NFL · All time: Edge

Off a bye (13+ days)

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 58.9% of games in this spot, vs 49.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: +6.8 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 58.9%
Baseline: 49.2%
Sample: 231 team-games
Adjusted: +6.8 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 231 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 4 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	58.9%	49.2%	+9.7 pp	231	Teams won 58.9% of games in this spot, vs 49.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: +6.8 pp vs expectation for team strength.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	37.0%	29.2%	+7.9 pp	316	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 37.0% of games, vs 29.2%. Adjusted: +8.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	56.6%	49.5%	+7.2 pp	316	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 56.6% of games, vs 49.5%. Adjusted: +7.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	2.3	-0.2	+2.5	231	Average margin +2.3 vs −0.2 in the baseline. Adjusted: +1.5 vs expectation for team strength.

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	21.2	23.1	−1.9	231	Teams allowed 21.2 points a game, vs 23.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 15 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	62.5%	63.9%	−1.4 pp	240	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 62.5% of games, vs 63.9%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	37.1%	38.5%	−1.4 pp	240	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 37.1% of games, vs 38.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	43.4%	39.5%	+3.9 pp	316	RBs reached 1+ TD in 43.4% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	37.2%	39.4%	−2.2 pp	1,169	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.2% of games, vs 39.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	42.1%	43.6%	−1.5 pp	240	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 42.1% of games, vs 43.6%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	50.4%	51.0%	−0.6 pp	240	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 50.4% of games, vs 51.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.6%	29.9%	−1.3 pp	1,169	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.6% of games, vs 29.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	22.2%	22.5%	−0.2 pp	1,169	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.2% of games, vs 22.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	16.4%	16.7%	−0.2 pp	1,169	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.4% of games, vs 16.7%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	13.6%	12.4%	+1.2 pp	316	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.6% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	221.9	226.9	−5.0	240	QBs averaged 221.9 pass yds, vs 226.9. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	59.4	55.6	+3.8	316	RBs averaged 59.4 rush yds, vs 55.6. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.4	38.6	−1.2	1,169	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.4 rec yds, vs 38.6. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	23.4	22.9	+0.5	231	Teams scored 23.4 points a game, vs 22.9. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	44.6	46.0	−1.4	231	Teams averaged 44.6 game total, vs 46.0. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Too small

Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 14 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Sample in this window: 14 team-games
Floor to publish: 200+ games

See all 14 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Too small 20 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	14	Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 14 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	14	Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	–	–	–	18	Too small to publish in this window: n=18 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	–	–	–	18	Too small to publish in this window: n=18 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	14	Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	14	Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	14	Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	–	–	–	18	Too small to publish in this window: n=18 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	–	–	–	18	Too small to publish in this window: n=18 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	–	–	–	74	Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	–	–	–	74	Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	–	–	–	74	Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	–	–	–	74	Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	14	Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	–	–	–	18	Too small to publish in this window: n=18 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	14	Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 14 games (the floor is 200+ games).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	–	–	–	74	Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 14 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	14	Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 14 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	14	Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 14 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	14	Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 14 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.5% of games, vs 35.4%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 37.5%
Baseline: 35.4%
Sample: 184 player-games
Adjusted: −1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 184 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	37.5%	35.4%	+2.1 pp	184	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.5% of games, vs 35.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	24.5%	21.9%	+2.5 pp	184	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 24.5% of games, vs 21.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.8%	25.7%	+3.1 pp	184	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.8% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	15.8%	14.4%	+1.4 pp	184	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.8% of games, vs 14.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.0	35.9	+1.1	184	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.0 rec yds, vs 35.9. Not a clear difference.

Too small 15 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	36	Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 32 games (the floor is 200+ games).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	–	–	–	48	Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 32 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	36	Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 32 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	–	–	–	48	Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 32 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	36	Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 32 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	–	–	–	48	Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 32 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	–	–	–	48	Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 32 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	36	Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 32 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	36	Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 32 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	–	–	–	48	Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 32 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	36	Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 32 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	36	Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 32 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	36	Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 32 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	36	Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 32 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	36	Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 32 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 37.9% of games, vs 29.8%. Adjusted: +8.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 37.9%
Baseline: 29.8%
Sample: 219 player-games
Adjusted: +8.6 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 219 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

RB 70+ rush yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	37.9%	29.8%	+8.1 pp	219	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 37.9% of games, vs 29.8%. Adjusted: +8.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Myth checked 14 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	56.2%	49.3%	+6.8 pp	219	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 56.2% of games, vs 49.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	42.5%	39.0%	+3.5 pp	219	RBs reached 1+ TD in 42.5% of games, vs 39.0%. Not a clear difference.
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	62.4%	62.4%	+0.1 pp	165	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 62.4% of games, vs 62.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	53.3%	48.7%	+4.6 pp	165	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 53.3% of games, vs 48.7%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	37.6%	36.6%	+0.9 pp	165	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 37.6% of games, vs 36.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	38.5%	38.5%	+0.0 pp	805	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.5% of games, vs 38.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	16.4%	16.4%	+0.0 pp	805	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.4% of games, vs 16.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	29.4%	29.1%	+0.3 pp	805	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.4% of games, vs 29.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	13.2%	12.6%	+0.6 pp	219	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.2% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	22.9%	21.8%	+1.1 pp	805	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.9% of games, vs 21.8%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	43.0%	41.4%	+1.6 pp	165	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 43.0% of games, vs 41.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	223.6	222.8	+0.7	165	QBs averaged 223.6 pass yds, vs 222.8. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	59.2	55.6	+3.5	219	RBs averaged 59.2 rush yds, vs 55.6. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.5	37.9	−0.4	805	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.5 rec yds, vs 37.9. Not a clear difference.

