NFL · All time: Explained by quality
Playoffs (any round)
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 54.1% of games, vs 37.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 54.1%
- Baseline
- 37.7%
- Sample
- 157 player-games
- Adjusted
- +5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 157 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 7 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 54.1% | 37.7% | +16.5 pp | 157 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 54.1% of games, vs 37.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 25.8% | 22.2% | +3.5 pp | 800 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 25.8% of games, vs 22.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 63.1% | 50.3% | +12.7 pp | 157 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 63.1% of games, vs 50.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 33.4% | 29.6% | +3.8 pp | 800 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 33.4% of games, vs 29.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 20.1% | 16.4% | +3.7 pp | 800 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 20.1% of games, vs 16.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 75.2% | 63.3% | +11.8 pp | 157 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 75.2% of games, vs 63.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 247.3 | 225.9 | +21.4 | 157 | QBs averaged 247.3 pass yds, vs 225.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 8 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 46.5% | 49.8% | −3.3 pp | 215 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 46.5% of games, vs 49.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 38.1% | 40.0% | −1.9 pp | 215 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 38.1% of games, vs 40.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 9.3% | 12.5% | −3.2 pp | 215 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 9.3% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 27.9% | 29.4% | −1.5 pp | 215 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.9% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 51.6% | 43.0% | +8.6 pp | 157 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 51.6% of games, vs 43.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 41.4% | 39.1% | +2.2 pp | 800 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 41.4% of games, vs 39.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 52.1 | 55.9 | −3.8 | 215 | RBs averaged 52.1 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 41.1 | 38.3 | +2.8 | 800 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 41.1 rec yds, vs 38.3. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
- Sample in this window
- 0 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=26 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 26 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 26 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 26 | Too small to publish in this window: n=26 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 39 | Too small to publish in this window: n=39 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 39 | Too small to publish in this window: n=39 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 39 | Too small to publish in this window: n=39 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 26 | Too small to publish in this window: n=26 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 26 | Too small to publish in this window: n=26 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 26 | Too small to publish in this window: n=26 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 135 | Too small to publish in this window: n=135 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 135 | Too small to publish in this window: n=135 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 135 | Too small to publish in this window: n=135 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 135 | Too small to publish in this window: n=135 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 39 | Too small to publish in this window: n=39 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 39 | Too small to publish in this window: n=39 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 26 | Too small to publish in this window: n=26 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 135 | Too small to publish in this window: n=135 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 52.9% of games, vs 35.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+8.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 52.9%
- Baseline
- 35.5%
- Sample
- 104 player-games
- Adjusted
- +8.0 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 104 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 52.9% | 35.5% | +17.4 pp | 104 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 52.9% of games, vs 35.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+8.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 62.5% | 48.0% | +14.5 pp | 104 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 62.5% of games, vs 48.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 75.0% | 61.6% | +13.4 pp | 104 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 75.0% of games, vs 61.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 242.6 | 221.8 | +20.8 | 104 | QBs averaged 242.6 pass yds, vs 221.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 11 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 45.7% | 49.5% | −3.8 pp | 151 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 45.7% of games, vs 49.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 39.1% | 39.5% | −0.4 pp | 151 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 39.1% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 29.1% | 29.8% | −0.7 pp | 151 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 29.1% of games, vs 29.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.6% | 12.6% | −0.0 pp | 151 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.6% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 50.0% | 40.8% | +9.2 pp | 104 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 50.0% of games, vs 40.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 39.0% | 38.3% | +0.6 pp | 534 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 39.0% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 30.7% | 28.9% | +1.8 pp | 534 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 30.7% of games, vs 28.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 24.7% | 21.6% | +3.1 pp | 534 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 24.7% of games, vs 21.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 18.0% | 16.1% | +1.9 pp | 534 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 18.0% of games, vs 16.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 52.9 | 55.8 | −2.9 | 151 | RBs averaged 52.9 rush yds, vs 55.8. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 39.3 | 37.7 | +1.6 | 534 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 39.3 rec yds, vs 37.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 54.1% of games, vs 37.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 54.1%
- Baseline
- 37.7%
- Sample
- 157 player-games
- Adjusted
- +5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 157 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 7 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 54.1% | 37.7% | +16.5 pp | 157 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 54.1% of games, vs 37.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 25.8% | 22.2% | +3.5 pp | 800 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 25.8% of games, vs 22.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 63.1% | 50.3% | +12.7 pp | 157 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 63.1% of games, vs 50.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 33.4% | 29.6% | +3.8 pp | 800 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 33.4% of games, vs 29.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 20.1% | 16.4% | +3.7 pp | 800 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 20.1% of games, vs 16.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 75.2% | 63.3% | +11.8 pp | 157 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 75.2% of games, vs 63.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 247.3 | 225.9 | +21.4 | 157 | QBs averaged 247.3 pass yds, vs 225.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 8 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 46.5% | 49.8% | −3.3 pp | 215 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 46.5% of games, vs 49.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 38.1% | 40.0% | −1.9 pp | 215 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 38.1% of games, vs 40.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 9.3% | 12.5% | −3.2 pp | 215 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 9.3% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 27.9% | 29.4% | −1.5 pp | 215 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.9% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 51.6% | 43.0% | +8.6 pp | 157 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 51.6% of games, vs 43.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 41.4% | 39.1% | +2.2 pp | 800 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 41.4% of games, vs 39.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 52.1 | 55.9 | −3.8 | 215 | RBs averaged 52.1 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 41.1 | 38.3 | +2.8 | 800 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 41.1 rec yds, vs 38.3. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 54.1% of games, vs 37.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 54.1%
- Baseline
- 37.7%
- Sample
- 157 player-games
- Adjusted
- +5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 157 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 7 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 54.1% | 37.7% | +16.5 pp | 157 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 54.1% of games, vs 37.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 25.8% | 22.2% | +3.5 pp | 800 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 25.8% of games, vs 22.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 63.1% | 50.3% | +12.7 pp | 157 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 63.1% of games, vs 50.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 33.4% | 29.6% | +3.8 pp | 800 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 33.4% of games, vs 29.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 20.1% | 16.4% | +3.7 pp | 800 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 20.1% of games, vs 16.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 75.2% | 63.3% | +11.8 pp | 157 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 75.2% of games, vs 63.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 247.3 | 225.9 | +21.4 | 157 | QBs averaged 247.3 pass yds, vs 225.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 8 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 46.5% | 49.8% | −3.3 pp | 215 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 46.5% of games, vs 49.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 38.1% | 40.0% | −1.9 pp | 215 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 38.1% of games, vs 40.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 9.3% | 12.5% | −3.2 pp | 215 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 9.3% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 27.9% | 29.4% | −1.5 pp | 215 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.9% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 51.6% | 43.0% | +8.6 pp | 157 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 51.6% of games, vs 43.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 41.4% | 39.1% | +2.2 pp | 800 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 41.4% of games, vs 39.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 52.1 | 55.9 | −3.8 | 215 | RBs averaged 52.1 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 41.1 | 38.3 | +2.8 | 800 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 41.1 rec yds, vs 38.3. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Cached ESPN season.type = 3 (NFL/NBA) or NHL gameType = 3. Every NFL playoff game is an elimination game
- Baseline
- Regular-season games of the same stored seasons
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.