NFL · All time: Edge

After a blowout win (letdown spot)

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 47.7% of games, vs 37.0%. Adjusted: +5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 47.7%
Baseline: 37.0%
Sample: 472 player-games
Adjusted: +5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 472 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 250+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 5 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	47.7%	37.0%	+10.7 pp	472	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 47.7% of games, vs 37.0%. Adjusted: +5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	73.3%	62.3%	+11.0 pp	472	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 73.3% of games, vs 62.3%. Adjusted: +4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	43.0%	38.7%	+4.3 pp	2,347	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 43.0% of games, vs 38.7%. Adjusted: +2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	33.2%	29.3%	+4.0 pp	2,347	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 33.2% of games, vs 29.3%. Adjusted: +2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	243.5	223.9	+19.6	472	QBs averaged 243.5 pass yds, vs 223.9. Adjusted: +8.0 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 7 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	58.0%	48.6%	+9.3 pp	459	Teams won 58.0% of games in this spot, vs 48.6% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs expectation for team strength).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	60.4%	49.5%	+10.9 pp	472	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 60.4% of games, vs 49.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	48.9%	42.7%	+6.3 pp	472	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 48.9% of games, vs 42.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	19.2%	16.3%	+3.0 pp	2,347	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 19.2% of games, vs 16.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	25.8%	21.9%	+3.9 pp	2,347	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 25.8% of games, vs 21.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	41.2	38.1	+3.1	2,347	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 41.2 rec yds, vs 38.1. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	2.8	-0.4	+3.2	459	Average margin +2.8 vs −0.4 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.2 vs expectation for team strength).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	25.4	22.6	+2.8	459	Teams scored 25.4 points a game, vs 22.6. Not adjusted for team strength.
game totalSee the games for game total →	48.0	45.6	+2.4	459	Teams averaged 48.0 game total, vs 45.6. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 6 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	40.1%	39.7%	+0.5 pp	643	RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.1% of games, vs 39.7%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	30.3%	29.6%	+0.7 pp	643	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.3% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	52.1%	49.6%	+2.5 pp	643	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 52.1% of games, vs 49.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	13.5%	12.3%	+1.2 pp	643	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.5% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	57.5	55.6	+1.8	643	RBs averaged 57.5 rush yds, vs 55.6. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	22.6	23.0	−0.4	459	Teams allowed 22.6 points a game, vs 23.0. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Too small

Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Sample in this window: 29 team-games
Floor to publish: 200+ games

See all 29 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Too small 20 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	–	–	–	41	Too small to publish in this window: n=41 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	28	Too small to publish in this window: n=28 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	28	Too small to publish in this window: n=28 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	28	Too small to publish in this window: n=28 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	28	Too small to publish in this window: n=28 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	–	–	–	41	Too small to publish in this window: n=41 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	–	–	–	142	Too small to publish in this window: n=142 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	–	–	–	41	Too small to publish in this window: n=41 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	–	–	–	142	Too small to publish in this window: n=142 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	–	–	–	142	Too small to publish in this window: n=142 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	–	–	–	142	Too small to publish in this window: n=142 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	–	–	–	41	Too small to publish in this window: n=41 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	28	Too small to publish in this window: n=28 from 27 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	–	–	–	142	Too small to publish in this window: n=142 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	–	–	–	41	Too small to publish in this window: n=41 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 42.5% of games, vs 34.3%. Adjusted: +6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 42.5%
Baseline: 34.3%
Sample: 407 player-games
Adjusted: +6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 407 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

WR/TE 40+ rec yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 3 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	42.5%	34.3%	+8.2 pp	407	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 42.5% of games, vs 34.3%. Adjusted: +6.6 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	31.7%	24.9%	+6.8 pp	407	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 31.7% of games, vs 24.9%. Adjusted: +5.0 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	19.7%	13.6%	+6.1 pp	407	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 19.7% of games, vs 13.6%. Adjusted: +4.3 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	27.5%	21.2%	+6.4 pp	407	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 27.5% of games, vs 21.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	39.5	35.4	+4.1	407	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 39.5 rec yds, vs 35.4. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.5 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	48.3%	37.0%	+11.3 pp	118	RBs reached 1+ TD in 48.3% of games, vs 37.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	58.5%	48.4%	+10.1 pp	118	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 58.5% of games, vs 48.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	32.2%	29.9%	+2.4 pp	118	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 32.2% of games, vs 29.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.7%	12.1%	+0.6 pp	118	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.7% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	59.7	55.4	+4.4	118	RBs averaged 59.7 rush yds, vs 55.4. Not a clear difference.

