NFL · All time: Explained by quality

Bounce-back after a bottom-25% game

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 23.6% of games, vs 32.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 23.6%
Baseline: 32.9%
Sample: 921 player-games
Adjusted: −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 921 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 4 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	23.6%	32.9%	−9.3 pp	921	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 23.6% of games, vs 32.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.0%	33.8%	−5.8 pp	3,672	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.0% of games, vs 33.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	49.8	58.9	−9.1	921	RBs averaged 49.8 rush yds, vs 58.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.2 vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	36.9	42.2	−5.3	3,672	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.9 rec yds, vs 42.2. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 2 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	41.1%	41.0%	+0.1 pp	691	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 41.1% of games, vs 41.0%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	231.5	232.7	−1.2	691	QBs averaged 231.5 pass yds, vs 232.7. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.5 rec yds, vs 42.1. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.5 vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 35.5
Baseline: 42.1
Sample: 301 player-games
Adjusted: +5.5 vs each player’s own norm

See all 301 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	35.5	42.1	−6.6	301	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.5 rec yds, vs 42.1. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.5 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 1 measure

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	27.9%	34.0%	−6.0 pp	301	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 27.9% of games, vs 34.0%. Not a clear difference.

Too small 4 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	57	Too small to publish in this window: n=57 from 48 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	–	–	–	63	Too small to publish in this window: n=63 from 48 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	–	–	–	63	Too small to publish in this window: n=63 from 48 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	57	Too small to publish in this window: n=57 from 48 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 24.6% of games, vs 29.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 24.6%
Baseline: 29.6%
Sample: 662 player-games
Adjusted: +0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 662 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	24.6%	29.6%	−4.9 pp	662	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 24.6% of games, vs 29.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	50.3	59.2	−8.9	165	RBs averaged 50.3 rush yds, vs 59.2. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.5 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 4 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	36.2%	40.5%	−4.3 pp	130	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 36.2% of games, vs 40.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	24.8%	33.4%	−8.5 pp	165	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 24.8% of games, vs 33.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	35.9	38.7	−2.9	662	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.9 rec yds, vs 38.7. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	213.4	227.5	−14.2	130	QBs averaged 213.4 pass yds, vs 227.5. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.8% of games, vs 33.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 26.8%
Baseline: 33.3%
Sample: 2,893 player-games
Adjusted: +0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 2,893 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 4 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	26.8%	33.3%	−6.5 pp	2,893	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.8% of games, vs 33.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	23.9%	33.7%	−9.8 pp	728	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 23.9% of games, vs 33.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	49.4	59.2	−9.8	728	RBs averaged 49.4 rush yds, vs 59.2. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	36.0	41.5	−5.5	2,893	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.0 rec yds, vs 41.5. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 2 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	38.9%	40.0%	−1.1 pp	535	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 38.9% of games, vs 40.0%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	226.2	229.6	−3.4	535	QBs averaged 226.2 pass yds, vs 229.6. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 23.6% of games, vs 32.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 23.6%
Baseline: 32.9%
Sample: 921 player-games
Adjusted: −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 921 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 4 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	23.6%	32.9%	−9.3 pp	921	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 23.6% of games, vs 32.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.0%	33.8%	−5.8 pp	3,672	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.0% of games, vs 33.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	49.8	58.9	−9.1	921	RBs averaged 49.8 rush yds, vs 58.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.2 vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	36.9	42.2	−5.3	3,672	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.9 rec yds, vs 42.2. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 2 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	41.1%	41.0%	+0.1 pp	691	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 41.1% of games, vs 41.0%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	231.5	232.7	−1.2	691	QBs averaged 231.5 pass yds, vs 232.7. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 23.6% of games, vs 32.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 23.6%
Baseline: 32.9%
Sample: 921 player-games
Adjusted: −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 921 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 4 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	23.6%	32.9%	−9.3 pp	921	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 23.6% of games, vs 32.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.0%	33.8%	−5.8 pp	3,672	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.0% of games, vs 33.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	49.8	58.9	−9.1	921	RBs averaged 49.8 rush yds, vs 58.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.2 vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	36.9	42.2	−5.3	3,672	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.9 rec yds, vs 42.2. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 2 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	41.1%	41.0%	+0.1 pp	691	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 41.1% of games, vs 41.0%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	231.5	232.7	−1.2	691	QBs averaged 231.5 pass yds, vs 232.7. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Previous game (same season) at or below the player's own 25th percentile of all earlier stored games (10+ earlier games; no look-ahead)
Baseline: Same players after a game above their 25th percentile
All-time seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.