NFL · All time: Edge

Late-and-close (4th qtr/OT, within 8)

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Completion rate (pass plays): 57.5% vs 60.5%.

In the spot: 57.5%
Baseline: 60.5%
Sample: 7,120 plays
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 7,120 plays behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Completion rate (pass plays): the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Completion rate (pass plays)See the games for Completion rate (pass plays) →	57.5%	60.5%	−3.0 pp	7,120	Completion rate (pass plays): 57.5% vs 60.5%.

Myth checked 2 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Success rate (run plays)See the games for Success rate (run plays) →	41.3%	42.9%	−1.6 pp	5,131	Success rate (run plays): 41.3% vs 42.9%. Not a clear difference.
Success rate (pass plays)See the games for Success rate (pass plays) →	44.1%	44.7%	−0.6 pp	7,120	Success rate (pass plays): 44.1% vs 44.7%. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Completion rate (pass plays): 58.7% vs 59.9%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 58.7%
Baseline: 59.9%
Sample: 1,486 plays
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 1,486 plays behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 3 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Completion rate (pass plays)See the games for Completion rate (pass plays) →	58.7%	59.9%	−1.2 pp	1,486	Completion rate (pass plays): 58.7% vs 59.9%. Not a clear difference.
Success rate (pass plays)See the games for Success rate (pass plays) →	45.4%	44.3%	+1.2 pp	1,486	Success rate (pass plays): 45.4% vs 44.3%. Not a clear difference.
Success rate (run plays)See the games for Success rate (run plays) →	42.3%	41.7%	+0.6 pp	1,041	Success rate (run plays): 42.3% vs 41.7%. Not a clear difference.

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Completion rate (pass plays): 56.0% vs 60.1%.

In the spot: 56.0%
Baseline: 60.1%
Sample: 2,895 plays
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 2,895 plays behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Completion rate (pass plays): the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Completion rate (pass plays)See the games for Completion rate (pass plays) →	56.0%	60.1%	−4.1 pp	2,895	Completion rate (pass plays): 56.0% vs 60.1%.

Myth checked 2 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Success rate (run plays)See the games for Success rate (run plays) →	41.3%	43.4%	−2.1 pp	2,038	Success rate (run plays): 41.3% vs 43.4%. Not a clear difference.
Success rate (pass plays)See the games for Success rate (pass plays) →	43.1%	44.8%	−1.7 pp	2,895	Success rate (pass plays): 43.1% vs 44.8%. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Completion rate (pass plays): 57.5% vs 60.5%.

In the spot: 57.5%
Baseline: 60.5%
Sample: 7,120 plays
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 7,120 plays behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Completion rate (pass plays): the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Completion rate (pass plays)See the games for Completion rate (pass plays) →	57.5%	60.5%	−3.0 pp	7,120	Completion rate (pass plays): 57.5% vs 60.5%.

Myth checked 2 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Success rate (run plays)See the games for Success rate (run plays) →	41.3%	42.9%	−1.6 pp	5,131	Success rate (run plays): 41.3% vs 42.9%. Not a clear difference.
Success rate (pass plays)See the games for Success rate (pass plays) →	44.1%	44.7%	−0.6 pp	7,120	Success rate (pass plays): 44.1% vs 44.7%. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Completion rate (pass plays): 57.5% vs 60.5%.

In the spot: 57.5%
Baseline: 60.5%
Sample: 7,120 plays
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 7,120 plays behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Completion rate (pass plays): the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Completion rate (pass plays)See the games for Completion rate (pass plays) →	57.5%	60.5%	−3.0 pp	7,120	Completion rate (pass plays): 57.5% vs 60.5%.

Myth checked 2 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Success rate (run plays)See the games for Success rate (run plays) →	41.3%	42.9%	−1.6 pp	5,131	Success rate (run plays): 41.3% vs 42.9%. Not a clear difference.
Success rate (pass plays)See the games for Success rate (pass plays) →	44.1%	44.7%	−0.6 pp	7,120	Success rate (pass plays): 44.1% vs 44.7%. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Completion rate (pass plays): 57.5% vs 60.5%.

In the spot: 57.5%
Baseline: 60.5%
Sample: 7,120 plays
Adjusted: not needed at game level

See all 7,120 plays behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Completion rate (pass plays): the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Completion rate (pass plays)See the games for Completion rate (pass plays) →	57.5%	60.5%	−3.0 pp	7,120	Completion rate (pass plays): 57.5% vs 60.5%.

Myth checked 2 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Success rate (run plays)See the games for Success rate (run plays) →	41.3%	42.9%	−1.6 pp	5,131	Success rate (run plays): 41.3% vs 42.9%. Not a clear difference.
Success rate (pass plays)See the games for Success rate (pass plays) →	44.1%	44.7%	−0.6 pp	7,120	Success rate (pass plays): 44.1% vs 44.7%. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: nflverse play-by-play 2024-26 pass/run plays with 4th quarter or overtime, within 8 points (offense view)
Baseline: All other pass/run plays
All-time seasons: 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.