Too small 10 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	78	Too small to publish in this window: n=78 from 72 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	79	Too small to publish in this window: n=79 from 72 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	79	Too small to publish in this window: n=79 from 72 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	79	Too small to publish in this window: n=79 from 72 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	79	Too small to publish in this window: n=79 from 72 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	79	Too small to publish in this window: n=79 from 72 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	78	Too small to publish in this window: n=78 from 72 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	78	Too small to publish in this window: n=78 from 72 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	78	Too small to publish in this window: n=78 from 72 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	78	Too small to publish in this window: n=78 from 72 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 74.9% of games, vs 60.5%. Adjusted: +6.0 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.

In the spot: 74.9%
Baseline: 60.5%
Sample: 319 player-games
Adjusted: +6.0 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 319 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 200+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	74.9%	60.5%	+14.4 pp	319	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 74.9% of games, vs 60.5%. Adjusted: +6.0 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	42.3%	37.9%	+4.5 pp	1,599	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 42.3% of games, vs 37.9%. Adjusted: +2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 10 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	56.2%	48.9%	+7.3 pp	315	Teams won 56.2% of games in this spot, vs 48.9% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.0 pp vs expectation for team strength).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	61.4%	47.2%	+14.2 pp	319	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 61.4% of games, vs 47.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	46.7%	35.2%	+11.5 pp	319	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 46.7% of games, vs 35.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	47.6%	40.6%	+7.1 pp	319	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 47.6% of games, vs 40.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	32.5%	28.6%	+3.8 pp	1,599	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 32.5% of games, vs 28.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	18.9%	16.0%	+3.0 pp	1,599	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 18.9% of games, vs 16.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	24.2%	21.5%	+2.7 pp	1,599	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 24.2% of games, vs 21.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	242.1	220.1	+22.1	319	QBs averaged 242.1 pass yds, vs 220.1. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+7.8 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	2.3	-0.4	+2.7	315	Average margin +2.3 vs −0.4 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.6 vs expectation for team strength).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	40.3	37.5	+2.7	1,599	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 40.3 rec yds, vs 37.5. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.0 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	24.8	22.2	+2.6	315	Teams scored 24.8 points a game, vs 22.2. Not adjusted for team strength.
game totalSee the games for game total →	47.3	44.8	+2.5	315	Teams averaged 47.3 game total, vs 44.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 6 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	40.8%	38.9%	+1.9 pp	441	RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.8% of games, vs 38.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	52.6%	49.3%	+3.3 pp	441	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 52.6% of games, vs 49.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	33.1%	29.9%	+3.2 pp	441	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 33.1% of games, vs 29.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	15.9%	12.2%	+3.7 pp	441	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 15.9% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	59.0	55.4	+3.6	441	RBs averaged 59.0 rush yds, vs 55.4. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	22.5	22.6	−0.1	315	Teams allowed 22.5 points a game, vs 22.6. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 47.7% of games, vs 37.0%. Adjusted: +5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 47.7%
Baseline: 37.0%
Sample: 472 player-games
Adjusted: +5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 472 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 250+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 5 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	47.7%	37.0%	+10.7 pp	472	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 47.7% of games, vs 37.0%. Adjusted: +5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	73.3%	62.3%	+11.0 pp	472	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 73.3% of games, vs 62.3%. Adjusted: +4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	43.0%	38.7%	+4.3 pp	2,347	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 43.0% of games, vs 38.7%. Adjusted: +2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	33.2%	29.3%	+4.0 pp	2,347	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 33.2% of games, vs 29.3%. Adjusted: +2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	243.5	223.9	+19.6	472	QBs averaged 243.5 pass yds, vs 223.9. Adjusted: +8.0 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 7 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	58.0%	48.6%	+9.3 pp	459	Teams won 58.0% of games in this spot, vs 48.6% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs expectation for team strength).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	60.4%	49.5%	+10.9 pp	472	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 60.4% of games, vs 49.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	48.9%	42.7%	+6.3 pp	472	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 48.9% of games, vs 42.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	19.2%	16.3%	+3.0 pp	2,347	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 19.2% of games, vs 16.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	25.8%	21.9%	+3.9 pp	2,347	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 25.8% of games, vs 21.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	41.2	38.1	+3.1	2,347	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 41.2 rec yds, vs 38.1. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	2.8	-0.4	+3.2	459	Average margin +2.8 vs −0.4 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.2 vs expectation for team strength).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	25.4	22.6	+2.8	459	Teams scored 25.4 points a game, vs 22.6. Not adjusted for team strength.
game totalSee the games for game total →	48.0	45.6	+2.4	459	Teams averaged 48.0 game total, vs 45.6. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 6 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	40.1%	39.7%	+0.5 pp	643	RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.1% of games, vs 39.7%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	30.3%	29.6%	+0.7 pp	643	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.3% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	52.1%	49.6%	+2.5 pp	643	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 52.1% of games, vs 49.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	13.5%	12.3%	+1.2 pp	643	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.5% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	57.5	55.6	+1.8	643	RBs averaged 57.5 rush yds, vs 55.6. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	22.6	23.0	−0.4	459	Teams allowed 22.6 points a game, vs 23.0. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 47.7% of games, vs 37.0%. Adjusted: +5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 47.7%
Baseline: 37.0%
Sample: 472 player-games
Adjusted: +5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 472 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

