NFL · All time: Explained by quality
First game with a new team
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 7.8% of games, vs 16.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 7.8%
- Baseline
- 16.9%
- Sample
- 344 player-games
- Adjusted
- −4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 344 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 7.8% | 16.9% | −9.1 pp | 344 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 7.8% of games, vs 16.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 20.3% | 30.2% | −9.8 pp | 344 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 20.3% of games, vs 30.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 29.7% | 39.7% | −10.1 pp | 344 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 29.7% of games, vs 39.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 29.6 | 38.9 | −9.2 | 344 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 29.6 rec yds, vs 38.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 1 measure
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 19.2% | 22.6% | −3.4 pp | 344 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.2% of games, vs 22.6%. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 48 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 48 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 48 | Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 48 | Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 48 | Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 48 | Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 48 | Too small to publish in this window: n=48 from 29 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=63 from 45 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 63 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 63 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 63 | Too small to publish in this window: n=63 from 45 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 63 | Too small to publish in this window: n=63 from 45 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 63 | Too small to publish in this window: n=63 from 45 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 63 | Too small to publish in this window: n=63 from 45 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 63 | Too small to publish in this window: n=63 from 45 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 7.5% of games, vs 16.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 7.5%
- Baseline
- 16.5%
- Sample
- 279 player-games
- Adjusted
- −3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 279 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 7.5% | 16.5% | −9.0 pp | 279 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 7.5% of games, vs 16.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 28.7% | 38.8% | −10.2 pp | 279 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 28.7% of games, vs 38.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 19.7% | 29.5% | −9.8 pp | 279 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 19.7% of games, vs 29.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 29.0 | 38.2 | −9.2 | 279 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 29.0 rec yds, vs 38.2. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 1 measure
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 17.6% | 21.9% | −4.4 pp | 279 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 17.6% of games, vs 21.9%. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 7.8% of games, vs 16.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 7.8%
- Baseline
- 16.9%
- Sample
- 344 player-games
- Adjusted
- −4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 344 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 7.8% | 16.9% | −9.1 pp | 344 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 7.8% of games, vs 16.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 20.3% | 30.2% | −9.8 pp | 344 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 20.3% of games, vs 30.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 29.7% | 39.7% | −10.1 pp | 344 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 29.7% of games, vs 39.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 29.6 | 38.9 | −9.2 | 344 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 29.6 rec yds, vs 38.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 1 measure
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 19.2% | 22.6% | −3.4 pp | 344 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.2% of games, vs 22.6%. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 7.8% of games, vs 16.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 7.8%
- Baseline
- 16.9%
- Sample
- 344 player-games
- Adjusted
- −4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 344 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 7.8% | 16.9% | −9.1 pp | 344 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 7.8% of games, vs 16.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 20.3% | 30.2% | −9.8 pp | 344 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 20.3% of games, vs 30.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 29.7% | 39.7% | −10.1 pp | 344 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 29.7% of games, vs 39.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 29.6 | 38.9 | −9.2 | 344 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 29.6 rec yds, vs 38.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 1 measure
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 19.2% | 22.6% | −3.4 pp | 344 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.2% of games, vs 22.6%. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Team differs from the player's previous stored game. LEFT-CENSORED: a player's first stored game is never flagged
- Baseline
- Player-games with a previous stored game on the same team
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.