NFL · All time: Explained by quality

On a 3+ game losing streak

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 36.4% of games in this spot, vs 52.3% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.5 pp vs expectation for team strength).

In the spot: 36.4%
Baseline: 52.3%
Sample: 462 team-games
Adjusted: +3.5 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 462 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 15 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	36.4%	52.3%	−16.0 pp	462	Teams won 36.4% of games in this spot, vs 52.3% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.5 pp vs expectation for team strength).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	36.0%	41.0%	−5.0 pp	655	RBs reached 1+ TD in 36.0% of games, vs 41.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	25.9%	30.5%	−4.5 pp	2,307	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 25.9% of games, vs 30.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	17.6%	23.3%	−5.6 pp	2,307	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 17.6% of games, vs 23.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	32.7%	45.6%	−12.9 pp	493	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 32.7% of games, vs 45.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.9%	39.7%	−3.9 pp	2,307	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.9% of games, vs 39.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	26.4%	40.3%	−14.0 pp	493	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 26.4% of games, vs 40.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	45.2%	51.0%	−5.8 pp	655	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 45.2% of games, vs 51.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	14.0%	17.1%	−3.1 pp	2,307	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.0% of games, vs 17.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	51.7%	65.2%	−13.5 pp	493	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 51.7% of games, vs 65.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	37.9%	52.8%	−14.8 pp	493	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 37.9% of games, vs 52.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	201.1	229.9	−28.8	493	QBs averaged 201.1 pass yds, vs 229.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.0 vs each player’s own norm).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	52.0	56.9	−4.8	655	RBs averaged 52.0 rush yds, vs 56.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-4.4	0.8	−5.2	462	Average margin −4.4 vs +0.8 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 vs expectation for team strength).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	35.5	39.0	−3.5	2,307	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.5 rec yds, vs 39.0. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	19.5	23.6	−4.1	462	Teams scored 19.5 points a game, vs 23.6. Not adjusted for team strength.
game totalSee the games for game total →	43.3	46.4	−3.1	462	Teams averaged 43.3 game total, vs 46.4. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	27.9%	30.0%	−2.0 pp	655	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.9% of games, vs 30.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	11.3%	13.1%	−1.8 pp	655	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.3% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	23.9	22.8	+1.0	462	Teams allowed 23.9 points a game, vs 22.8. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Too small

Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Sample in this window: 29 team-games
Floor to publish: 200+ games

See all 29 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Too small 20 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	–	–	–	47	Too small to publish in this window: n=47 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	–	–	–	47	Too small to publish in this window: n=47 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	–	–	–	47	Too small to publish in this window: n=47 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	–	–	–	149	Too small to publish in this window: n=149 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	–	–	–	149	Too small to publish in this window: n=149 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	–	–	–	149	Too small to publish in this window: n=149 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	–	–	–	149	Too small to publish in this window: n=149 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	–	–	–	47	Too small to publish in this window: n=47 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	–	–	–	47	Too small to publish in this window: n=47 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	–	–	–	149	Too small to publish in this window: n=149 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. RBs reached 1+ TD in 25.0% of games, vs 41.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−7.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 25.0%
Baseline: 41.5%
Sample: 132 player-games
Adjusted: −7.7 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 132 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 4 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	25.0%	41.5%	−16.5 pp	132	RBs reached 1+ TD in 25.0% of games, vs 41.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−7.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	17.6%	22.5%	−4.9 pp	420	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 17.6% of games, vs 22.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	32.5	36.7	−4.1	420	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 32.5 rec yds, vs 36.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.3 vs each player’s own norm).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	50.6	57.8	−7.2	132	RBs averaged 50.6 rush yds, vs 57.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 6 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	26.5%	31.4%	−4.9 pp	132	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 26.5% of games, vs 31.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	31.2%	36.4%	−5.2 pp	420	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 31.2% of games, vs 36.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	47.0%	51.6%	−4.6 pp	132	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 47.0% of games, vs 51.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	22.4%	26.6%	−4.2 pp	420	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 22.4% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	7.6%	13.8%	−6.2 pp	132	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 7.6% of games, vs 13.8%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	11.9%	15.3%	−3.4 pp	420	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 11.9% of games, vs 15.3%. Not a clear difference.

Too small 10 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	84	Too small to publish in this window: n=84 from 75 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	89	Too small to publish in this window: n=89 from 75 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	89	Too small to publish in this window: n=89 from 75 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	89	Too small to publish in this window: n=89 from 75 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	89	Too small to publish in this window: n=89 from 75 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	89	Too small to publish in this window: n=89 from 75 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	84	Too small to publish in this window: n=84 from 75 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	84	Too small to publish in this window: n=84 from 75 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	84	Too small to publish in this window: n=84 from 75 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	84	Too small to publish in this window: n=84 from 75 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 35.9% of games in this spot, vs 52.4% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.3 pp vs expectation for team strength).

