 180 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 36.7% of games, vs 39.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 27.8% | 30.4% | −2.7 pp | 180 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.8% of games, vs 30.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 19.2% | 22.0% | −2.8 pp | 639 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.2% of games, vs 22.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 26.8% | 29.3% | −2.5 pp | 639 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.8% of games, vs 29.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.8% | 12.7% | +0.1 pp | 180 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.8% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 15.5% | 16.4% | −0.9 pp | 639 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.5% of games, vs 16.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 46.7% | 49.9% | −3.3 pp | 180 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 46.7% of games, vs 49.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 37.1% | 38.6% | −1.5 pp | 639 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.1% of games, vs 38.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 212.5 | 223.5 | −11.0 | 132 | QBs averaged 212.5 pass yds, vs 223.5. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 36.1 | 38.0 | −1.9 | 639 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.1 rec yds, vs 38.0. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 54.4 | 55.9 | −1.5 | 180 | RBs averaged 54.4 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 27.0% of games, vs 29.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 27.0%
- Baseline
- 29.9%
- Sample
- 953 player-games
- Adjusted
- −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 953 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 27.0% | 29.9% | −3.0 pp | 953 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 27.0% of games, vs 29.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 45.5% | 51.2% | −5.7 pp | 191 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 45.5% of games, vs 51.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 34.0% | 38.7% | −4.6 pp | 191 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 34.0% of games, vs 38.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 36.6% | 43.9% | −7.2 pp | 191 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 36.6% of games, vs 43.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 26.4% | 29.9% | −3.5 pp | 254 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 26.4% of games, vs 29.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 38.6% | 39.8% | −1.2 pp | 254 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 38.6% of games, vs 39.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 61.3% | 63.9% | −2.7 pp | 191 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 61.3% of games, vs 63.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 19.8% | 22.6% | −2.8 pp | 953 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.8% of games, vs 22.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 46.9% | 50.1% | −3.2 pp | 254 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 46.9% of games, vs 50.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 38.1% | 39.3% | −1.2 pp | 953 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.1% of games, vs 39.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 15.7% | 16.7% | −1.0 pp | 953 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.7% of games, vs 16.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.6% | 12.5% | +0.1 pp | 254 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.6% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 222.4 | 226.8 | −4.4 | 191 | QBs averaged 222.4 pass yds, vs 226.8. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 36.8 | 38.6 | −1.8 | 953 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.8 rec yds, vs 38.6. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 54.0 | 56.0 | −2.0 | 254 | RBs averaged 54.0 rush yds, vs 56.0. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 27.0% of games, vs 29.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 27.0%
- Baseline
- 29.9%
- Sample
- 953 player-games
- Adjusted
- −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 953 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 1 measure
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 27.0% | 29.9% | −3.0 pp | 953 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 27.0% of games, vs 29.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 45.5% | 51.2% | −5.7 pp | 191 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 45.5% of games, vs 51.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 34.0% | 38.7% | −4.6 pp | 191 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 34.0% of games, vs 38.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 36.6% | 43.9% | −7.2 pp | 191 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 36.6% of games, vs 43.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 26.4% | 29.9% | −3.5 pp | 254 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 26.4% of games, vs 29.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 38.6% | 39.8% | −1.2 pp | 254 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 38.6% of games, vs 39.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 61.3% | 63.9% | −2.7 pp | 191 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 61.3% of games, vs 63.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 19.8% | 22.6% | −2.8 pp | 953 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.8% of games, vs 22.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 46.9% | 50.1% | −3.2 pp | 254 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 46.9% of games, vs 50.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 38.1% | 39.3% | −1.2 pp | 953 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.1% of games, vs 39.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 15.7% | 16.7% | −1.0 pp | 953 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.7% of games, vs 16.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.6% | 12.5% | +0.1 pp | 254 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.6% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 222.4 | 226.8 | −4.4 | 191 | QBs averaged 222.4 pass yds, vs 226.8. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 36.8 | 38.6 | −1.8 | 953 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.8 rec yds, vs 38.6. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 54.0 | 56.0 | −2.0 | 254 | RBs averaged 54.0 rush yds, vs 56.0. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Opponent had 13+ days since its previous game and this team did not
- Baseline
- All other team-games with a previous game
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.