NFL · All time: Edge

Revenge: lost the last meeting

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 58.0% of games, vs 66.4%. Adjusted: −5.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 58.0%
Baseline: 66.4%
Sample: 835 player-games
Adjusted: −5.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 835 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 200+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	58.0%	66.4%	−8.4 pp	835	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 58.0% of games, vs 66.4%. Adjusted: −5.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 6 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	44.3%	55.3%	−11.0 pp	797	Teams won 44.3% of games in this spot, vs 55.3% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.5 pp vs expectation for team strength).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	44.7%	53.4%	−8.8 pp	835	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 44.7% of games, vs 53.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	38.8%	46.1%	−7.3 pp	835	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 38.8% of games, vs 46.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	15.6%	17.4%	−1.9 pp	4,055	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.6% of games, vs 17.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	217.8	231.1	−13.4	835	QBs averaged 217.8 pass yds, vs 231.1. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−5.8 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.9	1.9	−3.8	797	Average margin −1.9 vs +1.9 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 vs expectation for team strength).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	21.8	23.7	−1.9	797	Teams scored 21.8 points a game, vs 23.7. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	23.8	21.8	+1.9	797	Teams allowed 23.8 points a game, vs 21.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 11 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	27.1%	30.6%	−3.4 pp	1,106	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.1% of games, vs 30.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	37.7%	40.4%	−2.7 pp	1,106	RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.7% of games, vs 40.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	34.1%	39.1%	−4.9 pp	835	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 34.1% of games, vs 39.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.1%	12.1%	+0.1 pp	1,106	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.1% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	47.7%	48.8%	−1.1 pp	1,106	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 47.7% of games, vs 48.8%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.4%	30.0%	−1.6 pp	4,055	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.4% of games, vs 30.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	38.2%	39.0%	−0.8 pp	4,055	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.2% of games, vs 39.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.2%	22.9%	−1.8 pp	4,055	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.2% of games, vs 22.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	54.5	55.9	−1.4	1,106	RBs averaged 54.5 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.5	38.8	−1.4	4,055	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.5 rec yds, vs 38.8. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	45.6	45.6	+0.0	797	Teams averaged 45.6 game total, vs 45.6. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.7% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 29.7%
Baseline: 26.6%
Sample: 317 player-games
Adjusted: +3.4 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 317 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	29.7%	26.6%	+3.1 pp	317	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.7% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	38.2%	36.0%	+2.2 pp	317	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.2% of games, vs 36.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	15.5%	15.1%	+0.4 pp	317	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.5% of games, vs 15.1%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	22.4%	23.0%	−0.6 pp	317	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.4% of games, vs 23.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	36.8	35.7	+1.0	317	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.8 rec yds, vs 35.7. Not a clear difference.

Too small 15 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	61	Too small to publish in this window: n=61 from 61 games (the floor is 200+ games).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	–	–	–	85	Too small to publish in this window: n=85 from 61 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	–	–	–	85	Too small to publish in this window: n=85 from 61 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	63	Too small to publish in this window: n=63 from 60 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	63	Too small to publish in this window: n=63 from 60 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	63	Too small to publish in this window: n=63 from 60 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	–	–	–	85	Too small to publish in this window: n=85 from 61 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	63	Too small to publish in this window: n=63 from 60 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	–	–	–	85	Too small to publish in this window: n=85 from 61 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	63	Too small to publish in this window: n=63 from 60 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	–	–	–	85	Too small to publish in this window: n=85 from 61 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	61	Too small to publish in this window: n=61 from 61 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	61	Too small to publish in this window: n=61 from 61 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	61	Too small to publish in this window: n=61 from 61 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	61	Too small to publish in this window: n=61 from 61 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 35.7% of games, vs 52.9%. Adjusted: −18.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 35.7%
Baseline: 52.9%
Sample: 143 player-games
Adjusted: −18.2 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 143 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 225+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	35.7%	52.9%	−17.2 pp	143	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 35.7% of games, vs 52.9%. Adjusted: −18.2 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Myth checked 14 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	47.6%	60.0%	−12.4 pp	143	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 47.6% of games, vs 60.0%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	28.0%	37.9%	−9.9 pp	143	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 28.0% of games, vs 37.9%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	43.4%	37.1%	+6.2 pp	143	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 43.4% of games, vs 37.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	50.8%	44.6%	+6.2 pp	193	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 50.8% of games, vs 44.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.5%	24.5%	+4.0 pp	193	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.5% of games, vs 24.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	11.9%	8.8%	+3.1 pp	193	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.9% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	32.9%	36.5%	−3.5 pp	692	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 32.9% of games, vs 36.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	24.6%	26.9%	−2.4 pp	692	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 24.6% of games, vs 26.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	12.0%	15.2%	−3.2 pp	692	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.0% of games, vs 15.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	19.8%	21.4%	−1.6 pp	692	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.8% of games, vs 21.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	37.3%	37.3%	+0.1 pp	193	RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.3% of games, vs 37.3%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	201.5	219.7	−18.2	143	QBs averaged 201.5 pass yds, vs 219.7. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	54.4	50.8	+3.6	193	RBs averaged 54.4 rush yds, vs 50.8. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	34.5	36.6	−2.1	692	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 34.5 rec yds, vs 36.6. Not a clear difference.

