NFL · All time: Explained by quality
Facing a former team
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 9.6% of games, vs 14.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 9.6%
- Baseline
- 14.6%
- Sample
- 229 player-games
- Adjusted
- +0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 229 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 9.6% | 14.6% | −5.0 pp | 229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 9.6% of games, vs 14.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 31.4 | 36.3 | −4.9 | 229 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 31.4 rec yds, vs 36.3. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.2 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 3 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.4% | 20.4% | +1.0 pp | 229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.4% of games, vs 20.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 30.6% | 36.1% | −5.6 pp | 229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 30.6% of games, vs 36.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 21.4% | 26.9% | −5.5 pp | 229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 21.4% of games, vs 26.9%. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 21 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 21 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 21 | Too small to publish in this window: n=21 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 42 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 51 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 51 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 51 | Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 42 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 51 | Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 42 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 51 | Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 42 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 51 | Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 42 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 51 | Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 42 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 10.0% of games, vs 15.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 10.0%
- Baseline
- 15.2%
- Sample
- 210 player-games
- Adjusted
- +0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 210 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 10.0% | 15.2% | −5.2 pp | 210 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 10.0% of games, vs 15.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 31.6 | 36.9 | −5.2 | 210 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 31.6 rec yds, vs 36.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.7 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 3 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 22.4% | 20.6% | +1.8 pp | 210 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.4% of games, vs 20.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 30.5% | 36.6% | −6.2 pp | 210 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 30.5% of games, vs 36.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 21.4% | 27.4% | −5.9 pp | 210 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 21.4% of games, vs 27.4%. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 9.6% of games, vs 14.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 9.6%
- Baseline
- 14.6%
- Sample
- 229 player-games
- Adjusted
- +0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 229 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 9.6% | 14.6% | −5.0 pp | 229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 9.6% of games, vs 14.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 31.4 | 36.3 | −4.9 | 229 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 31.4 rec yds, vs 36.3. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.2 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 3 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.4% | 20.4% | +1.0 pp | 229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.4% of games, vs 20.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 30.6% | 36.1% | −5.6 pp | 229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 30.6% of games, vs 36.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 21.4% | 26.9% | −5.5 pp | 229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 21.4% of games, vs 26.9%. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 9.6% of games, vs 14.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 9.6%
- Baseline
- 14.6%
- Sample
- 229 player-games
- Adjusted
- +0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 229 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 9.6% | 14.6% | −5.0 pp | 229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 9.6% of games, vs 14.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 31.4 | 36.3 | −4.9 | 229 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 31.4 rec yds, vs 36.3. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.2 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 3 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.4% | 20.4% | +1.0 pp | 229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.4% of games, vs 20.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 30.6% | 36.1% | −5.6 pp | 229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 30.6% of games, vs 36.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 21.4% | 26.9% | −5.5 pp | 229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 21.4% of games, vs 26.9%. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Opponent is a team the player has stored games for and has since left (games-row history only; NHL ARI=UTA)
- Baseline
- Same players (anyone with a former team at that date) vs all other opponents
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.