NFL · All time: Myth checked

Sunday late window (4 PM ET)

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Games averaged 46.5 combined points, vs 45.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 46.5
Baseline: 45.7
Sample: 452 games
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 452 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 18 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	46.5	45.7	+0.8	452	Games averaged 46.5 combined points, vs 45.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	44.1%	43.1%	+1.0 pp	942	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 44.1% of games, vs 43.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	49.4%	49.7%	−0.3 pp	1,277	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.4% of games, vs 49.7%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	52.3%	50.2%	+2.1 pp	942	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 52.3% of games, vs 50.2%. Not a clear difference.
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	65.5%	63.1%	+2.4 pp	942	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 65.5% of games, vs 63.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.2%	12.4%	−0.2 pp	1,277	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.2% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	16.4%	16.6%	−0.2 pp	4,580	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.4% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	22.6%	22.3%	+0.2 pp	4,580	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.6% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	39.6%	37.9%	+1.7 pp	942	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 39.6% of games, vs 37.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	27.9%	29.8%	−1.9 pp	1,277	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.9% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	4.9%	6.5%	−1.6 pp	452	4.9% of games went to overtime, vs 6.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	39.6%	39.1%	+0.5 pp	4,580	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 39.6% of games, vs 39.1%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	52.9%	53.6%	−0.7 pp	452	Home teams won 52.9%, vs 53.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	30.3%	29.6%	+0.7 pp	4,580	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 30.3% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	40.9%	39.6%	+1.3 pp	1,277	RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.9% of games, vs 39.6%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	227.8	226.2	+1.6	942	QBs averaged 227.8 pass yds, vs 226.2. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.2	55.9	−0.7	1,277	RBs averaged 55.2 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	38.7	38.4	+0.4	4,580	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.7 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 5.9% of games, vs 14.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−5.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 5.9%
Baseline: 14.7%
Sample: 102 player-games
Adjusted: −5.4 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 102 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	5.9%	14.7%	−8.9 pp	102	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 5.9% of games, vs 14.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−5.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 9 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	45.1%	50.2%	−5.1 pp	102	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 45.1% of games, vs 50.2%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	37.3%	42.1%	−4.9 pp	102	RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.3% of games, vs 42.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	23.5%	30.5%	−7.0 pp	102	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 23.5% of games, vs 30.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	24.2%	21.8%	+2.5 pp	330	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 24.2% of games, vs 21.8%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	30.3%	28.7%	+1.6 pp	330	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 30.3% of games, vs 28.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	17.3%	15.2%	+2.0 pp	330	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.3% of games, vs 15.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	37.9%	37.6%	+0.3 pp	330	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.9% of games, vs 37.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	50.5	57.0	−6.5	102	RBs averaged 50.5 rush yds, vs 57.0. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	38.0	37.1	+0.9	330	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.0 rec yds, vs 37.1. Not a clear difference.

Too small 8 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	–	–	–	33	Too small to publish in this window: n=33 from 33 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	67	Too small to publish in this window: n=67 from 33 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	67	Too small to publish in this window: n=67 from 33 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	–	–	–	33	Too small to publish in this window: n=33 from 33 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	67	Too small to publish in this window: n=67 from 33 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	–	–	–	33	Too small to publish in this window: n=33 from 33 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	67	Too small to publish in this window: n=67 from 33 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	67	Too small to publish in this window: n=67 from 33 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 39.7% of games, vs 44.4%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 39.7%
Baseline: 44.4%
Sample: 146 player-games
Adjusted: −7.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 146 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 15 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	39.7%	44.4%	−4.7 pp	146	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 39.7% of games, vs 44.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	42.5%	33.3%	+9.1 pp	146	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 42.5% of games, vs 33.3%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.5%	25.4%	+3.1 pp	722	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.5% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	47.9%	45.8%	+2.1 pp	146	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 47.9% of games, vs 45.8%. Not a clear difference.
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	60.3%	58.3%	+2.0 pp	146	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 60.3% of games, vs 58.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	41.9%	38.3%	+3.6 pp	198	RBs reached 1+ TD in 41.9% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	49.0%	49.7%	−0.7 pp	198	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.0% of games, vs 49.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	37.5%	35.0%	+2.5 pp	722	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.5% of games, vs 35.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.8%	29.4%	−0.6 pp	198	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.8% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	15.7%	14.0%	+1.6 pp	722	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.7% of games, vs 14.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.5%	21.9%	−0.5 pp	722	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.5% of games, vs 21.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	10.1%	12.5%	−2.4 pp	198	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 10.1% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	220.9	215.1	+5.9	146	QBs averaged 220.9 pass yds, vs 215.1. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	36.8	35.7	+1.1	722	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.8 rec yds, vs 35.7. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	53.5	56.3	−2.8	198	RBs averaged 53.5 rush yds, vs 56.3. Not a clear difference.

Too small 3 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	–	–	–	70	Too small to publish in this window: n=70 from 70 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	–	–	–	70	Too small to publish in this window: n=70 from 70 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	–	–	–	70	Too small to publish in this window: n=70 from 70 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. 3.9% of games went to overtime, vs 6.8%.