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	136	Too small to publish in this window: n=136 from 136 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	136	Too small to publish in this window: n=136 from 136 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	136	Too small to publish in this window: n=136 from 136 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	136	Too small to publish in this window: n=136 from 136 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	136	Too small to publish in this window: n=136 from 136 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 45.9% of games in this spot, vs 53.5% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.3 pp vs expectation for team strength).

In the spot: 45.9%
Baseline: 53.5%
Sample: 603 team-games
Adjusted: +4.3 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 603 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 6 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	45.9%	53.5%	−7.6 pp	603	Teams won 45.9% of games in this spot, vs 53.5% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.3 pp vs expectation for team strength).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	56.8%	64.6%	−7.8 pp	629	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 56.8% of games, vs 64.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−5.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	43.4%	51.8%	−8.4 pp	629	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 43.4% of games, vs 51.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	15.0%	17.0%	−2.0 pp	3,074	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.0% of games, vs 17.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	215.2	227.0	−11.8	629	QBs averaged 215.2 pass yds, vs 227.0. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−7.2 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.2	1.2	−2.3	603	Average margin −1.2 vs +1.2 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 vs expectation for team strength).

Myth checked 14 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	27.5%	30.6%	−3.1 pp	844	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.5% of games, vs 30.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	37.3%	39.1%	−1.8 pp	844	RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.3% of games, vs 39.1%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	38.3%	43.2%	−4.9 pp	629	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 38.3% of games, vs 43.2%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	32.4%	37.3%	−4.9 pp	629	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 32.4% of games, vs 37.3%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	27.5%	29.2%	−1.6 pp	3,074	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 27.5% of games, vs 29.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	37.0%	38.3%	−1.3 pp	3,074	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.0% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	20.8%	22.3%	−1.6 pp	3,074	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.8% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	47.4%	48.4%	−1.0 pp	844	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 47.4% of games, vs 48.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.6%	12.4%	+0.1 pp	844	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.6% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	54.7	55.5	−0.8	844	RBs averaged 54.7 rush yds, vs 55.5. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	36.9	38.1	−1.2	3,074	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.9 rec yds, vs 38.1. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	21.8	23.0	−1.2	603	Teams scored 21.8 points a game, vs 23.0. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	23.0	21.8	+1.2	603	Teams allowed 23.0 points a game, vs 21.8. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	44.9	44.9	+0.0	603	Teams averaged 44.9 game total, vs 44.9. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 58.0% of games, vs 66.4%. Adjusted: −5.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 58.0%
Baseline: 66.4%
Sample: 835 player-games
Adjusted: −5.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 835 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 200+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	58.0%	66.4%	−8.4 pp	835	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 58.0% of games, vs 66.4%. Adjusted: −5.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 6 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	44.3%	55.3%	−11.0 pp	797	Teams won 44.3% of games in this spot, vs 55.3% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.5 pp vs expectation for team strength).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	44.7%	53.4%	−8.8 pp	835	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 44.7% of games, vs 53.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	38.8%	46.1%	−7.3 pp	835	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 38.8% of games, vs 46.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	15.6%	17.4%	−1.9 pp	4,055	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.6% of games, vs 17.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	217.8	231.1	−13.4	835	QBs averaged 217.8 pass yds, vs 231.1. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−5.8 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.9	1.9	−3.8	797	Average margin −1.9 vs +1.9 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 vs expectation for team strength).