NFL · All time: Edge
Dome / closed roof
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Games averaged 47.2 combined points, vs 44.1. A scoring average, not an over/under record.
- In the spot
- 47.2
- Baseline
- 44.1
- Sample
- 445 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 445 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 3 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 47.2 | 44.1 | +3.1 | 445 | Games averaged 47.2 combined points, vs 44.1. A scoring average, not an over/under record. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 41.3% | 37.0% | +4.3 pp | 4,416 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 41.3% of games, vs 37.0%. Adjusted: +2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 40.4 | 36.6 | +3.8 | 4,416 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.4 rec yds, vs 36.6. Adjusted: +1.9 vs each player’s own norm. |
Explained by quality 8 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 40.2% | 34.0% | +6.1 pp | 924 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 40.2% of games, vs 34.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 45.1% | 39.8% | +5.4 pp | 924 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 45.1% of games, vs 39.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 53.8% | 46.2% | +7.6 pp | 924 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 53.8% of games, vs 46.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.3% | 21.1% | +2.2 pp | 4,416 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.3% of games, vs 21.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 18.1% | 15.2% | +2.9 pp | 4,416 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 18.1% of games, vs 15.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 66.6% | 60.0% | +6.5 pp | 924 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 66.6% of games, vs 60.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 31.3% | 28.0% | +3.3 pp | 4,416 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 31.3% of games, vs 28.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 231.5 | 218.5 | +13.0 | 924 | QBs averaged 231.5 pass yds, vs 218.5. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.4 vs each player’s own norm). |
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 50.3% | 56.6% | −6.3 pp | 445 | Home teams won 50.3%, vs 56.6%. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 6 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 41.8% | 38.2% | +3.6 pp | 1,255 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 41.8% of games, vs 38.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 51.3% | 48.3% | +3.0 pp | 1,255 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 51.3% of games, vs 48.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.3% | 12.8% | −0.5 pp | 1,255 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.3% of games, vs 12.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 30.2% | 29.2% | +1.0 pp | 1,255 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.2% of games, vs 29.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 6.5% | 5.9% | +0.6 pp | 445 | 6.5% of games went to overtime, vs 5.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 56.6 | 55.2 | +1.4 | 1,255 | RBs averaged 56.6 rush yds, vs 55.2. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.5% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 13.5%
- Baseline
- 12.4%
- Sample
- 111 player-games
- Adjusted
- +8.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 111 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 13.5% | 12.4% | +1.1 pp | 111 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.5% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 27.0% | 30.3% | −3.3 pp | 111 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.0% of games, vs 30.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.9% | 28.4% | +1.4 pp | 365 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.9% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 48.6% | 50.0% | −1.4 pp | 111 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.6% of games, vs 50.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 39.6% | 42.7% | −3.1 pp | 111 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 39.6% of games, vs 42.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 37.8% | 37.4% | +0.4 pp | 365 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.8% of games, vs 37.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 16.7% | 15.7% | +1.0 pp | 365 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.7% of games, vs 15.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.6% | 22.5% | −0.9 pp | 365 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.6% of games, vs 22.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 56.5 | 55.9 | +0.6 | 111 | RBs averaged 56.5 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 38.5 | 36.6 | +2.0 | 365 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.5 rec yds, vs 36.6. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 8 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | – | – | – | 36 | Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 36 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | – | – | – | 36 | Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 36 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 75 | Too small to publish in this window: n=75 from 36 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | – | – | – | 75 | Too small to publish in this window: n=75 from 36 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | – | – | – | 36 | Too small to publish in this window: n=36 from 36 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 75 | Too small to publish in this window: n=75 from 36 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | – | – | – | 75 | Too small to publish in this window: n=75 from 36 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | – | – | – | 75 | Too small to publish in this window: n=75 from 36 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 31.4% of games, vs 23.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 31.4%
- Baseline
- 23.9%
- Sample
- 883 player-games