In the spot: 35.9%
Baseline: 52.4%
Sample: 323 team-games
Adjusted: +3.3 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 323 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 16 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	35.9%	52.4%	−16.5 pp	323	Teams won 35.9% of games in this spot, vs 52.4% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.3 pp vs expectation for team strength).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	22.5%	39.5%	−17.0 pp	347	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 22.5% of games, vs 39.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	33.7%	51.8%	−18.1 pp	347	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 33.7% of games, vs 51.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	48.1%	64.5%	−16.4 pp	347	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 48.1% of games, vs 64.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	25.5%	29.8%	−4.4 pp	1,602	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 25.5% of games, vs 29.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	34.4%	40.9%	−6.6 pp	477	RBs reached 1+ TD in 34.4% of games, vs 40.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	34.9%	39.1%	−4.2 pp	1,602	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 34.9% of games, vs 39.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	17.4%	22.7%	−5.3 pp	1,602	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 17.4% of games, vs 22.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	13.4%	16.9%	−3.5 pp	1,602	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.4% of games, vs 16.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	9.4%	13.7%	−4.3 pp	477	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 9.4% of games, vs 13.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	45.1%	51.2%	−6.1 pp	477	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 45.1% of games, vs 51.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	29.7%	44.0%	−14.3 pp	347	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 29.7% of games, vs 44.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	194.3	227.6	−33.2	347	QBs averaged 194.3 pass yds, vs 227.6. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−6.0 vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	34.6	38.4	−3.8	1,602	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 34.6 rec yds, vs 38.4. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.1 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-4.3	0.8	−5.1	323	Average margin −4.3 vs +0.8 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 vs expectation for team strength).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	50.9	57.2	−6.3	477	RBs averaged 50.9 rush yds, vs 57.2. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	19.1	23.3	−4.2	323	Teams scored 19.1 points a game, vs 23.3. Not adjusted for team strength.
game totalSee the games for game total →	42.4	45.8	−3.4	323	Teams averaged 42.4 game total, vs 45.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 2 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	27.5%	30.9%	−3.4 pp	477	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.5% of games, vs 30.9%. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	23.4	22.5	+0.9	323	Teams allowed 23.4 points a game, vs 22.5. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 36.4%
Baseline: 52.3%
Sample: 462 team-games
Adjusted: +3.5 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 462 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 15 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	36.4%	52.3%	−16.0 pp	462	Teams won 36.4% of games in this spot, vs 52.3% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.5 pp vs expectation for team strength).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	36.0%	41.0%	−5.0 pp	655	RBs reached 1+ TD in 36.0% of games, vs 41.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	25.9%	30.5%	−4.5 pp	2,307	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 25.9% of games, vs 30.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	17.6%	23.3%	−5.6 pp	2,307	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 17.6% of games, vs 23.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	32.7%	45.6%	−12.9 pp	493	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 32.7% of games, vs 45.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.9%	39.7%	−3.9 pp	2,307	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.9% of games, vs 39.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	26.4%	40.3%	−14.0 pp	493	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 26.4% of games, vs 40.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	45.2%	51.0%	−5.8 pp	655	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 45.2% of games, vs 51.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	14.0%	17.1%	−3.1 pp	2,307	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.0% of games, vs 17.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	51.7%	65.2%	−13.5 pp	493	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 51.7% of games, vs 65.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	37.9%	52.8%	−14.8 pp	493	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 37.9% of games, vs 52.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	201.1	229.9	−28.8	493	QBs averaged 201.1 pass yds, vs 229.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.0 vs each player’s own norm).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	52.0	56.9	−4.8	655	RBs averaged 52.0 rush yds, vs 56.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-4.4	0.8	−5.2	462	Average margin −4.4 vs +0.8 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 vs expectation for team strength).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	35.5	39.0	−3.5	2,307	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.5 rec yds, vs 39.0. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	19.5	23.6	−4.1	462	Teams scored 19.5 points a game, vs 23.6. Not adjusted for team strength.
game totalSee the games for game total →	43.3	46.4	−3.1	462	Teams averaged 43.3 game total, vs 46.4. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	27.9%	30.0%	−2.0 pp	655	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.9% of games, vs 30.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	11.3%	13.1%	−1.8 pp	655	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.3% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	23.9	22.8	+1.0	462	Teams allowed 23.9 points a game, vs 22.8. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 36.4%
Baseline: 52.3%
Sample: 462 team-games
Adjusted: +3.5 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 462 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 15 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	36.4%	52.3%	−16.0 pp	462	Teams won 36.4% of games in this spot, vs 52.3% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.5 pp vs expectation for team strength).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	36.0%	41.0%	−5.0 pp	655	RBs reached 1+ TD in 36.0% of games, vs 41.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	25.9%	30.5%	−4.5 pp	2,307	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 25.9% of games, vs 30.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	17.6%	23.3%	−5.6 pp	2,307	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 17.6% of games, vs 23.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	32.7%	45.6%	−12.9 pp	493	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 32.7% of games, vs 45.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.9%	39.7%	−3.9 pp	2,307	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.9% of games, vs 39.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	26.4%	40.3%	−14.0 pp	493	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 26.4% of games, vs 40.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	45.2%	51.0%	−5.8 pp	655	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 45.2% of games, vs 51.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	14.0%	17.1%	−3.1 pp	2,307	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.0% of games, vs 17.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	51.7%	65.2%	−13.5 pp	493	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 51.7% of games, vs 65.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	37.9%	52.8%	−14.8 pp	493	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 37.9% of games, vs 52.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	201.1	229.9	−28.8	493	QBs averaged 201.1 pass yds, vs 229.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.0 vs each player’s own norm).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	52.0	56.9	−4.8	655	RBs averaged 52.0 rush yds, vs 56.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-4.4	0.8	−5.2	462	Average margin −4.4 vs +0.8 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 vs expectation for team strength).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	35.5	39.0	−3.5	2,307	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.5 rec yds, vs 39.0. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	19.5	23.6	−4.1	462	Teams scored 19.5 points a game, vs 23.6. Not adjusted for team strength.
game totalSee the games for game total →	43.3	46.4	−3.1	462	Teams averaged 43.3 game total, vs 46.4. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	27.9%	30.0%	−2.0 pp	655	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.9% of games, vs 30.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	11.3%	13.1%	−1.8 pp	655	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.3% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	23.9	22.8	+1.0	462	Teams allowed 23.9 points a game, vs 22.8. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Lost each of the last 3+ games this season (ties break streaks)
Baseline: Other team-games with 3+ prior games this season
All-time seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.