NFL · All time: Myth checked
Sunday Night
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 52.0% of games, vs 50.7%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 52.0%
- Baseline
- 50.7%
- Sample
- 252 player-games
- Adjusted
- −3.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 252 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 52.0% | 50.7% | +1.3 pp | 252 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 52.0% of games, vs 50.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 38.9% | 38.3% | +0.6 pp | 252 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 38.9% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 48.3% | 49.7% | −1.4 pp | 352 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.3% of games, vs 49.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 11.1% | 12.5% | −1.4 pp | 352 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.1% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 41.8% | 39.1% | +2.8 pp | 1,229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 41.8% of games, vs 39.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 40.1% | 39.9% | +0.2 pp | 352 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.1% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 69.0% | 63.4% | +5.7 pp | 252 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 69.0% of games, vs 63.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 29.8% | 29.3% | +0.6 pp | 352 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.8% of games, vs 29.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.3% | 22.3% | +0.9 pp | 1,229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.3% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 17.4% | 16.5% | +0.9 pp | 1,229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.4% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 31.2% | 29.6% | +1.5 pp | 1,229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 31.2% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 45.6% | 43.2% | +2.5 pp | 252 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 45.6% of games, vs 43.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 54.7 | 55.8 | −1.1 | 352 | RBs averaged 54.7 rush yds, vs 55.8. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 39.3 | 38.4 | +1.0 | 1,229 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 39.3 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 231.9 | 226.2 | +5.7 | 252 | QBs averaged 231.9 pass yds, vs 226.2. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=18 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 18 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 18 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 18 | Too small to publish in this window: n=18 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 18 | Too small to publish in this window: n=18 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 18 | Too small to publish in this window: n=18 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 88 | Too small to publish in this window: n=88 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 88 | Too small to publish in this window: n=88 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 18 | Too small to publish in this window: n=18 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 88 | Too small to publish in this window: n=88 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 88 | Too small to publish in this window: n=88 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 18 | Too small to publish in this window: n=18 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 88 | Too small to publish in this window: n=88 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 25 | Too small to publish in this window: n=25 from 9 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=40 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 40 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 40 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 40 | Too small to publish in this window: n=40 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 59 | Too small to publish in this window: n=59 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 59 | Too small to publish in this window: n=59 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 40 | Too small to publish in this window: n=40 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 199 | Too small to publish in this window: n=199 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 40 | Too small to publish in this window: n=40 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 59 | Too small to publish in this window: n=59 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 59 | Too small to publish in this window: n=59 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 199 | Too small to publish in this window: n=199 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 199 | Too small to publish in this window: n=199 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 40 | Too small to publish in this window: n=40 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 199 | Too small to publish in this window: n=199 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 40 | Too small to publish in this window: n=40 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 199 | Too small to publish in this window: n=199 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 59 | Too small to publish in this window: n=59 from 19 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 40.0% of games, vs 41.3%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 40.0%
- Baseline
- 41.3%
- Sample
- 175 player-games
- Adjusted
- −5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 175 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 40.0% | 41.3% | −1.3 pp | 175 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 40.0% of games, vs 41.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 36.0% | 36.2% | −0.2 pp | 175 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 36.0% of games, vs 36.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 20.7% | 21.8% | −1.1 pp | 842 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.7% of games, vs 21.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 50.3% | 48.4% | +1.8 pp | 175 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 50.3% of games, vs 48.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 41.3% | 38.1% | +3.2 pp | 842 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 41.3% of games, vs 38.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 68.6% | 61.6% | +6.9 pp | 175 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 68.6% of games, vs 61.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 48.0% | 49.4% | −1.4 pp | 248 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.0% of games, vs 49.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 11.3% | 12.7% | −1.4 pp | 248 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.3% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 30.2% | 29.7% | +0.5 pp | 248 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.2% of games, vs 29.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 17.2% | 16.1% | +1.1 pp | 842 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.2% of games, vs 16.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 40.7% | 39.4% | +1.4 pp | 248 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.7% of games, vs 39.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 30.4% | 28.9% | +1.5 pp | 842 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 30.4% of games, vs 28.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 226.8 | 222.3 | +4.4 | 175 | QBs averaged 226.8 pass yds, vs 222.3. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 55.9 | 55.7 | +0.2 | 248 | RBs averaged 55.9 rush yds, vs 55.7. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 38.9 | 37.7 | +1.2 | 842 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.9 rec yds, vs 37.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 52.0% of games, vs 50.7%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 52.0%
- Baseline
- 50.7%
- Sample
- 252 player-games
- Adjusted
- −3.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 252 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 52.0% | 50.7% | +1.3 pp | 252 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 52.0% of games, vs 50.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 38.9% | 38.3% | +0.6 pp | 252 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 38.9% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 48.3% | 49.7% | −1.4 pp | 352 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.3% of games, vs 49.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 11.1% | 12.5% | −1.4 pp | 352 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.1% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 41.8% | 39.1% | +2.8 pp | 1,229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 41.8% of games, vs 39.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 40.1% | 39.9% | +0.2 pp | 352 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.1% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 69.0% | 63.4% | +5.7 pp | 252 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 69.0% of games, vs 63.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 29.8% | 29.3% | +0.6 pp | 352 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.8% of games, vs 29.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.3% | 22.3% | +0.9 pp | 1,229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.3% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 17.4% | 16.5% | +0.9 pp | 1,229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.4% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 31.2% | 29.6% | +1.5 pp | 1,229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 31.2% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 45.6% | 43.2% | +2.5 pp | 252 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 45.6% of games, vs 43.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 54.7 | 55.8 | −1.1 | 352 | RBs averaged 54.7 rush yds, vs 55.8. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 39.3 | 38.4 | +1.0 | 1,229 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 39.3 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 231.9 | 226.2 | +5.7 | 252 | QBs averaged 231.9 pass yds, vs 226.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 52.0% of games, vs 50.7%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 52.0%
- Baseline
- 50.7%
- Sample
- 252 player-games
- Adjusted
- −3.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 252 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 52.0% | 50.7% | +1.3 pp | 252 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 52.0% of games, vs 50.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 38.9% | 38.3% | +0.6 pp | 252 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 38.9% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 48.3% | 49.7% | −1.4 pp | 352 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.3% of games, vs 49.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 11.1% | 12.5% | −1.4 pp | 352 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.1% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 41.8% | 39.1% | +2.8 pp | 1,229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 41.8% of games, vs 39.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 40.1% | 39.9% | +0.2 pp | 352 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.1% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 69.0% | 63.4% | +5.7 pp | 252 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 69.0% of games, vs 63.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 29.8% | 29.3% | +0.6 pp | 352 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.8% of games, vs 29.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.3% | 22.3% | +0.9 pp | 1,229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.3% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 17.4% | 16.5% | +0.9 pp | 1,229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.4% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 31.2% | 29.6% | +1.5 pp | 1,229 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 31.2% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 45.6% | 43.2% | +2.5 pp | 252 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 45.6% of games, vs 43.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 54.7 | 55.8 | −1.1 | 352 | RBs averaged 54.7 rush yds, vs 55.8. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 39.3 | 38.4 | +1.0 | 1,229 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 39.3 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 231.9 | 226.2 | +5.7 | 252 | QBs averaged 231.9 pass yds, vs 226.2. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.1 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Sunday kickoff 7 PM ET or later
- Baseline
- All other NFL games
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.