QB 250+ pass yds: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 5 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	47.7%	37.0%	+10.7 pp	472	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 47.7% of games, vs 37.0%. Adjusted: +5.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	73.3%	62.3%	+11.0 pp	472	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 73.3% of games, vs 62.3%. Adjusted: +4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	43.0%	38.7%	+4.3 pp	2,347	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 43.0% of games, vs 38.7%. Adjusted: +2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	33.2%	29.3%	+4.0 pp	2,347	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 33.2% of games, vs 29.3%. Adjusted: +2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	243.5	223.9	+19.6	472	QBs averaged 243.5 pass yds, vs 223.9. Adjusted: +8.0 vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 7 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	58.0%	48.6%	+9.3 pp	459	Teams won 58.0% of games in this spot, vs 48.6% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs expectation for team strength).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	60.4%	49.5%	+10.9 pp	472	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 60.4% of games, vs 49.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	48.9%	42.7%	+6.3 pp	472	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 48.9% of games, vs 42.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	19.2%	16.3%	+3.0 pp	2,347	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 19.2% of games, vs 16.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	25.8%	21.9%	+3.9 pp	2,347	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 25.8% of games, vs 21.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	41.2	38.1	+3.1	2,347	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 41.2 rec yds, vs 38.1. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.3 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	2.8	-0.4	+3.2	459	Average margin +2.8 vs −0.4 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.2 vs expectation for team strength).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	25.4	22.6	+2.8	459	Teams scored 25.4 points a game, vs 22.6. Not adjusted for team strength.
game totalSee the games for game total →	48.0	45.6	+2.4	459	Teams averaged 48.0 game total, vs 45.6. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 6 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	40.1%	39.7%	+0.5 pp	643	RBs reached 1+ TD in 40.1% of games, vs 39.7%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	30.3%	29.6%	+0.7 pp	643	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.3% of games, vs 29.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	52.1%	49.6%	+2.5 pp	643	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 52.1% of games, vs 49.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	13.5%	12.3%	+1.2 pp	643	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 13.5% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	57.5	55.6	+1.8	643	RBs averaged 57.5 rush yds, vs 55.6. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	22.6	23.0	−0.4	459	Teams allowed 22.6 points a game, vs 23.0. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Previous game (same season) won by 17+ NFL / 20+ NBA / 3+ NHL
Baseline: Other team-games with a scored previous game
All-time seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.