NFL · All time: Edge
Heat (85F+)
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 32.9% of games, vs 37.3%. Adjusted: −4.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 32.9%
- Baseline
- 37.3%
- Sample
- 493 player-games
- Adjusted
- −4.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 493 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 32.9% | 37.3% | −4.4 pp | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 32.9% of games, vs 37.3%. Adjusted: −4.6 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 38.6% | 46.6% | −8.0 pp | 101 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 38.6% of games, vs 46.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 29.7% | 34.3% | −4.6 pp | 101 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 29.7% of games, vs 34.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 56.4% | 60.2% | −3.8 pp | 101 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 56.4% of games, vs 60.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 36.6% | 39.9% | −3.3 pp | 101 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 36.6% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 10.5% | 12.9% | −2.4 pp | 143 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 10.5% of games, vs 12.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 34.3% | 38.4% | −4.1 pp | 143 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 34.3% of games, vs 38.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 42.7% | 48.6% | −6.0 pp | 143 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 42.7% of games, vs 48.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 13.0% | 15.4% | −2.4 pp | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.0% of games, vs 15.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 28.7% | 29.2% | −0.6 pp | 143 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.7% of games, vs 29.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 26.8% | 28.1% | −1.3 pp | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.8% of games, vs 28.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 20.7% | 21.1% | −0.4 pp | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.7% of games, vs 21.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 211.1 | 218.9 | −7.8 | 101 | QBs averaged 211.1 pass yds, vs 218.9. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 52.5 | 55.4 | −2.9 | 143 | RBs averaged 52.5 rush yds, vs 55.4. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 34.5 | 36.7 | −2.1 | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 34.5 rec yds, vs 36.7. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=22 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 22 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 22 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 22 | Too small to publish in this window: n=22 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 22 | Too small to publish in this window: n=22 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 31 | Too small to publish in this window: n=31 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 31 | Too small to publish in this window: n=31 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 31 | Too small to publish in this window: n=31 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 22 | Too small to publish in this window: n=22 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 116 | Too small to publish in this window: n=116 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 116 | Too small to publish in this window: n=116 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 22 | Too small to publish in this window: n=22 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 116 | Too small to publish in this window: n=116 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 31 | Too small to publish in this window: n=31 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 116 | Too small to publish in this window: n=116 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 22 | Too small to publish in this window: n=22 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 31 | Too small to publish in this window: n=31 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 116 | Too small to publish in this window: n=116 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=24 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 24 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 24 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 24 | Too small to publish in this window: n=24 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 24 | Too small to publish in this window: n=24 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 33 | Too small to publish in this window: n=33 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 33 | Too small to publish in this window: n=33 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 107 | Too small to publish in this window: n=107 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 33 | Too small to publish in this window: n=33 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | – | – | – | 33 | Too small to publish in this window: n=33 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 107 | Too small to publish in this window: n=107 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 107 | Too small to publish in this window: n=107 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 24 | Too small to publish in this window: n=24 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 107 | Too small to publish in this window: n=107 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 24 | Too small to publish in this window: n=24 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 24 | Too small to publish in this window: n=24 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | – | – | – | 33 | Too small to publish in this window: n=33 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 107 | Too small to publish in this window: n=107 from 11 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 32.9% of games, vs 37.4%. Adjusted: −5.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 32.9%
- Baseline
- 37.4%
- Sample
- 493 player-games
- Adjusted