In the spot: 3.9%
Baseline: 6.8%
Sample: 310 games
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 310 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Overtime rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	3.9%	6.8%	−3.0 pp	310	3.9% of games went to overtime, vs 6.8%.

Myth checked 17 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	45.9	44.8	+1.1	310	Games averaged 45.9 combined points, vs 44.8. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	49.0%	49.4%	−0.4 pp	876	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.0% of games, vs 49.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	38.7%	35.4%	+3.3 pp	643	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 38.7% of games, vs 35.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	13.2%	12.4%	+0.9 pp	876	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.2% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	63.5%	61.7%	+1.8 pp	643	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 63.5% of games, vs 61.7%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	49.6%	48.2%	+1.4 pp	643	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 49.6% of games, vs 48.2%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.9%	30.1%	−1.2 pp	876	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.9% of games, vs 30.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	40.5%	39.1%	+1.4 pp	876	RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.5% of games, vs 39.1%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	53.2%	55.0%	−1.8 pp	310	Home teams won 53.2%, vs 55.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	16.2%	16.1%	+0.1 pp	3,123	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.2% of games, vs 16.1%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	29.4%	28.9%	+0.5 pp	3,123	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.4% of games, vs 28.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	38.8%	38.2%	+0.6 pp	3,123	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.8% of games, vs 38.2%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	42.6%	40.8%	+1.9 pp	643	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 42.6% of games, vs 40.8%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	22.2%	21.6%	+0.6 pp	3,123	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.2% of games, vs 21.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.2	55.8	−0.6	876	RBs averaged 55.2 rush yds, vs 55.8. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	224.5	222.0	+2.5	643	QBs averaged 224.5 pass yds, vs 222.0. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	38.1	37.6	+0.4	3,123	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.1 rec yds, vs 37.6. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Games averaged 46.5 combined points, vs 45.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 46.5
Baseline: 45.7
Sample: 452 games
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 452 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 18 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	46.5	45.7	+0.8	452	Games averaged 46.5 combined points, vs 45.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	44.1%	43.1%	+1.0 pp	942	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 44.1% of games, vs 43.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	49.4%	49.7%	−0.3 pp	1,277	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.4% of games, vs 49.7%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	52.3%	50.2%	+2.1 pp	942	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 52.3% of games, vs 50.2%. Not a clear difference.
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	65.5%	63.1%	+2.4 pp	942	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 65.5% of games, vs 63.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.2%	12.4%	−0.2 pp	1,277	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.2% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	16.4%	16.6%	−0.2 pp	4,580	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.4% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	22.6%	22.3%	+0.2 pp	4,580	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.6% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	39.6%	37.9%	+1.7 pp	942	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 39.6% of games, vs 37.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	27.9%	29.8%	−1.9 pp	1,277	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.9% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	4.9%	6.5%	−1.6 pp	452	4.9% of games went to overtime, vs 6.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	39.6%	39.1%	+0.5 pp	4,580	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 39.6% of games, vs 39.1%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	52.9%	53.6%	−0.7 pp	452	Home teams won 52.9%, vs 53.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	30.3%	29.6%	+0.7 pp	4,580	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 30.3% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	40.9%	39.6%	+1.3 pp	1,277	RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.9% of games, vs 39.6%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	227.8	226.2	+1.6	942	QBs averaged 227.8 pass yds, vs 226.2. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.2	55.9	−0.7	1,277	RBs averaged 55.2 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	38.7	38.4	+0.4	4,580	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.7 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Games averaged 46.5 combined points, vs 45.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 46.5
Baseline: 45.7
Sample: 452 games
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 452 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 18 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	46.5	45.7	+0.8	452	Games averaged 46.5 combined points, vs 45.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	44.1%	43.1%	+1.0 pp	942	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 44.1% of games, vs 43.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	49.4%	49.7%	−0.3 pp	1,277	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.4% of games, vs 49.7%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	52.3%	50.2%	+2.1 pp	942	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 52.3% of games, vs 50.2%. Not a clear difference.
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	65.5%	63.1%	+2.4 pp	942	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 65.5% of games, vs 63.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.2%	12.4%	−0.2 pp	1,277	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.2% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	16.4%	16.6%	−0.2 pp	4,580	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.4% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	22.6%	22.3%	+0.2 pp	4,580	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.6% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	39.6%	37.9%	+1.7 pp	942	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 39.6% of games, vs 37.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	27.9%	29.8%	−1.9 pp	1,277	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.9% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	4.9%	6.5%	−1.6 pp	452	4.9% of games went to overtime, vs 6.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	39.6%	39.1%	+0.5 pp	4,580	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 39.6% of games, vs 39.1%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	52.9%	53.6%	−0.7 pp	452	Home teams won 52.9%, vs 53.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	30.3%	29.6%	+0.7 pp	4,580	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 30.3% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	40.9%	39.6%	+1.3 pp	1,277	RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.9% of games, vs 39.6%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	227.8	226.2	+1.6	942	QBs averaged 227.8 pass yds, vs 226.2. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.2	55.9	−0.7	1,277	RBs averaged 55.2 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	38.7	38.4	+0.4	4,580	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.7 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Sunday kickoff 3:00-5:59 PM ET
Baseline: All other NFL games
All-time seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.