NFL · All time: Edge
Season opener
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 24.0% of games, vs 29.8%. Adjusted: −7.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 24.0%
- Baseline
- 29.8%
- Sample
- 317 player-games
- Adjusted
- −7.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 317 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 24.0% | 29.8% | −5.8 pp | 317 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 24.0% of games, vs 29.8%. Adjusted: −7.7 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 45.1% | 50.1% | −5.0 pp | 317 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 45.1% of games, vs 50.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 40.9% | 43.1% | −2.2 pp | 225 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 40.9% of games, vs 43.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 42.9% | 39.8% | +3.1 pp | 317 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 42.9% of games, vs 39.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 49.3% | 50.4% | −1.0 pp | 225 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 49.3% of games, vs 50.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 10.7% | 12.6% | −1.9 pp | 317 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 10.7% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 15.0% | 16.5% | −1.4 pp | 1,144 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.0% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.1% | 29.6% | −0.5 pp | 1,144 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.1% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 39.0% | 39.2% | −0.2 pp | 1,144 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 39.0% of games, vs 39.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 37.3% | 37.7% | −0.4 pp | 225 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 37.3% of games, vs 37.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.2% | 22.3% | −1.1 pp | 1,144 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.2% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 64.4% | 63.3% | +1.2 pp | 225 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 64.4% of games, vs 63.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 53.2 | 56.1 | −2.8 | 317 | RBs averaged 53.2 rush yds, vs 56.1. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 37.4 | 38.4 | −1.0 | 1,144 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.4 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 230.7 | 225.6 | +5.1 | 225 | QBs averaged 230.7 pass yds, vs 225.6. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 32 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 32 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 32 | Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 32 | Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 48 | Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 48 | Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 48 | Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 32 | Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 32 | Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 170 | Too small to publish in this window: n=170 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 170 | Too small to publish in this window: n=170 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 170 | Too small to publish in this window: n=170 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 170 | Too small to publish in this window: n=170 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 48 | Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 32 | Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 170 | Too small to publish in this window: n=170 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 48 | Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 42 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 42 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 42 | Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 32 | Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 42 | Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 32 | Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 32 | Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 32 | Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 42 | Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 42 | Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 161 | Too small to publish in this window: n=161 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 161 | Too small to publish in this window: n=161 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 161 | Too small to publish in this window: n=161 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 161 | Too small to publish in this window: n=161 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 42 | Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 32 | Too small to publish in this window: n=32 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 161 | Too small to publish in this window: n=161 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 22.1% of games, vs 30.3%. Adjusted: −10.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 22.1%
- Baseline
- 30.3%
- Sample
- 226 player-games
- Adjusted
- −10.0 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 226 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 3 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 22.1% | 30.3% | −8.2 pp | 226 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 22.1% of games, vs 30.3%. Adjusted: −10.0 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 42.5% | 50.0% | −7.5 pp | 226 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 42.5% of games, vs 50.0%. Adjusted: −8.3 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 12.8% | 16.3% | −3.5 pp | 813 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.8% of games, vs 16.3%. Adjusted: −5.2 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 28.6% | 36.0% | −7.4 pp | 161 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 28.6% of games, vs 36.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 41.0% | 48.5% | −7.5 pp | 161 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 41.0% of games, vs 48.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 36.6% | 41.1% | −4.5 pp | 161 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 36.6% of games, vs 41.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 57.8% | 61.8% | −4.1 pp | 161 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 57.8% of games, vs 61.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 26.9% | 29.1% | −2.1 pp | 813 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.9% of games, vs 29.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 36.5% | 38.5% | −1.9 pp | 813 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 36.5% of games, vs 38.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 43.4% | 39.2% | +4.2 pp | 226 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 43.4% of games, vs 39.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 19.7% | 21.7% | −2.1 pp | 813 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.7% of games, vs 21.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 11.5% | 12.7% | −1.2 pp | 226 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.5% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 218.5 | 222.0 | −3.6 | 161 | QBs averaged 218.5 pass yds, vs 222.0. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 35.6 | 37.8 | −2.3 | 813 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.6 rec yds, vs 37.8. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 53.2 | 56.0 | −2.8 | 226 | RBs averaged 53.2 rush yds, vs 56.0. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 24.0% of games, vs 29.8%. Adjusted: −7.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 24.0%
- Baseline
- 29.8%
- Sample
- 317 player-games
- Adjusted
- −7.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 317 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 24.0% | 29.8% | −5.8 pp | 317 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 24.0% of games, vs 29.8%. Adjusted: −7.7 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 45.1% | 50.1% | −5.0 pp | 317 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 45.1% of games, vs 50.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 40.9% | 43.1% | −2.2 pp | 225 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 40.9% of games, vs 43.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 42.9% | 39.8% | +3.1 pp | 317 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 42.9% of games, vs 39.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 49.3% | 50.4% | −1.0 pp | 225 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 49.3% of games, vs 50.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 10.7% | 12.6% | −1.9 pp | 317 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 10.7% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 15.0% | 16.5% | −1.4 pp | 1,144 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.0% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.1% | 29.6% | −0.5 pp | 1,144 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.1% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 39.0% | 39.2% | −0.2 pp | 1,144 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 39.0% of games, vs 39.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 37.3% | 37.7% | −0.4 pp | 225 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 37.3% of games, vs 37.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.2% | 22.3% | −1.1 pp | 1,144 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.2% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 64.4% | 63.3% | +1.2 pp | 225 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 64.4% of games, vs 63.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 53.2 | 56.1 | −2.8 | 317 | RBs averaged 53.2 rush yds, vs 56.1. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 37.4 | 38.4 | −1.0 | 1,144 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.4 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 230.7 | 225.6 | +5.1 | 225 | QBs averaged 230.7 pass yds, vs 225.6. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 24.0% of games, vs 29.8%. Adjusted: −7.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 24.0%
- Baseline
- 29.8%
- Sample
- 317 player-games
- Adjusted
- −7.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 317 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 24.0% | 29.8% | −5.8 pp | 317 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 24.0% of games, vs 29.8%. Adjusted: −7.7 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 45.1% | 50.1% | −5.0 pp | 317 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 45.1% of games, vs 50.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 40.9% | 43.1% | −2.2 pp | 225 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 40.9% of games, vs 43.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 42.9% | 39.8% | +3.1 pp | 317 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 42.9% of games, vs 39.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 49.3% | 50.4% | −1.0 pp | 225 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 49.3% of games, vs 50.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 10.7% | 12.6% | −1.9 pp | 317 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 10.7% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 15.0% | 16.5% | −1.4 pp | 1,144 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.0% of games, vs 16.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.1% | 29.6% | −0.5 pp | 1,144 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.1% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 39.0% | 39.2% | −0.2 pp | 1,144 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 39.0% of games, vs 39.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 37.3% | 37.7% | −0.4 pp | 225 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 37.3% of games, vs 37.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.2% | 22.3% | −1.1 pp | 1,144 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.2% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 64.4% | 63.3% | +1.2 pp | 225 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 64.4% of games, vs 63.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 53.2 | 56.1 | −2.8 | 317 | RBs averaged 53.2 rush yds, vs 56.1. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 37.4 | 38.4 | −1.0 | 1,144 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.4 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 230.7 | 225.6 | +5.1 | 225 | QBs averaged 230.7 pass yds, vs 225.6. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.1 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Team's first regular-season game
- Baseline
- Other regular-season team-games
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.