- Adjusted
- +3.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 883 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 4 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 31.4% | 23.9% | +7.5 pp | 883 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 31.4% of games, vs 23.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 39.4% | 33.9% | +5.5 pp | 883 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 39.4% of games, vs 33.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 17.6% | 12.9% | +4.6 pp | 883 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.6% of games, vs 12.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 39.8 | 34.2 | +5.6 | 883 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 39.8 rec yds, vs 34.2. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.4 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 11 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 8.7% | 13.4% | −4.7 pp | 265 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 8.7% of games, vs 13.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.1% | 21.2% | +2.0 pp | 883 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.1% of games, vs 21.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 63.6% | 56.5% | +7.2 pp | 187 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 63.6% of games, vs 56.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 39.0% | 33.9% | +5.1 pp | 187 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 39.0% of games, vs 33.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 50.8% | 44.3% | +6.5 pp | 187 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 50.8% of games, vs 44.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 48.3% | 49.9% | −1.6 pp | 265 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.3% of games, vs 49.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 28.7% | 29.5% | −0.9 pp | 265 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.7% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 46.5% | 42.2% | +4.3 pp | 187 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 46.5% of games, vs 42.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 40.0% | 39.1% | +0.9 pp | 265 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.0% of games, vs 39.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 225.8 | 211.9 | +13.9 | 187 | QBs averaged 225.8 pass yds, vs 211.9. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 53.8 | 56.2 | −2.4 | 265 | RBs averaged 53.8 rush yds, vs 56.2. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 3 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | – | – | – | 90 | Too small to publish in this window: n=90 from 90 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | – | – | – | 90 | Too small to publish in this window: n=90 from 90 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | – | – | – | 90 | Too small to publish in this window: n=90 from 90 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Games averaged 47.2 combined points, vs 44.1. A scoring average, not an over/under record.
- In the spot
- 47.2
- Baseline
- 44.1
- Sample
- 396 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 396 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 47.2 | 44.1 | +3.0 | 396 | Games averaged 47.2 combined points, vs 44.1. A scoring average, not an over/under record. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 40.4 | 36.6 | +3.8 | 3,924 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.4 rec yds, vs 36.6. Adjusted: +1.9 vs each player’s own norm. |
Explained by quality 10 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 40.0% | 34.5% | +5.5 pp | 823 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 40.0% of games, vs 34.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 44.6% | 39.8% | +4.8 pp | 823 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 44.6% of games, vs 39.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 66.7% | 60.0% | +6.7 pp | 823 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 66.7% of games, vs 60.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 53.3% | 46.2% | +7.1 pp | 823 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 53.3% of games, vs 46.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 41.0% | 37.2% | +3.8 pp | 3,924 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 41.0% of games, vs 37.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 51.9% | 48.2% | +3.7 pp | 1,115 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 51.9% of games, vs 48.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.0% | 21.1% | +1.9 pp | 3,924 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.0% of games, vs 21.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 18.2% | 15.3% | +2.9 pp | 3,924 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 18.2% of games, vs 15.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 31.3% | 28.0% | +3.4 pp | 3,924 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 31.3% of games, vs 28.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 231.2 | 218.6 | +12.7 | 823 | QBs averaged 231.2 pass yds, vs 218.6. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.6 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 6 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 42.2% | 38.4% | +3.8 pp | 1,115 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 42.2% of games, vs 38.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 51.3% | 56.4% | −5.1 pp | 396 | Home teams won 51.3%, vs 56.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.4% | 12.7% | −0.4 pp | 1,115 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.4% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 6.3% | 5.8% | +0.5 pp | 396 | 6.3% of games went to overtime, vs 5.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 30.9% | 29.4% | +1.5 pp | 1,115 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.9% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 57.0 | 55.2 | +1.8 | 1,115 | RBs averaged 57.0 rush yds, vs 55.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Games averaged 47.2 combined points, vs 44.1. A scoring average, not an over/under record.
