NFL · All time: Edge
Season finale (regular season)
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. QBs averaged 204.0 pass yds, vs 227.1. Adjusted: −15.0 vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 204.0
- Baseline
- 227.1
- Sample
- 204 player-games
- Adjusted
- −15.0 vs each player’s own norm
See all 204 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 204.0 | 227.1 | −23.1 | 204 | QBs averaged 204.0 pass yds, vs 227.1. Adjusted: −15.0 vs each player’s own norm. |
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 29.4% | 38.2% | −8.8 pp | 204 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 29.4% of games, vs 38.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−7.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 53.9% | 63.9% | −10.0 pp | 204 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 53.9% of games, vs 63.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 26.5% | 29.8% | −3.4 pp | 986 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.5% of games, vs 29.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 35.9 | 38.6 | −2.7 | 986 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.9 rec yds, vs 38.6. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 36.7% | 40.1% | −3.4 pp | 275 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 36.7% of games, vs 40.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 43.1% | 50.9% | −7.8 pp | 204 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 43.1% of games, vs 50.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 41.7% | 43.1% | −1.4 pp | 204 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 41.7% of games, vs 43.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 13.8% | 12.5% | +1.4 pp | 275 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.8% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 28.4% | 29.5% | −1.2 pp | 275 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.4% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 22.3% | 22.2% | +0.1 pp | 986 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.3% of games, vs 22.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 45.5% | 50.1% | −4.7 pp | 275 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 45.5% of games, vs 50.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 14.6% | 16.6% | −2.0 pp | 986 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.6% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 36.2% | 39.5% | −3.3 pp | 986 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 36.2% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 56.5 | 55.9 | +0.6 | 275 | RBs averaged 56.5 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
- Sample in this window
- 0 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=49 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 49 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 49 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 49 | Too small to publish in this window: n=49 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 34 | Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 34 | Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 49 | Too small to publish in this window: n=49 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 34 | Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 173 | Too small to publish in this window: n=173 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 34 | Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 173 | Too small to publish in this window: n=173 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 173 | Too small to publish in this window: n=173 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 49 | Too small to publish in this window: n=49 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 173 | Too small to publish in this window: n=173 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 49 | Too small to publish in this window: n=49 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 34 | Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 49 | Too small to publish in this window: n=49 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 173 | Too small to publish in this window: n=173 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. QBs averaged 196.1 pass yds, vs 222.7. Adjusted: −22.9 vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 196.1
- Baseline
- 222.7
- Sample
- 135 player-games
- Adjusted
- −22.9 vs each player’s own norm
See all 135 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 196.1 | 222.7 | −26.6 | 135 | QBs averaged 196.1 pass yds, vs 222.7. Adjusted: −22.9 vs each player’s own norm. |
Explained by quality 7 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 26.7% | 35.8% | −9.1 pp | 135 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 26.7% of games, vs 35.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−9.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 31.6% | 39.8% | −8.2 pp | 190 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 31.6% of games, vs 39.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−7.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 50.4% | 62.0% | −11.6 pp | 135 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 50.4% of games, vs 62.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−6.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 24.1% | 29.2% | −5.2 pp | 669 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 24.1% of games, vs 29.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 33.5% | 38.7% | −5.3 pp | 669 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 33.5% of games, vs 38.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 12.6% | 16.4% | −3.8 pp | 669 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.6% of games, vs 16.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 33.6 | 38.0 | −4.4 | 669 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 33.6 rec yds, vs 38.0. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.8 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 7 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 39.3% | 48.4% | −9.2 pp | 135 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 39.3% of games, vs 48.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 44.2% | 49.9% | −5.7 pp | 190 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 44.2% of games, vs 49.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 13.7% | 12.6% | +1.1 pp | 190 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.7% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 35.6% | 40.9% | −5.3 pp | 135 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 35.6% of games, vs 40.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 25.8% | 30.2% | −4.4 pp | 190 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 25.8% of games, vs 30.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 20.6% | 21.6% | −0.9 pp | 669 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.6% of games, vs 21.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 54.1 | 56.0 | −1.9 | 190 | RBs averaged 54.1 rush yds, vs 56.0. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. QBs averaged 204.0 pass yds, vs 227.1. Adjusted: −15.0 vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 204.0
- Baseline
- 227.1
- Sample
- 204 player-games
- Adjusted
- −15.0 vs each player’s own norm
See all 204 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 204.0 | 227.1 | −23.1 | 204 | QBs averaged 204.0 pass yds, vs 227.1. Adjusted: −15.0 vs each player’s own norm. |
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 29.4% | 38.2% | −8.8 pp | 204 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 29.4% of games, vs 38.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−7.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 53.9% | 63.9% | −10.0 pp | 204 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 53.9% of games, vs 63.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 26.5% | 29.8% | −3.4 pp | 986 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.5% of games, vs 29.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 35.9 | 38.6 | −2.7 | 986 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.9 rec yds, vs 38.6. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 36.7% | 40.1% | −3.4 pp | 275 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 36.7% of games, vs 40.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 43.1% | 50.9% | −7.8 pp | 204 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 43.1% of games, vs 50.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 41.7% | 43.1% | −1.4 pp | 204 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 41.7% of games, vs 43.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 13.8% | 12.5% | +1.4 pp | 275 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.8% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 28.4% | 29.5% | −1.2 pp | 275 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.4% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 22.3% | 22.2% | +0.1 pp | 986 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.3% of games, vs 22.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 45.5% | 50.1% | −4.7 pp | 275 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 45.5% of games, vs 50.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 14.6% | 16.6% | −2.0 pp | 986 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.6% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 36.2% | 39.5% | −3.3 pp | 986 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 36.2% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 56.5 | 55.9 | +0.6 | 275 | RBs averaged 56.5 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. QBs averaged 204.0 pass yds, vs 227.1. Adjusted: −15.0 vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 204.0
- Baseline
- 227.1
- Sample
- 204 player-games
- Adjusted
- −15.0 vs each player’s own norm
See all 204 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 204.0 | 227.1 | −23.1 | 204 | QBs averaged 204.0 pass yds, vs 227.1. Adjusted: −15.0 vs each player’s own norm. |
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 29.4% | 38.2% | −8.8 pp | 204 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 29.4% of games, vs 38.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−7.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 53.9% | 63.9% | −10.0 pp | 204 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 53.9% of games, vs 63.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 26.5% | 29.8% | −3.4 pp | 986 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.5% of games, vs 29.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 35.9 | 38.6 | −2.7 | 986 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.9 rec yds, vs 38.6. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 36.7% | 40.1% | −3.4 pp | 275 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 36.7% of games, vs 40.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 43.1% | 50.9% | −7.8 pp | 204 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 43.1% of games, vs 50.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 41.7% | 43.1% | −1.4 pp | 204 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 41.7% of games, vs 43.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 13.8% | 12.5% | +1.4 pp | 275 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.8% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 28.4% | 29.5% | −1.2 pp | 275 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.4% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 22.3% | 22.2% | +0.1 pp | 986 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.3% of games, vs 22.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 45.5% | 50.1% | −4.7 pp | 275 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 45.5% of games, vs 50.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 14.6% | 16.6% | −2.0 pp | 986 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.6% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 36.2% | 39.5% | −3.3 pp | 986 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 36.2% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 56.5 | 55.9 | +0.6 | 275 | RBs averaged 56.5 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Team's last regular-season game, completed seasons only
- Baseline
- Other regular-season games of completed seasons
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.