NFL · All time: Edge

Rain

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Games averaged 42.4 combined points, vs 44.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record.

In the spot: 42.4
Baseline: 44.7
Sample: 245 games
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 245 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Avg combined points: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 3 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	42.4	44.7	−2.3	245	Games averaged 42.4 combined points, vs 44.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	41.6%	47.7%	−6.1 pp	502	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 41.6% of games, vs 47.7%. Adjusted: −7.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	26.3%	28.6%	−2.3 pp	2,493	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.3% of games, vs 28.6%. Adjusted: −2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	35.3	37.0	−1.7	2,493	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.3 rec yds, vs 37.0. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 14 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	56.6%	61.2%	−4.6 pp	502	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 56.6% of games, vs 61.2%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	30.7%	35.1%	−4.5 pp	502	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 30.7% of games, vs 35.1%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.5%	37.5%	−2.0 pp	2,493	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.5% of games, vs 37.5%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	39.0%	40.0%	−1.0 pp	502	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 39.0% of games, vs 40.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	48.3%	48.3%	+0.0 pp	695	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.3% of games, vs 48.3%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	20.0%	21.5%	−1.4 pp	2,493	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.0% of games, vs 21.5%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	54.3%	57.4%	−3.2 pp	245	Home teams won 54.3%, vs 57.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.8%	12.8%	+0.1 pp	695	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.8% of games, vs 12.8%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	37.0%	38.6%	−1.6 pp	695	RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.0% of games, vs 38.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	14.2%	15.6%	−1.3 pp	2,493	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.2% of games, vs 15.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.8%	29.4%	−0.6 pp	695	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.8% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	7.3%	5.4%	+2.0 pp	245	7.3% of games went to overtime, vs 5.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	212.6	220.5	−7.9	502	QBs averaged 212.6 pass yds, vs 220.5. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.3	55.2	+0.0	695	RBs averaged 55.3 rush yds, vs 55.2. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.1% of games, vs 30.0%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 26.1%
Baseline: 30.0%
Sample: 357 player-games
Adjusted: −3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 357 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	26.1%	30.0%	−4.0 pp	357	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.1% of games, vs 30.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	13.2%	17.4%	−4.2 pp	357	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.2% of games, vs 17.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	23.2%	22.0%	+1.2 pp	357	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.2% of games, vs 22.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	36.1%	38.2%	−2.1 pp	357	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 36.1% of games, vs 38.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	34.7	37.8	−3.1	357	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 34.7 rec yds, vs 37.8. Not a clear difference.

Too small 13 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	–	–	–	34	Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 34 games (the floor is 200+ games).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	–	–	–	90	Too small to publish in this window: n=90 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	67	Too small to publish in this window: n=67 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	67	Too small to publish in this window: n=67 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	–	–	–	90	Too small to publish in this window: n=90 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	–	–	–	90	Too small to publish in this window: n=90 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	–	–	–	34	Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 34 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	67	Too small to publish in this window: n=67 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	–	–	–	90	Too small to publish in this window: n=90 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	67	Too small to publish in this window: n=67 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	–	–	–	34	Too small to publish in this window: n=34 from 34 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	67	Too small to publish in this window: n=67 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	–	–	–	90	Too small to publish in this window: n=90 from 34 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 54.7% of games, vs 48.7%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 54.7%
Baseline: 48.7%
Sample: 106 player-games
Adjusted: +10.1 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 106 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 10 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	54.7%	48.7%	+6.0 pp	106	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 54.7% of games, vs 48.7%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	34.0%	28.5%	+5.5 pp	106	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 34.0% of games, vs 28.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	42.5%	38.3%	+4.2 pp	106	RBs reached 1+ TD in 42.5% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	14.8%	12.5%	+2.3 pp	365	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.8% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	13.2%	13.4%	−0.2 pp	106	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.2% of games, vs 13.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	25.5%	23.5%	+2.0 pp	365	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 25.5% of games, vs 23.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	34.2%	33.8%	+0.4 pp	365	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 34.2% of games, vs 33.8%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	20.8%	21.2%	−0.4 pp	365	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.8% of games, vs 21.2%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	56.5	56.1	+0.4	106	RBs averaged 56.5 rush yds, vs 56.1. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	34.2	34.2	+0.0	365	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 34.2 rec yds, vs 34.2. Not a clear difference.

