NFL · All time: Explained by quality

Sunday early window (1 PM ET)

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 48.5% of games, vs 52.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 48.5%
Baseline: 52.8%
Sample: 1,820 player-games
Adjusted: +1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 1,820 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 3 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	48.5%	52.8%	−4.3 pp	1,820	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 48.5% of games, vs 52.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	60.8%	66.4%	−5.7 pp	1,820	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 60.8% of games, vs 66.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	222.9	230.0	−7.1	1,820	QBs averaged 222.9 pass yds, vs 230.0. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.0 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 15 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	45.6	46.1	−0.4	873	Games averaged 45.6 combined points, vs 46.1. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	42.7%	43.9%	−1.2 pp	1,820	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 42.7% of games, vs 43.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	39.9%	39.9%	+0.0 pp	2,450	RBs reached 1+ TD in 39.9% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	29.9%	28.8%	+1.2 pp	2,450	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.9% of games, vs 28.8%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	52.0%	54.7%	−2.7 pp	873	Home teams won 52.0%, vs 54.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.9%	22.8%	−0.9 pp	8,909	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.9% of games, vs 22.8%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	49.3%	49.9%	−0.7 pp	2,450	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.3% of games, vs 49.9%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	36.4%	40.0%	−3.6 pp	1,820	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 36.4% of games, vs 40.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	16.2%	16.9%	−0.7 pp	8,909	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.2% of games, vs 16.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	29.2%	30.2%	−1.0 pp	8,909	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.2% of games, vs 30.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	38.5%	39.9%	−1.4 pp	8,909	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.5% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	5.7%	6.4%	−0.7 pp	873	5.7% of games went to overtime, vs 6.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.7%	12.1%	+0.5 pp	2,450	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.7% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.9	38.9	−1.0	8,909	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.9 rec yds, vs 38.9. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.8	55.7	+0.1	2,450	RBs averaged 55.8 rush yds, vs 55.7. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 35.7% of games, vs 39.8%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 35.7%
Baseline: 39.8%
Sample: 143 player-games
Adjusted: −13.2 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 143 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 15 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	35.7%	39.8%	−4.2 pp	143	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 35.7% of games, vs 39.8%. Not a clear difference.
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	59.4%	68.4%	−9.0 pp	143	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 59.4% of games, vs 68.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	30.4%	26.9%	+3.5 pp	194	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.4% of games, vs 26.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	51.5%	46.1%	+5.4 pp	194	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 51.5% of games, vs 46.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	39.2%	42.5%	−3.3 pp	194	RBs reached 1+ TD in 39.2% of games, vs 42.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	27.2%	31.1%	−4.0 pp	732	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 27.2% of games, vs 31.1%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	14.6%	16.9%	−2.3 pp	732	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.6% of games, vs 16.9%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	39.2%	47.4%	−8.2 pp	143	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 39.2% of games, vs 47.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	48.3%	49.6%	−1.4 pp	143	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 48.3% of games, vs 49.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	36.5%	38.9%	−2.4 pp	732	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 36.5% of games, vs 38.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	14.4%	10.4%	+4.1 pp	194	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 14.4% of games, vs 10.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.6%	23.2%	−1.6 pp	732	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.6% of games, vs 23.2%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	222.3	233.7	−11.4	143	QBs averaged 222.3 pass yds, vs 233.7. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	56.9	53.6	+3.3	194	RBs averaged 56.9 rush yds, vs 53.6. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	36.2	38.5	−2.3	732	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.2 rec yds, vs 38.5. Not a clear difference.

Too small 3 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	–	–	–	70	Too small to publish in this window: n=70 from 70 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	–	–	–	70	Too small to publish in this window: n=70 from 70 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	–	–	–	70	Too small to publish in this window: n=70 from 70 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 27.6% of games, vs 42.5%. Adjusted: −11.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 27.6%
Baseline: 42.5%
Sample: 272 player-games
Adjusted: −11.1 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 272 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 250+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	27.6%	42.5%	−15.0 pp	272	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 27.6% of games, vs 42.5%. Adjusted: −11.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 4 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	52.9%	63.8%	−10.9 pp	272	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 52.9% of games, vs 63.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−5.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	41.2%	50.8%	−9.6 pp	272	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 41.2% of games, vs 50.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	206.7	225.0	−18.3	272	QBs averaged 206.7 pass yds, vs 225.0. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−10.5 vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	34.4	37.3	−2.9	1,358	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 34.4 rec yds, vs 37.3. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.6 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 10 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	44.9%	41.9%	+2.9 pp	272	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 44.9% of games, vs 41.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	38.6%	39.6%	−1.0 pp	383	RBs reached 1+ TD in 38.6% of games, vs 39.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	48.8%	50.1%	−1.3 pp	383	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.8% of games, vs 50.1%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	33.5%	37.5%	−4.0 pp	1,358	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 33.5% of games, vs 37.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	11.7%	12.1%	−0.3 pp	383	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.7% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	30.3%	28.4%	+1.9 pp	383	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.3% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	24.8%	27.4%	−2.6 pp	1,358	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 24.8% of games, vs 27.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	13.4%	15.3%	−1.9 pp	1,358	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.4% of games, vs 15.3%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.2%	22.3%	−1.1 pp	1,358	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.2% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.6	55.7	−0.0	383	RBs averaged 55.6 rush yds, vs 55.7. Not a clear difference.

