NFL · All time: Edge

Division game

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 35.3% of games, vs 39.9%. Adjusted: −3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 35.3%
Baseline: 39.9%
Sample: 1,323 player-games
Adjusted: −3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 1,323 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 250+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	35.3%	39.9%	−4.6 pp	1,323	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 35.3% of games, vs 39.9%. Adjusted: −3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	61.1%	65.1%	−4.0 pp	1,323	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 61.1% of games, vs 65.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	221.8	229.1	−7.3	1,323	QBs averaged 221.8 pass yds, vs 229.1. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 15 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	45.4	46.1	−0.7	633	Games averaged 45.4 combined points, vs 46.1. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	48.3%	52.1%	−3.8 pp	1,323	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 48.3% of games, vs 52.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	38.6%	40.6%	−2.1 pp	1,802	RBs reached 1+ TD in 38.6% of games, vs 40.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	48.2%	50.4%	−2.1 pp	1,802	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.2% of games, vs 50.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	38.5%	39.6%	−1.2 pp	6,395	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.5% of games, vs 39.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	29.0%	30.1%	−1.2 pp	6,395	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.0% of games, vs 30.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.2%	29.9%	−1.6 pp	1,802	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.2% of games, vs 29.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	16.1%	16.8%	−0.7 pp	6,395	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.1% of games, vs 16.8%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	54.3%	52.9%	+1.4 pp	633	Home teams won 54.3%, vs 52.9%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	42.9%	43.6%	−0.7 pp	1,323	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 42.9% of games, vs 43.6%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	5.4%	6.4%	−1.1 pp	633	5.4% of games went to overtime, vs 6.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.1%	12.5%	−0.4 pp	1,802	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.1% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	22.3%	22.4%	−0.2 pp	6,395	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.3% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	38.0	38.7	−0.6	6,395	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.0 rec yds, vs 38.7. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.4	55.9	−0.4	1,802	RBs averaged 55.4 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. RBs reached 1+ TD in 36.6% of games, vs 42.8%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 36.6%
Baseline: 42.8%
Sample: 123 player-games
Adjusted: −12.5 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 123 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 10 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	36.6%	42.8%	−6.2 pp	123	RBs reached 1+ TD in 36.6% of games, vs 42.8%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	13.0%	12.1%	+0.9 pp	123	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.0% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	49.6%	48.5%	+1.1 pp	123	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.6% of games, vs 48.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	36.3%	38.3%	−2.0 pp	438	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 36.3% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	13.7%	16.6%	−2.9 pp	438	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.7% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	27.9%	29.6%	−1.8 pp	438	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 27.9% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.9%	22.6%	−0.6 pp	438	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.9% of games, vs 22.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	27.6%	29.2%	−1.5 pp	123	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.6% of games, vs 29.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	34.9	38.4	−3.4	438	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 34.9 rec yds, vs 38.4. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	56.7	54.6	+2.1	123	RBs averaged 56.7 rush yds, vs 54.6. Not a clear difference.

Too small 8 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	–	–	–	42	Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 42 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	86	Too small to publish in this window: n=86 from 42 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	86	Too small to publish in this window: n=86 from 42 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	86	Too small to publish in this window: n=86 from 42 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	–	–	–	42	Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 42 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	86	Too small to publish in this window: n=86 from 42 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	–	–	–	42	Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 42 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	86	Too small to publish in this window: n=86 from 42 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 50.0% of games, vs 63.6%. Adjusted: −12.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 50.0%
Baseline: 63.6%
Sample: 208 player-games
Adjusted: −12.5 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 208 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 200+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	50.0%	63.6%	−13.6 pp	208	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 50.0% of games, vs 63.6%. Adjusted: −12.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Myth checked 14 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	30.8%	38.3%	−7.5 pp	208	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 30.8% of games, vs 38.3%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	38.9%	45.6%	−6.7 pp	208	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 38.9% of games, vs 45.6%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	42.3%	48.5%	−6.2 pp	208	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 42.3% of games, vs 48.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	35.8%	41.0%	−5.2 pp	288	RBs reached 1+ TD in 35.8% of games, vs 41.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	9.7%	13.1%	−3.4 pp	288	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 9.7% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	20.0%	22.7%	−2.7 pp	1,003	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 20.0% of games, vs 22.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	24.7%	27.0%	−2.2 pp	1,003	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 24.7% of games, vs 27.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	27.4%	30.3%	−2.8 pp	288	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 27.4% of games, vs 30.3%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	13.6%	14.9%	−1.3 pp	1,003	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 13.6% of games, vs 14.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	34.5%	36.2%	−1.7 pp	1,003	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 34.5% of games, vs 36.2%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	49.0%	49.8%	−0.9 pp	288	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 49.0% of games, vs 49.8%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	206.3	222.1	−15.8	208	QBs averaged 206.3 pass yds, vs 222.1. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	52.7	57.2	−4.4	288	RBs averaged 52.7 rush yds, vs 57.2. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	35.6	36.2	−0.7	1,003	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.6 rec yds, vs 36.2. Not a clear difference.