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	21.8	23.7	−1.9	797	Teams scored 21.8 points a game, vs 23.7. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	23.8	21.8	+1.9	797	Teams allowed 23.8 points a game, vs 21.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 11 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	27.1%	30.6%	−3.4 pp	1,106	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.1% of games, vs 30.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	37.7%	40.4%	−2.7 pp	1,106	RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.7% of games, vs 40.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	34.1%	39.1%	−4.9 pp	835	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 34.1% of games, vs 39.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.1%	12.1%	+0.1 pp	1,106	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.1% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	47.7%	48.8%	−1.1 pp	1,106	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 47.7% of games, vs 48.8%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.4%	30.0%	−1.6 pp	4,055	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.4% of games, vs 30.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	38.2%	39.0%	−0.8 pp	4,055	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.2% of games, vs 39.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.2%	22.9%	−1.8 pp	4,055	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.2% of games, vs 22.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	54.5	55.9	−1.4	1,106	RBs averaged 54.5 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.5	38.8	−1.4	4,055	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.5 rec yds, vs 38.8. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	45.6	45.6	+0.0	797	Teams averaged 45.6 game total, vs 45.6. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 58.0% of games, vs 66.4%. Adjusted: −5.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 58.0%
Baseline: 66.4%
Sample: 835 player-games
Adjusted: −5.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 835 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 200+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	58.0%	66.4%	−8.4 pp	835	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 58.0% of games, vs 66.4%. Adjusted: −5.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 6 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	44.3%	55.3%	−11.0 pp	797	Teams won 44.3% of games in this spot, vs 55.3% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.5 pp vs expectation for team strength).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	44.7%	53.4%	−8.8 pp	835	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 44.7% of games, vs 53.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	38.8%	46.1%	−7.3 pp	835	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 38.8% of games, vs 46.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	15.6%	17.4%	−1.9 pp	4,055	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.6% of games, vs 17.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	217.8	231.1	−13.4	835	QBs averaged 217.8 pass yds, vs 231.1. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−5.8 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.9	1.9	−3.8	797	Average margin −1.9 vs +1.9 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 vs expectation for team strength).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	21.8	23.7	−1.9	797	Teams scored 21.8 points a game, vs 23.7. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	23.8	21.8	+1.9	797	Teams allowed 23.8 points a game, vs 21.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 11 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	27.1%	30.6%	−3.4 pp	1,106	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.1% of games, vs 30.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	37.7%	40.4%	−2.7 pp	1,106	RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.7% of games, vs 40.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	34.1%	39.1%	−4.9 pp	835	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 34.1% of games, vs 39.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.1%	12.1%	+0.1 pp	1,106	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.1% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	47.7%	48.8%	−1.1 pp	1,106	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 47.7% of games, vs 48.8%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.4%	30.0%	−1.6 pp	4,055	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.4% of games, vs 30.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	38.2%	39.0%	−0.8 pp	4,055	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.2% of games, vs 39.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.2%	22.9%	−1.8 pp	4,055	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.2% of games, vs 22.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	54.5	55.9	−1.4	1,106	RBs averaged 54.5 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.5	38.8	−1.4	4,055	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.5 rec yds, vs 38.8. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	45.6	45.6	+0.0	797	Teams averaged 45.6 game total, vs 45.6. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Lost the most recent previous meeting with this opponent (within 400 days, any stored season)
Baseline: Team-games where the team won the last meeting
All-time seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.