Too small 3 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	–	–	–	132	Too small to publish in this window: n=132 from 132 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	–	–	–	132	Too small to publish in this window: n=132 from 132 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	–	–	–	132	Too small to publish in this window: n=132 from 132 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 33.3% of games, vs 38.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 33.3%
Baseline: 38.8%
Sample: 1,254 player-games
Adjusted: −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 1,254 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 4 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	33.3%	38.8%	−5.5 pp	1,254	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 33.3% of games, vs 38.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	58.3%	65.5%	−7.2 pp	1,254	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 58.3% of games, vs 65.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	45.9%	51.0%	−5.2 pp	1,254	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 45.9% of games, vs 51.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	217.4	227.4	−10.0	1,254	QBs averaged 217.4 pass yds, vs 227.4. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 14 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	44.8	45.3	−0.4	602	Games averaged 44.8 combined points, vs 45.3. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	40.9%	41.5%	−0.6 pp	1,254	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 40.9% of games, vs 41.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	48.6%	49.9%	−1.3 pp	1,716	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.6% of games, vs 49.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.2%	13.0%	−0.8 pp	1,716	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.2% of games, vs 13.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	29.8%	29.7%	+0.1 pp	1,716	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.8% of games, vs 29.7%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	53.5%	55.6%	−2.1 pp	602	Home teams won 53.5%, vs 55.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.3%	22.1%	−0.8 pp	6,104	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.3% of games, vs 22.1%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	15.7%	16.5%	−0.8 pp	6,104	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.7% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	37.7%	38.9%	−1.2 pp	6,104	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.7% of games, vs 38.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.5%	29.5%	−1.0 pp	6,104	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.5% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	6.1%	6.1%	+0.1 pp	602	6.1% of games went to overtime, vs 6.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	38.6%	40.2%	−1.7 pp	1,716	RBs reached 1+ TD in 38.6% of games, vs 40.2%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.2	56.1	−0.9	1,716	RBs averaged 55.2 rush yds, vs 56.1. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.2	38.3	−1.1	6,104	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.2 rec yds, vs 38.3. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 48.5% of games, vs 52.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 48.5%
Baseline: 52.8%
Sample: 1,820 player-games
Adjusted: +1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 1,820 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 3 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	48.5%	52.8%	−4.3 pp	1,820	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 48.5% of games, vs 52.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	60.8%	66.4%	−5.7 pp	1,820	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 60.8% of games, vs 66.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	222.9	230.0	−7.1	1,820	QBs averaged 222.9 pass yds, vs 230.0. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.0 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 15 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	45.6	46.1	−0.4	873	Games averaged 45.6 combined points, vs 46.1. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	42.7%	43.9%	−1.2 pp	1,820	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 42.7% of games, vs 43.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	39.9%	39.9%	+0.0 pp	2,450	RBs reached 1+ TD in 39.9% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	29.9%	28.8%	+1.2 pp	2,450	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.9% of games, vs 28.8%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	52.0%	54.7%	−2.7 pp	873	Home teams won 52.0%, vs 54.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.9%	22.8%	−0.9 pp	8,909	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.9% of games, vs 22.8%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	49.3%	49.9%	−0.7 pp	2,450	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.3% of games, vs 49.9%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	36.4%	40.0%	−3.6 pp	1,820	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 36.4% of games, vs 40.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	16.2%	16.9%	−0.7 pp	8,909	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.2% of games, vs 16.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	29.2%	30.2%	−1.0 pp	8,909	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.2% of games, vs 30.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	38.5%	39.9%	−1.4 pp	8,909	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.5% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	5.7%	6.4%	−0.7 pp	873	5.7% of games went to overtime, vs 6.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.7%	12.1%	+0.5 pp	2,450	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.7% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.9	38.9	−1.0	8,909	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.9 rec yds, vs 38.9. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.8	55.7	+0.1	2,450	RBs averaged 55.8 rush yds, vs 55.7. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 48.5% of games, vs 52.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 48.5%
Baseline: 52.8%
Sample: 1,820 player-games
Adjusted: +1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 1,820 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 3 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	48.5%	52.8%	−4.3 pp	1,820	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 48.5% of games, vs 52.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	60.8%	66.4%	−5.7 pp	1,820	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 60.8% of games, vs 66.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	222.9	230.0	−7.1	1,820	QBs averaged 222.9 pass yds, vs 230.0. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.0 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 15 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	45.6	46.1	−0.4	873	Games averaged 45.6 combined points, vs 46.1. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	42.7%	43.9%	−1.2 pp	1,820	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 42.7% of games, vs 43.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	39.9%	39.9%	+0.0 pp	2,450	RBs reached 1+ TD in 39.9% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	29.9%	28.8%	+1.2 pp	2,450	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.9% of games, vs 28.8%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	52.0%	54.7%	−2.7 pp	873	Home teams won 52.0%, vs 54.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.9%	22.8%	−0.9 pp	8,909	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.9% of games, vs 22.8%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	49.3%	49.9%	−0.7 pp	2,450	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.3% of games, vs 49.9%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	36.4%	40.0%	−3.6 pp	1,820	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 36.4% of games, vs 40.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	16.2%	16.9%	−0.7 pp	8,909	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.2% of games, vs 16.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	29.2%	30.2%	−1.0 pp	8,909	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.2% of games, vs 30.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	38.5%	39.9%	−1.4 pp	8,909	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.5% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	5.7%	6.4%	−0.7 pp	873	5.7% of games went to overtime, vs 6.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.7%	12.1%	+0.5 pp	2,450	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.7% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.9	38.9	−1.0	8,909	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.9 rec yds, vs 38.9. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.8	55.7	+0.1	2,450	RBs averaged 55.8 rush yds, vs 55.7. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Sunday kickoff 12:00-1:59 PM ET, not international
Baseline: All other NFL games
All-time seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.