NFL · All time: Edge

Revenge: blown out in the last meeting

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. RBs reached 1+ TD in 32.2% of games, vs 40.1%. Adjusted: −6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 32.2%
Baseline: 40.1%
Sample: 286 player-games
Adjusted: −6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 286 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

RB 1+ TD: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	32.2%	40.1%	−7.9 pp	286	RBs reached 1+ TD in 32.2% of games, vs 40.1%. Adjusted: −6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	38.5%	51.5%	−12.9 pp	205	Teams won 38.5% of games in this spot, vs 51.5% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.4 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-3.7	0.5	−4.2	205	Average margin −3.7 vs +0.5 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 vs expectation for team strength).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	25.3	22.4	+2.9	205	Teams allowed 25.3 points a game, vs 22.4. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 16 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	55.1%	63.2%	−8.1 pp	214	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 55.1% of games, vs 63.2%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	35.0%	36.8%	−1.8 pp	214	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 35.0% of games, vs 36.8%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	40.2%	42.7%	−2.6 pp	214	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 40.2% of games, vs 42.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.7%	22.1%	−0.4 pp	1,031	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.7% of games, vs 22.1%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	43.9%	49.8%	−5.9 pp	214	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 43.9% of games, vs 49.8%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	43.0%	49.1%	−6.1 pp	286	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 43.0% of games, vs 49.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	24.5%	29.5%	−5.0 pp	286	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 24.5% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	11.5%	12.2%	−0.6 pp	286	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.5% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	15.9%	16.6%	−0.7 pp	1,031	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.9% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	37.9%	38.7%	−0.7 pp	1,031	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.9% of games, vs 38.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.4%	29.4%	−0.9 pp	1,031	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.4% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	214.7	225.8	−11.1	214	QBs averaged 214.7 pass yds, vs 225.8. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	51.1	55.8	−4.7	286	RBs averaged 51.1 rush yds, vs 55.8. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.6	38.2	−0.7	1,031	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.6 rec yds, vs 38.2. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	21.6	23.0	−1.3	205	Teams scored 21.6 points a game, vs 23.0. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	46.9	45.4	+1.5	205	Teams averaged 46.9 game total, vs 45.4. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Too small

Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Sample in this window: 17 team-games
Floor to publish: 200+ games

See all 17 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Too small 20 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	17	Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	17	Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	–	–	–	22	Too small to publish in this window: n=22 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	–	–	–	93	Too small to publish in this window: n=93 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	–	–	–	93	Too small to publish in this window: n=93 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	–	–	–	22	Too small to publish in this window: n=22 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	–	–	–	22	Too small to publish in this window: n=22 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	–	–	–	93	Too small to publish in this window: n=93 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	17	Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	17	Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	17	Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	–	–	–	93	Too small to publish in this window: n=93 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	–	–	–	22	Too small to publish in this window: n=22 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	17	Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	–	–	–	22	Too small to publish in this window: n=22 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	–	–	–	93	Too small to publish in this window: n=93 from 17 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	17	Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	17	Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	17	Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	17	Too small to publish in this window: n=17 from 17 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 9.4% of games, vs 14.3%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 9.4%
Baseline: 14.3%
Sample: 191 player-games
Adjusted: −3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 191 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	9.4%	14.3%	−4.8 pp	191	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 9.4% of games, vs 14.3%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	33.0%	35.0%	−2.0 pp	191	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 33.0% of games, vs 35.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	19.4%	20.8%	−1.4 pp	191	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.4% of games, vs 20.8%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	24.6%	25.9%	−1.3 pp	191	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 24.6% of games, vs 25.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	33.5	35.9	−2.4	191	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 33.5 rec yds, vs 35.9. Not a clear difference.

Too small 15 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	39	Too small to publish in this window: n=39 from 39 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	42	Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 39 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	42	Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 39 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	42	Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 39 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	42	Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 39 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	–	–	–	56	Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 39 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	–	–	–	56	Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 39 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	–	–	–	56	Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 39 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	–	–	–	56	Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 39 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	42	Too small to publish in this window: n=42 from 39 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	–	–	–	56	Too small to publish in this window: n=56 from 39 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	39	Too small to publish in this window: n=39 from 39 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	39	Too small to publish in this window: n=39 from 39 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	39	Too small to publish in this window: n=39 from 39 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	39	Too small to publish in this window: n=39 from 39 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. RBs reached 1+ TD in 30.5% of games, vs 39.4%. Adjusted: −7.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 30.5%
Baseline: 39.4%
Sample: 223 player-games
Adjusted: −7.5 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 223 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

RB 1+ TD: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	30.5%	39.4%	−8.9 pp	223	RBs reached 1+ TD in 30.5% of games, vs 39.4%. Adjusted: −7.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	51.8%	62.0%	−10.2 pp	164	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 51.8% of games, vs 62.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−5.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 13 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	33.5%	35.1%	−1.5 pp	164	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 33.5% of games, vs 35.1%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	39.0%	41.0%	−2.0 pp	164	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 39.0% of games, vs 41.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	23.8%	29.9%	−6.1 pp	223	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 23.8% of games, vs 29.9%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.1%	21.6%	−0.5 pp	796	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.1% of games, vs 21.6%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	43.3%	48.3%	−5.0 pp	164	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 43.3% of games, vs 48.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.6%	12.5%	+0.1 pp	223	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.6% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	42.6%	48.7%	−6.1 pp	223	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 42.6% of games, vs 48.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	15.7%	16.0%	−0.3 pp	796	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.7% of games, vs 16.0%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	27.0%	28.5%	−1.5 pp	796	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 27.0% of games, vs 28.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	36.4%	37.8%	−1.3 pp	796	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 36.4% of games, vs 37.8%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	211.6	222.5	−10.9	164	QBs averaged 211.6 pass yds, vs 222.5. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	51.0	55.7	−4.7	223	RBs averaged 51.0 rush yds, vs 55.7. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	36.8	37.6	−0.8	796	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.8 rec yds, vs 37.6. Not a clear difference.