- In the spot
- 47.2
- Baseline
- 44.1
- Sample
- 445 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 445 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 3 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 47.2 | 44.1 | +3.1 | 445 | Games averaged 47.2 combined points, vs 44.1. A scoring average, not an over/under record. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 41.3% | 37.0% | +4.3 pp | 4,416 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 41.3% of games, vs 37.0%. Adjusted: +2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 40.4 | 36.6 | +3.8 | 4,416 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.4 rec yds, vs 36.6. Adjusted: +1.9 vs each player’s own norm. |
Explained by quality 8 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 40.2% | 34.0% | +6.1 pp | 924 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 40.2% of games, vs 34.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 45.1% | 39.8% | +5.4 pp | 924 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 45.1% of games, vs 39.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 53.8% | 46.2% | +7.6 pp | 924 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 53.8% of games, vs 46.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.3% | 21.1% | +2.2 pp | 4,416 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.3% of games, vs 21.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 18.1% | 15.2% | +2.9 pp | 4,416 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 18.1% of games, vs 15.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 66.6% | 60.0% | +6.5 pp | 924 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 66.6% of games, vs 60.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 31.3% | 28.0% | +3.3 pp | 4,416 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 31.3% of games, vs 28.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 231.5 | 218.5 | +13.0 | 924 | QBs averaged 231.5 pass yds, vs 218.5. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.4 vs each player’s own norm). |
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 50.3% | 56.6% | −6.3 pp | 445 | Home teams won 50.3%, vs 56.6%. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 6 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 41.8% | 38.2% | +3.6 pp | 1,255 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 41.8% of games, vs 38.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 51.3% | 48.3% | +3.0 pp | 1,255 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 51.3% of games, vs 48.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.3% | 12.8% | −0.5 pp | 1,255 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.3% of games, vs 12.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 30.2% | 29.2% | +1.0 pp | 1,255 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.2% of games, vs 29.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 6.5% | 5.9% | +0.6 pp | 445 | 6.5% of games went to overtime, vs 5.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 56.6 | 55.2 | +1.4 | 1,255 | RBs averaged 56.6 rush yds, vs 55.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Games averaged 47.2 combined points, vs 44.1. A scoring average, not an over/under record.
- In the spot
- 47.2
- Baseline
- 44.1
- Sample
- 445 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 445 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 3 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 47.2 | 44.1 | +3.1 | 445 | Games averaged 47.2 combined points, vs 44.1. A scoring average, not an over/under record. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 41.3% | 37.0% | +4.3 pp | 4,416 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 41.3% of games, vs 37.0%. Adjusted: +2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 40.4 | 36.6 | +3.8 | 4,416 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.4 rec yds, vs 36.6. Adjusted: +1.9 vs each player’s own norm. |
Explained by quality 8 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds → | 40.2% | 34.0% | +6.1 pp | 924 | QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 40.2% of games, vs 34.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD → | 45.1% | 39.8% | +5.4 pp | 924 | QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 45.1% of games, vs 39.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds → | 53.8% | 46.2% | +7.6 pp | 924 | QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 53.8% of games, vs 46.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 23.3% | 21.1% | +2.2 pp | 4,416 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 23.3% of games, vs 21.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 18.1% | 15.2% | +2.9 pp | 4,416 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 18.1% of games, vs 15.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds → | 66.6% | 60.0% | +6.5 pp | 924 | QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 66.6% of games, vs 60.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 31.3% | 28.0% | +3.3 pp | 4,416 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 31.3% of games, vs 28.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds → | 231.5 | 218.5 | +13.0 | 924 | QBs averaged 231.5 pass yds, vs 218.5. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.4 vs each player’s own norm). |
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 50.3% | 56.6% | −6.3 pp | 445 | Home teams won 50.3%, vs 56.6%. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 6 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD → | 41.8% | 38.2% | +3.6 pp | 1,255 | RBs reached 1+ TD in 41.8% of games, vs 38.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds → | 51.3% | 48.3% | +3.0 pp | 1,255 | RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 51.3% of games, vs 48.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds → | 12.3% | 12.8% | −0.5 pp | 1,255 | RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.3% of games, vs 12.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds → | 30.2% | 29.2% | +1.0 pp | 1,255 | RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.2% of games, vs 29.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 6.5% | 5.9% | +0.6 pp | 445 | 6.5% of games went to overtime, vs 5.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds → | 56.6 | 55.2 | +1.4 | 1,255 | RBs averaged 56.6 rush yds, vs 55.2. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. On this weather spot each game shows that day’s temperature, wind, rain, snow and roof from the validated game-weather record. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Stadium enclosed (dome or closed roof) or covered with open sides
- Baseline
- Outdoor games (exposure = outdoor)
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.