- −5.0 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 493 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 32.9% | 37.4% | −4.6 pp | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 32.9% of games, vs 37.4%. Adjusted: −5.0 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 38.6% | 46.7% | −8.1 pp | 101 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 38.6% of games, vs 46.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 29.7% | 34.7% | −5.0 pp | 101 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 29.7% of games, vs 34.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 56.4% | 60.2% | −3.8 pp | 101 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 56.4% of games, vs 60.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 36.6% | 40.0% | −3.3 pp | 101 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 36.6% of games, vs 40.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 10.5% | 12.9% | −2.4 pp | 143 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 10.5% of games, vs 12.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 34.3% | 38.7% | −4.4 pp | 143 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 34.3% of games, vs 38.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 42.7% | 48.5% | −5.9 pp | 143 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 42.7% of games, vs 48.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 13.0% | 15.4% | −2.4 pp | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.0% of games, vs 15.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 26.8% | 28.0% | −1.3 pp | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.8% of games, vs 28.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 28.7% | 29.4% | −0.8 pp | 143 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.7% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 20.7% | 21.1% | −0.5 pp | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.7% of games, vs 21.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 211.1 | 219.0 | −7.9 | 101 | QBs averaged 211.1 pass yds, vs 219.0. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 34.5 | 36.7 | −2.1 | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 34.5 rec yds, vs 36.7. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 52.5 | 55.3 | −2.9 | 143 | RBs averaged 52.5 rush yds, vs 55.3. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 32.9% of games, vs 37.3%. Adjusted: −4.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 32.9%
- Baseline
- 37.3%
- Sample
- 493 player-games
- Adjusted
- −4.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 493 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 32.9% | 37.3% | −4.4 pp | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 32.9% of games, vs 37.3%. Adjusted: −4.6 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 38.6% | 46.6% | −8.0 pp | 101 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 38.6% of games, vs 46.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 29.7% | 34.3% | −4.6 pp | 101 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 29.7% of games, vs 34.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 56.4% | 60.2% | −3.8 pp | 101 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 56.4% of games, vs 60.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 36.6% | 39.9% | −3.3 pp | 101 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 36.6% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 10.5% | 12.9% | −2.4 pp | 143 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 10.5% of games, vs 12.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 34.3% | 38.4% | −4.1 pp | 143 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 34.3% of games, vs 38.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 42.7% | 48.6% | −6.0 pp | 143 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 42.7% of games, vs 48.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 13.0% | 15.4% | −2.4 pp | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.0% of games, vs 15.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 28.7% | 29.2% | −0.6 pp | 143 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.7% of games, vs 29.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 26.8% | 28.1% | −1.3 pp | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.8% of games, vs 28.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 20.7% | 21.1% | −0.4 pp | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.7% of games, vs 21.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 211.1 | 218.9 | −7.8 | 101 | QBs averaged 211.1 pass yds, vs 218.9. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 52.5 | 55.4 | −2.9 | 143 | RBs averaged 52.5 rush yds, vs 55.4. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 34.5 | 36.7 | −2.1 | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 34.5 rec yds, vs 36.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 32.9% of games, vs 37.3%. Adjusted: −4.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 32.9%
- Baseline
- 37.3%
- Sample
- 493 player-games
- Adjusted
- −4.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 493 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 32.9% | 37.3% | −4.4 pp | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 32.9% of games, vs 37.3%. Adjusted: −4.6 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 38.6% | 46.6% | −8.0 pp | 101 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 38.6% of games, vs 46.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 29.7% | 34.3% | −4.6 pp | 101 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 29.7% of games, vs 34.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 56.4% | 60.2% | −3.8 pp | 101 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 56.4% of games, vs 60.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 36.6% | 39.9% | −3.3 pp | 101 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 36.6% of games, vs 39.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 10.5% | 12.9% | −2.4 pp | 143 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 10.5% of games, vs 12.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 34.3% | 38.4% | −4.1 pp | 143 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 34.3% of games, vs 38.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 42.7% | 48.6% | −6.0 pp | 143 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 42.7% of games, vs 48.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 13.0% | 15.4% | −2.4 pp | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.0% of games, vs 15.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 28.7% | 29.2% | −0.6 pp | 143 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.7% of games, vs 29.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 26.8% | 28.1% | −1.3 pp | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.8% of games, vs 28.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 20.7% | 21.1% | −0.4 pp | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.7% of games, vs 21.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 211.1 | 218.9 | −7.8 | 101 | QBs averaged 211.1 pass yds, vs 218.9. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 52.5 | 55.4 | −2.9 | 143 | RBs averaged 52.5 rush yds, vs 55.4. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 34.5 | 36.7 | −2.1 | 493 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 34.5 rec yds, vs 36.7. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. On this weather spot each game shows that day’s temperature, wind, rain, snow and roof from the validated game-weather record. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(54 KB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Kickoff-window temperature 85F or higher. Weather and roof from a validated kickoff-weather record; outdoor games only
- Baseline
- Outdoor games below 85F
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.