Too small 8 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	–	–	–	35	Too small to publish in this window: n=35 from 35 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	71	Too small to publish in this window: n=71 from 35 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	71	Too small to publish in this window: n=71 from 35 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	71	Too small to publish in this window: n=71 from 35 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	71	Too small to publish in this window: n=71 from 35 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	–	–	–	35	Too small to publish in this window: n=35 from 35 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	–	–	–	35	Too small to publish in this window: n=35 from 35 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	71	Too small to publish in this window: n=71 from 35 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 41.7% of games, vs 47.8%. Adjusted: −7.9 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 41.7%
Baseline: 47.8%
Sample: 448 player-games
Adjusted: −7.9 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 448 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 225+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	41.7%	47.8%	−6.0 pp	448	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 41.7% of games, vs 47.8%. Adjusted: −7.9 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	26.2%	28.6%	−2.4 pp	2,233	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.2% of games, vs 28.6%. Adjusted: −2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Myth checked 16 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	42.5	44.7	−2.2	219	Games averaged 42.5 combined points, vs 44.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	56.9%	61.1%	−4.1 pp	448	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 56.9% of games, vs 61.1%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	31.9%	35.3%	−3.4 pp	448	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 31.9% of games, vs 35.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	48.6%	48.0%	+0.6 pp	625	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.6% of games, vs 48.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.6%	37.7%	−2.1 pp	2,233	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.6% of games, vs 37.7%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	37.1%	38.8%	−1.7 pp	625	RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.1% of games, vs 38.8%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	40.2%	39.6%	+0.6 pp	448	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 40.2% of games, vs 39.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	14.3%	15.6%	−1.3 pp	2,233	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.3% of games, vs 15.6%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	54.3%	57.1%	−2.8 pp	219	Home teams won 54.3%, vs 57.1%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	20.2%	21.4%	−1.2 pp	2,233	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.2% of games, vs 21.4%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	6.8%	5.5%	+1.4 pp	219	6.8% of games went to overtime, vs 5.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.0%	13.0%	−1.0 pp	625	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.0% of games, vs 13.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.5%	29.7%	−1.2 pp	625	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.5% of games, vs 29.7%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	213.6	220.3	−6.7	448	QBs averaged 213.6 pass yds, vs 220.3. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	35.4	37.0	−1.6	2,233	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.4 rec yds, vs 37.0. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.0	55.2	−0.2	625	RBs averaged 55.0 rush yds, vs 55.2. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Games averaged 42.4 combined points, vs 44.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record.

In the spot: 42.4
Baseline: 44.7
Sample: 245 games
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 245 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Avg combined points: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 3 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	42.4	44.7	−2.3	245	Games averaged 42.4 combined points, vs 44.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	41.6%	47.7%	−6.1 pp	502	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 41.6% of games, vs 47.7%. Adjusted: −7.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	26.3%	28.6%	−2.3 pp	2,493	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.3% of games, vs 28.6%. Adjusted: −2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	35.3	37.0	−1.7	2,493	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.3 rec yds, vs 37.0. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 14 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	56.6%	61.2%	−4.6 pp	502	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 56.6% of games, vs 61.2%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	30.7%	35.1%	−4.5 pp	502	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 30.7% of games, vs 35.1%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.5%	37.5%	−2.0 pp	2,493	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.5% of games, vs 37.5%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	39.0%	40.0%	−1.0 pp	502	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 39.0% of games, vs 40.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	48.3%	48.3%	+0.0 pp	695	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.3% of games, vs 48.3%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	20.0%	21.5%	−1.4 pp	2,493	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.0% of games, vs 21.5%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	54.3%	57.4%	−3.2 pp	245	Home teams won 54.3%, vs 57.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.8%	12.8%	+0.1 pp	695	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.8% of games, vs 12.8%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	37.0%	38.6%	−1.6 pp	695	RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.0% of games, vs 38.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	14.2%	15.6%	−1.3 pp	2,493	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.2% of games, vs 15.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.8%	29.4%	−0.6 pp	695	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.8% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	7.3%	5.4%	+2.0 pp	245	7.3% of games went to overtime, vs 5.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	212.6	220.5	−7.9	502	QBs averaged 212.6 pass yds, vs 220.5. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.3	55.2	+0.0	695	RBs averaged 55.3 rush yds, vs 55.2. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Games averaged 42.4 combined points, vs 44.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record.

In the spot: 42.4
Baseline: 44.7
Sample: 245 games
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 245 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Avg combined points: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 3 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	42.4	44.7	−2.3	245	Games averaged 42.4 combined points, vs 44.7. A scoring average, not an over/under record.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	41.6%	47.7%	−6.1 pp	502	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 41.6% of games, vs 47.7%. Adjusted: −7.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	26.3%	28.6%	−2.3 pp	2,493	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.3% of games, vs 28.6%. Adjusted: −2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	35.3	37.0	−1.7	2,493	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.3 rec yds, vs 37.0. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 14 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	56.6%	61.2%	−4.6 pp	502	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 56.6% of games, vs 61.2%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	30.7%	35.1%	−4.5 pp	502	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 30.7% of games, vs 35.1%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.5%	37.5%	−2.0 pp	2,493	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.5% of games, vs 37.5%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	39.0%	40.0%	−1.0 pp	502	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 39.0% of games, vs 40.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	48.3%	48.3%	+0.0 pp	695	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.3% of games, vs 48.3%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	20.0%	21.5%	−1.4 pp	2,493	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.0% of games, vs 21.5%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	54.3%	57.4%	−3.2 pp	245	Home teams won 54.3%, vs 57.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.8%	12.8%	+0.1 pp	695	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.8% of games, vs 12.8%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	37.0%	38.6%	−1.6 pp	695	RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.0% of games, vs 38.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	14.2%	15.6%	−1.3 pp	2,493	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.2% of games, vs 15.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.8%	29.4%	−0.6 pp	695	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.8% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	7.3%	5.4%	+2.0 pp	245	7.3% of games went to overtime, vs 5.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	212.6	220.5	−7.9	502	QBs averaged 212.6 pass yds, vs 220.5. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.3	55.2	+0.0	695	RBs averaged 55.3 rush yds, vs 55.2. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. On this weather spot each game shows that day’s temperature, wind, rain, snow and roof from the validated game-weather record. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Rain affirmative in narrative or modelled >0 mm in the 4-hour kickoff window. Weather and roof from a validated kickoff-weather record; outdoor games only
Baseline: Other outdoor games with known rain status
All-time seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.