Too small 3 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	–	–	–	99	Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 99 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	–	–	–	99	Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 99 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	–	–	–	99	Too small to publish in this window: n=99 from 99 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.1% of games, vs 39.0%. Adjusted: −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 37.1%
Baseline: 39.0%
Sample: 4,376 player-games
Adjusted: −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 4,376 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

WR/TE 40+ rec yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	37.1%	39.0%	−1.9 pp	4,376	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.1% of games, vs 39.0%. Adjusted: −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 3 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	33.1%	37.8%	−4.6 pp	905	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 33.1% of games, vs 37.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	37.0%	40.8%	−3.8 pp	1,252	RBs reached 1+ TD in 37.0% of games, vs 40.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	217.5	225.3	−7.9	905	QBs averaged 217.5 pass yds, vs 225.3. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−5.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 14 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	44.1	45.5	−1.4	435	Games averaged 44.1 combined points, vs 45.5. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	46.2%	49.8%	−3.6 pp	905	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 46.2% of games, vs 49.8%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	47.8%	50.1%	−2.2 pp	1,252	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 47.8% of games, vs 50.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.3%	30.6%	−2.3 pp	1,252	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.3% of games, vs 30.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	27.9%	29.6%	−1.6 pp	4,376	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 27.9% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference.
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	59.7%	63.4%	−3.7 pp	905	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 59.7% of games, vs 63.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	15.6%	16.4%	−0.8 pp	4,376	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.6% of games, vs 16.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.4%	21.9%	−0.5 pp	4,376	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.4% of games, vs 21.9%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	55.6%	54.0%	+1.6 pp	435	Home teams won 55.6%, vs 54.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.6%	12.6%	+0.0 pp	1,252	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.6% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	5.7%	6.3%	−0.6 pp	435	5.7% of games went to overtime, vs 6.3%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	40.3%	41.7%	−1.3 pp	905	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 40.3% of games, vs 41.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.2	38.0	−0.8	4,376	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.2 rec yds, vs 38.0. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.1	56.0	−0.9	1,252	RBs averaged 55.1 rush yds, vs 56.0. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 35.3% of games, vs 39.9%. Adjusted: −3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 35.3%
Baseline: 39.9%
Sample: 1,323 player-games
Adjusted: −3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 1,323 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 250+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	35.3%	39.9%	−4.6 pp	1,323	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 35.3% of games, vs 39.9%. Adjusted: −3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	61.1%	65.1%	−4.0 pp	1,323	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 61.1% of games, vs 65.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	221.8	229.1	−7.3	1,323	QBs averaged 221.8 pass yds, vs 229.1. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 15 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	45.4	46.1	−0.7	633	Games averaged 45.4 combined points, vs 46.1. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	48.3%	52.1%	−3.8 pp	1,323	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 48.3% of games, vs 52.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	38.6%	40.6%	−2.1 pp	1,802	RBs reached 1+ TD in 38.6% of games, vs 40.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	48.2%	50.4%	−2.1 pp	1,802	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.2% of games, vs 50.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	38.5%	39.6%	−1.2 pp	6,395	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.5% of games, vs 39.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	29.0%	30.1%	−1.2 pp	6,395	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.0% of games, vs 30.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.2%	29.9%	−1.6 pp	1,802	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.2% of games, vs 29.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	16.1%	16.8%	−0.7 pp	6,395	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.1% of games, vs 16.8%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	54.3%	52.9%	+1.4 pp	633	Home teams won 54.3%, vs 52.9%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	42.9%	43.6%	−0.7 pp	1,323	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 42.9% of games, vs 43.6%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	5.4%	6.4%	−1.1 pp	633	5.4% of games went to overtime, vs 6.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.1%	12.5%	−0.4 pp	1,802	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.1% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	22.3%	22.4%	−0.2 pp	6,395	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.3% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	38.0	38.7	−0.6	6,395	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.0 rec yds, vs 38.7. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.4	55.9	−0.4	1,802	RBs averaged 55.4 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 35.3% of games, vs 39.9%. Adjusted: −3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 35.3%
Baseline: 39.9%
Sample: 1,323 player-games
Adjusted: −3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 1,323 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 250+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	35.3%	39.9%	−4.6 pp	1,323	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 35.3% of games, vs 39.9%. Adjusted: −3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	61.1%	65.1%	−4.0 pp	1,323	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 61.1% of games, vs 65.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	221.8	229.1	−7.3	1,323	QBs averaged 221.8 pass yds, vs 229.1. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−4.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 15 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points →	45.4	46.1	−0.7	633	Games averaged 45.4 combined points, vs 46.1. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	48.3%	52.1%	−3.8 pp	1,323	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 48.3% of games, vs 52.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	38.6%	40.6%	−2.1 pp	1,802	RBs reached 1+ TD in 38.6% of games, vs 40.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	48.2%	50.4%	−2.1 pp	1,802	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 48.2% of games, vs 50.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	38.5%	39.6%	−1.2 pp	6,395	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.5% of games, vs 39.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	29.0%	30.1%	−1.2 pp	6,395	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.0% of games, vs 30.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	28.2%	29.9%	−1.6 pp	1,802	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 28.2% of games, vs 29.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	16.1%	16.8%	−0.7 pp	6,395	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 16.1% of games, vs 16.8%. Not a clear difference.
Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate →	54.3%	52.9%	+1.4 pp	633	Home teams won 54.3%, vs 52.9%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	42.9%	43.6%	−0.7 pp	1,323	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 42.9% of games, vs 43.6%. Not a clear difference.
Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate →	5.4%	6.4%	−1.1 pp	633	5.4% of games went to overtime, vs 6.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.1%	12.5%	−0.4 pp	1,802	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.1% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	22.3%	22.4%	−0.2 pp	6,395	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 22.3% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	38.0	38.7	−0.6	6,395	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 38.0 rec yds, vs 38.7. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.4	55.9	−0.4	1,802	RBs averaged 55.4 rush yds, vs 55.9. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Division opponents (current alignment)
Baseline: Non-division games
All-time seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.