NFL · All time: Myth checked
Birthday week (+/-3 days)
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.7% of games, vs 23.6%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 21.7%
- Baseline
- 23.6%
- Sample
- 286 player-games
- Adjusted
- −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 286 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.7% | 23.6% | −1.9 pp | 286 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.7% of games, vs 23.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 42.0% | 41.8% | +0.1 pp | 286 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 42.0% of games, vs 41.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 17.5% | 18.4% | −0.9 pp | 286 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.5% of games, vs 18.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 32.9% | 31.9% | +1.0 pp | 286 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 32.9% of games, vs 31.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 40.0 | 40.5 | −0.5 | 286 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.0 rec yds, vs 40.5. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=26 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 26 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 26 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 26 | Too small to publish in this window: n=26 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 26 | Too small to publish in this window: n=26 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 26 | Too small to publish in this window: n=26 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 26 | Too small to publish in this window: n=26 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 26 | Too small to publish in this window: n=26 from 24 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025 (1 season).
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=58 from 50 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 58 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 58 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 58 | Too small to publish in this window: n=58 from 50 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 58 | Too small to publish in this window: n=58 from 50 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | – | – | – | 58 | Too small to publish in this window: n=58 from 50 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | – | – | – | 58 | Too small to publish in this window: n=58 from 50 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | – | – | – | 58 | Too small to publish in this window: n=58 from 50 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.1% of games, vs 40.2%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 38.1%
- Baseline
- 40.2%
- Sample
- 231 player-games
- Adjusted
- −2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 231 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 38.1% | 40.2% | −2.1 pp | 231 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 38.1% of games, vs 40.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.2% | 22.7% | −1.5 pp | 231 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.2% of games, vs 22.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 15.6% | 17.4% | −1.8 pp | 231 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 15.6% of games, vs 17.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 29.4% | 30.6% | −1.1 pp | 231 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 29.4% of games, vs 30.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 36.4 | 39.2 | −2.8 | 231 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.4 rec yds, vs 39.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.7% of games, vs 23.6%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 21.7%
- Baseline
- 23.6%
- Sample
- 286 player-games
- Adjusted
- −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 286 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.7% | 23.6% | −1.9 pp | 286 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.7% of games, vs 23.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 42.0% | 41.8% | +0.1 pp | 286 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 42.0% of games, vs 41.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 17.5% | 18.4% | −0.9 pp | 286 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.5% of games, vs 18.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 32.9% | 31.9% | +1.0 pp | 286 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 32.9% of games, vs 31.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 40.0 | 40.5 | −0.5 | 286 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.0 rec yds, vs 40.5. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.7% of games, vs 23.6%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 21.7%
- Baseline
- 23.6%
- Sample
- 286 player-games
- Adjusted
- −2.3 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 286 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 5 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD → | 21.7% | 23.6% | −1.9 pp | 286 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.7% of games, vs 23.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds → | 42.0% | 41.8% | +0.1 pp | 286 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 42.0% of games, vs 41.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds → | 17.5% | 18.4% | −0.9 pp | 286 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 17.5% of games, vs 18.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds → | 32.9% | 31.9% | +1.0 pp | 286 | Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 32.9% of games, vs 31.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds → | 40.0 | 40.5 | −0.5 | 286 | Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.0 rec yds, vs 40.5. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
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Definitions
- The spot
- Game within 3 days of the birthday (includes the day)
- Baseline
- Other games of players with a known DOB
- All-time seasons
- 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.