NFL · All time: Edge

First game back after missing games (any reason)

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 29.1% of games, vs 48.7%. Adjusted: −4.7 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.

In the spot: 29.1%
Baseline: 48.7%
Sample: 808 player-games
Adjusted: −4.7 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 808 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

WR/TE 40+ rec yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 4 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	29.1%	48.7%	−19.6 pp	808	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 29.1% of games, vs 48.7%. Adjusted: −4.7 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	21.7%	37.8%	−16.2 pp	808	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 21.7% of games, vs 37.8%. Adjusted: −3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	195.3	234.8	−39.5	148	QBs averaged 195.3 pass yds, vs 234.8. Adjusted: −16.2 vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	30.8	45.8	−15.0	808	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 30.8 rec yds, vs 45.8. Adjusted: −3.2 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 6 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	34.5%	54.4%	−20.0 pp	148	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 34.5% of games, vs 54.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−8.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	48.0%	67.8%	−19.8 pp	148	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 48.0% of games, vs 67.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−8.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	23.6%	41.6%	−17.9 pp	148	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 23.6% of games, vs 41.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−6.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	31.8%	46.6%	−14.9 pp	148	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 31.8% of games, vs 46.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	20.9%	25.8%	−4.9 pp	808	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.9% of games, vs 25.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	12.5%	21.8%	−9.3 pp	808	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.5% of games, vs 21.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Too small

Too small to publish in this window: n=6 from 6 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Sample in this window: 6 player-games
Floor to publish: 100+ player-games from 30+ games

See all 6 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Too small 10 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	6	Too small to publish in this window: n=6 from 6 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	6	Too small to publish in this window: n=6 from 6 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	6	Too small to publish in this window: n=6 from 6 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	–	–	–	46	Too small to publish in this window: n=46 from 39 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	–	–	–	46	Too small to publish in this window: n=46 from 39 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	–	–	–	46	Too small to publish in this window: n=46 from 39 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	–	–	–	46	Too small to publish in this window: n=46 from 39 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	6	Too small to publish in this window: n=6 from 6 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	6	Too small to publish in this window: n=6 from 6 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	–	–	–	46	Too small to publish in this window: n=46 from 39 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 21.0% of games, vs 45.6%. Adjusted: −11.3 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.

In the spot: 21.0%
Baseline: 45.6%
Sample: 143 player-games
Adjusted: −11.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 143 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

WR/TE 40+ rec yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 3 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	21.0%	45.6%	−24.7 pp	143	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 21.0% of games, vs 45.6%. Adjusted: −11.3 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	14.0%	34.5%	−20.5 pp	143	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 14.0% of games, vs 34.5%. Adjusted: −8.9 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	26.3	43.5	−17.3	143	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 26.3 rec yds, vs 43.5. Adjusted: −6.5 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	9.1%	19.6%	−10.5 pp	143	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 9.1% of games, vs 19.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	18.2%	26.8%	−8.7 pp	143	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 18.2% of games, vs 26.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	24	Too small to publish in this window: n=24 from 23 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	24	Too small to publish in this window: n=24 from 23 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	24	Too small to publish in this window: n=24 from 23 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	24	Too small to publish in this window: n=24 from 23 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	24	Too small to publish in this window: n=24 from 23 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 25.5% of games, vs 48.2%. Adjusted: −6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.

In the spot: 25.5%
Baseline: 48.2%
Sample: 556 player-games
Adjusted: −6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 556 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

WR/TE 40+ rec yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 3 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	25.5%	48.2%	−22.7 pp	556	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 25.5% of games, vs 48.2%. Adjusted: −6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	18.9%	37.4%	−18.5 pp	556	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 18.9% of games, vs 37.4%. Adjusted: −5.7 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	28.3	45.3	−17.1	556	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 28.3 rec yds, vs 45.3. Adjusted: −4.2 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	10.4%	21.6%	−11.2 pp	556	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 10.4% of games, vs 21.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	17.6%	25.5%	−7.9 pp	556	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 17.6% of games, vs 25.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	93	Too small to publish in this window: n=93 from 91 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	93	Too small to publish in this window: n=93 from 91 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	93	Too small to publish in this window: n=93 from 91 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	93	Too small to publish in this window: n=93 from 91 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	93	Too small to publish in this window: n=93 from 91 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

In the spot: 29.1%
Baseline: 48.7%
Sample: 808 player-games
Adjusted: −4.7 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 808 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

WR/TE 40+ rec yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 4 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	29.1%	48.7%	−19.6 pp	808	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 29.1% of games, vs 48.7%. Adjusted: −4.7 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	21.7%	37.8%	−16.2 pp	808	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 21.7% of games, vs 37.8%. Adjusted: −3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	195.3	234.8	−39.5	148	QBs averaged 195.3 pass yds, vs 234.8. Adjusted: −16.2 vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	30.8	45.8	−15.0	808	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 30.8 rec yds, vs 45.8. Adjusted: −3.2 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 6 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	34.5%	54.4%	−20.0 pp	148	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 34.5% of games, vs 54.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−8.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	48.0%	67.8%	−19.8 pp	148	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 48.0% of games, vs 67.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−8.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	23.6%	41.6%	−17.9 pp	148	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 23.6% of games, vs 41.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−6.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	31.8%	46.6%	−14.9 pp	148	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 31.8% of games, vs 46.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	20.9%	25.8%	−4.9 pp	808	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.9% of games, vs 25.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	12.5%	21.8%	−9.3 pp	808	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.5% of games, vs 21.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

In the spot: 29.1%
Baseline: 48.7%
Sample: 808 player-games
Adjusted: −4.7 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 808 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

WR/TE 40+ rec yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 4 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	29.1%	48.7%	−19.6 pp	808	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 29.1% of games, vs 48.7%. Adjusted: −4.7 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	21.7%	37.8%	−16.2 pp	808	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 21.7% of games, vs 37.8%. Adjusted: −3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	195.3	234.8	−39.5	148	QBs averaged 195.3 pass yds, vs 234.8. Adjusted: −16.2 vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	30.8	45.8	−15.0	808	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 30.8 rec yds, vs 45.8. Adjusted: −3.2 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 6 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	34.5%	54.4%	−20.0 pp	148	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 34.5% of games, vs 54.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−8.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	48.0%	67.8%	−19.8 pp	148	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 48.0% of games, vs 67.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−8.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	23.6%	41.6%	−17.9 pp	148	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 23.6% of games, vs 41.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−6.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	31.8%	46.6%	−14.9 pp	148	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 31.8% of games, vs 46.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	20.9%	25.8%	−4.9 pp	808	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.9% of games, vs 25.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	12.5%	21.8%	−9.3 pp	808	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.5% of games, vs 21.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Same team & season; NFL missed 1+ team game, NBA/NHL 3+ team games with no stored row; previous game was a regular role (NFL snap>=50%, NBA 20+ min, NHL 12+ TOI). Reason (injury/illness/scratch/suspension) NOT known
Baseline: Same players coming off a played previous team game (0 missed)
All-time seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.