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	157	Too small to publish in this window: n=157 from 157 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	157	Too small to publish in this window: n=157 from 157 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	157	Too small to publish in this window: n=157 from 157 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	157	Too small to publish in this window: n=157 from 157 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	157	Too small to publish in this window: n=157 from 157 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. RBs reached 1+ TD in 32.2% of games, vs 40.1%. Adjusted: −6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 32.2%
Baseline: 40.1%
Sample: 286 player-games
Adjusted: −6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 286 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

RB 1+ TD: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	32.2%	40.1%	−7.9 pp	286	RBs reached 1+ TD in 32.2% of games, vs 40.1%. Adjusted: −6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	38.5%	51.5%	−12.9 pp	205	Teams won 38.5% of games in this spot, vs 51.5% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.4 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-3.7	0.5	−4.2	205	Average margin −3.7 vs +0.5 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 vs expectation for team strength).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	25.3	22.4	+2.9	205	Teams allowed 25.3 points a game, vs 22.4. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 16 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	55.1%	63.2%	−8.1 pp	214	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 55.1% of games, vs 63.2%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	35.0%	36.8%	−1.8 pp	214	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 35.0% of games, vs 36.8%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	40.2%	42.7%	−2.6 pp	214	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 40.2% of games, vs 42.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.7%	22.1%	−0.4 pp	1,031	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.7% of games, vs 22.1%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	43.9%	49.8%	−5.9 pp	214	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 43.9% of games, vs 49.8%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	43.0%	49.1%	−6.1 pp	286	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 43.0% of games, vs 49.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	24.5%	29.5%	−5.0 pp	286	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 24.5% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	11.5%	12.2%	−0.6 pp	286	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.5% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	15.9%	16.6%	−0.7 pp	1,031	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.9% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	37.9%	38.7%	−0.7 pp	1,031	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.9% of games, vs 38.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.4%	29.4%	−0.9 pp	1,031	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.4% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	214.7	225.8	−11.1	214	QBs averaged 214.7 pass yds, vs 225.8. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	51.1	55.8	−4.7	286	RBs averaged 51.1 rush yds, vs 55.8. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.6	38.2	−0.7	1,031	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.6 rec yds, vs 38.2. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	21.6	23.0	−1.3	205	Teams scored 21.6 points a game, vs 23.0. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	46.9	45.4	+1.5	205	Teams averaged 46.9 game total, vs 45.4. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. RBs reached 1+ TD in 32.2% of games, vs 40.1%. Adjusted: −6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 32.2%
Baseline: 40.1%
Sample: 286 player-games
Adjusted: −6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 286 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

RB 1+ TD: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	32.2%	40.1%	−7.9 pp	286	RBs reached 1+ TD in 32.2% of games, vs 40.1%. Adjusted: −6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	38.5%	51.5%	−12.9 pp	205	Teams won 38.5% of games in this spot, vs 51.5% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.4 pp vs expectation for team strength).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-3.7	0.5	−4.2	205	Average margin −3.7 vs +0.5 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.8 vs expectation for team strength).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	25.3	22.4	+2.9	205	Teams allowed 25.3 points a game, vs 22.4. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 16 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	55.1%	63.2%	−8.1 pp	214	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 55.1% of games, vs 63.2%. Not a clear difference.
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	35.0%	36.8%	−1.8 pp	214	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 35.0% of games, vs 36.8%. Not a clear difference.
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	40.2%	42.7%	−2.6 pp	214	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 40.2% of games, vs 42.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.7%	22.1%	−0.4 pp	1,031	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.7% of games, vs 22.1%. Not a clear difference.
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	43.9%	49.8%	−5.9 pp	214	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 43.9% of games, vs 49.8%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	43.0%	49.1%	−6.1 pp	286	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 43.0% of games, vs 49.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	24.5%	29.5%	−5.0 pp	286	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 24.5% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	11.5%	12.2%	−0.6 pp	286	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.5% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	15.9%	16.6%	−0.7 pp	1,031	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.9% of games, vs 16.6%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	37.9%	38.7%	−0.7 pp	1,031	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 37.9% of games, vs 38.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	28.4%	29.4%	−0.9 pp	1,031	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 28.4% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	214.7	225.8	−11.1	214	QBs averaged 214.7 pass yds, vs 225.8. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	51.1	55.8	−4.7	286	RBs averaged 51.1 rush yds, vs 55.8. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	37.6	38.2	−0.7	1,031	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 37.6 rec yds, vs 38.2. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	21.6	23.0	−1.3	205	Teams scored 21.6 points a game, vs 23.0. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	46.9	45.4	+1.5	205	Teams averaged 46.9 game total, vs 45.4. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Lost the last meeting (within 400 days) by the blowout margin
Baseline: Other team-games with a previous meeting
All-time seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.