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	160	Too small to publish in this window: n=160 from 143 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	160	Too small to publish in this window: n=160 from 143 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	160	Too small to publish in this window: n=160 from 143 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	160	Too small to publish in this window: n=160 from 143 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	160	Too small to publish in this window: n=160 from 143 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 58.9% of games in this spot, vs 49.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: +6.8 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 58.9%
Baseline: 49.2%
Sample: 231 team-games
Adjusted: +6.8 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 231 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 4 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	58.9%	49.2%	+9.7 pp	231	Teams won 58.9% of games in this spot, vs 49.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: +6.8 pp vs expectation for team strength.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	37.0%	29.2%	+7.9 pp	316	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 37.0% of games, vs 29.2%. Adjusted: +8.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	56.6%	49.5%	+7.2 pp	316	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 56.6% of games, vs 49.5%. Adjusted: +7.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	2.3	-0.2	+2.5	231	Average margin +2.3 vs −0.2 in the baseline. Adjusted: +1.5 vs expectation for team strength.

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	21.2	23.1	−1.9	231	Teams allowed 21.2 points a game, vs 23.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 15 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	62.5%	63.9%	−1.4 pp	240	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 62.5% of games, vs 63.9%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	37.1%	38.5%	−1.4 pp	240	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 37.1% of games, vs 38.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	43.4%	39.5%	+3.9 pp	316	RBs reached 1+ TD in 43.4% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	37.2%	39.4%	−2.2 pp	1,169	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.2% of games, vs 39.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	42.1%	43.6%	−1.5 pp	240	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 42.1% of games, vs 43.6%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	50.4%	51.0%	−0.6 pp	240	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 50.4% of games, vs 51.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.6%	29.9%	−1.3 pp	1,169	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.6% of games, vs 29.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	22.2%	22.5%	−0.2 pp	1,169	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.2% of games, vs 22.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	16.4%	16.7%	−0.2 pp	1,169	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.4% of games, vs 16.7%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	13.6%	12.4%	+1.2 pp	316	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.6% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	221.9	226.9	−5.0	240	QBs averaged 221.9 pass yds, vs 226.9. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	59.4	55.6	+3.8	316	RBs averaged 59.4 rush yds, vs 55.6. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.4	38.6	−1.2	1,169	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.4 rec yds, vs 38.6. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	23.4	22.9	+0.5	231	Teams scored 23.4 points a game, vs 22.9. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	44.6	46.0	−1.4	231	Teams averaged 44.6 game total, vs 46.0. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 58.9% of games in this spot, vs 49.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: +6.8 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 58.9%
Baseline: 49.2%
Sample: 231 team-games
Adjusted: +6.8 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 231 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 4 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	58.9%	49.2%	+9.7 pp	231	Teams won 58.9% of games in this spot, vs 49.2% in the baseline. Adjusted: +6.8 pp vs expectation for team strength.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	37.0%	29.2%	+7.9 pp	316	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 37.0% of games, vs 29.2%. Adjusted: +8.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	56.6%	49.5%	+7.2 pp	316	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 56.6% of games, vs 49.5%. Adjusted: +7.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	2.3	-0.2	+2.5	231	Average margin +2.3 vs −0.2 in the baseline. Adjusted: +1.5 vs expectation for team strength.

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	21.2	23.1	−1.9	231	Teams allowed 21.2 points a game, vs 23.1. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 15 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	62.5%	63.9%	−1.4 pp	240	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 62.5% of games, vs 63.9%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	37.1%	38.5%	−1.4 pp	240	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 37.1% of games, vs 38.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	43.4%	39.5%	+3.9 pp	316	RBs reached 1+ TD in 43.4% of games, vs 39.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	37.2%	39.4%	−2.2 pp	1,169	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.2% of games, vs 39.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	42.1%	43.6%	−1.5 pp	240	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 42.1% of games, vs 43.6%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	50.4%	51.0%	−0.6 pp	240	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 50.4% of games, vs 51.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.6%	29.9%	−1.3 pp	1,169	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.6% of games, vs 29.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	22.2%	22.5%	−0.2 pp	1,169	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.2% of games, vs 22.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	16.4%	16.7%	−0.2 pp	1,169	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.4% of games, vs 16.7%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	13.6%	12.4%	+1.2 pp	316	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.6% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	221.9	226.9	−5.0	240	QBs averaged 221.9 pass yds, vs 226.9. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	59.4	55.6	+3.8	316	RBs averaged 59.4 rush yds, vs 55.6. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.4	38.6	−1.2	1,169	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.4 rec yds, vs 38.6. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	23.4	22.9	+0.5	231	Teams scored 23.4 points a game, vs 22.9. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	44.6	46.0	−1.4	231	Teams averaged 44.6 game total, vs 46.0. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Days since previous game >= 13, same season (includes playoff byes)
Baseline: Team-games with fewer than 13 days of rest
All-time seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.