NFL · All time: Explained by quality

After a blowout loss (bounce-back spot)

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 42.4% of games in this spot, vs 50.9% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.9 pp vs expectation for team strength).

In the spot: 42.4%
Baseline: 50.9%
Sample: 432 team-games
Adjusted: +2.9 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 432 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 11 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	42.4%	50.9%	−8.6 pp	432	Teams won 42.4% of games in this spot, vs 50.9% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.9 pp vs expectation for team strength).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.7%	39.8%	−4.1 pp	2,176	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.7% of games, vs 39.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	26.6%	30.2%	−3.7 pp	2,176	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.6% of games, vs 30.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	32.7%	39.3%	−6.6 pp	453	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 32.7% of games, vs 39.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	56.5%	64.8%	−8.3 pp	453	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 56.5% of games, vs 64.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	19.7%	22.8%	−3.2 pp	2,176	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.7% of games, vs 22.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	14.2%	17.0%	−2.7 pp	2,176	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.2% of games, vs 17.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	42.2%	52.2%	−10.0 pp	453	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 42.2% of games, vs 52.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-3.0	0.4	−3.4	432	Average margin −3.0 vs +0.4 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 vs expectation for team strength).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	211.9	228.7	−16.7	453	QBs averaged 211.9 pass yds, vs 228.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	36.0	38.9	−2.9	2,176	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.0 rec yds, vs 38.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	21.0	23.2	−2.3	432	Teams scored 21.0 points a game, vs 23.2. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	23.9	22.8	+1.1	432	Teams allowed 23.9 points a game, vs 22.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 7 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	40.8%	43.9%	−3.0 pp	453	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 40.8% of games, vs 43.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	31.0%	29.5%	+1.5 pp	604	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 31.0% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	47.7%	50.2%	−2.6 pp	604	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 47.7% of games, vs 50.2%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	36.9%	40.1%	−3.2 pp	604	RBs reached 1+ TD in 36.9% of games, vs 40.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	11.6%	12.6%	−1.0 pp	604	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.6% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.5	56.0	−0.5	604	RBs averaged 55.5 rush yds, vs 56.0. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	44.9	46.1	−1.2	432	Teams averaged 44.9 game total, vs 46.1. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026, in progress: 136 games through 2026-11-09.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 33.6% of games, vs 38.2%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 33.6%
Baseline: 38.2%
Sample: 149 player-games
Adjusted: −10.9 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 149 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 5 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	33.6%	38.2%	−4.6 pp	149	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 33.6% of games, vs 38.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	27.5%	29.4%	−1.9 pp	149	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 27.5% of games, vs 29.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	18.8%	22.8%	−4.0 pp	149	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 18.8% of games, vs 22.8%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	10.7%	16.7%	−6.0 pp	149	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 10.7% of games, vs 16.7%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	33.8	38.1	−4.3	149	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 33.8 rec yds, vs 38.1. Not a clear difference.

Too small 15 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	30	Too small to publish in this window: n=30 from 30 games (the floor is 200+ games).
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	–	–	–	46	Too small to publish in this window: n=46 from 30 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	–	–	–	46	Too small to publish in this window: n=46 from 30 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	–	–	–	46	Too small to publish in this window: n=46 from 30 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	30	Too small to publish in this window: n=30 from 30 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	30	Too small to publish in this window: n=30 from 30 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	30	Too small to publish in this window: n=30 from 30 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	–	–	–	46	Too small to publish in this window: n=46 from 30 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	30	Too small to publish in this window: n=30 from 30 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	–	–	–	46	Too small to publish in this window: n=46 from 30 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	30	Too small to publish in this window: n=30 from 30 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	30	Too small to publish in this window: n=30 from 30 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	30	Too small to publish in this window: n=30 from 30 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	30	Too small to publish in this window: n=30 from 30 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	30	Too small to publish in this window: n=30 from 30 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025 (1 season).

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.8% of games, vs 30.1%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 30.8%
Baseline: 30.1%
Sample: 107 player-games
Adjusted: +4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 107 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 10 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	30.8%	30.1%	+0.7 pp	107	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.8% of games, vs 30.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	34.6%	39.4%	−4.8 pp	107	RBs reached 1+ TD in 34.6% of games, vs 39.4%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	21.1%	22.3%	−1.2 pp	356	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 21.1% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	30.9%	36.2%	−5.3 pp	356	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 30.9% of games, vs 36.2%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	45.8%	50.5%	−4.7 pp	107	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 45.8% of games, vs 50.5%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	12.6%	14.8%	−2.1 pp	356	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 12.6% of games, vs 14.8%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	12.1%	12.2%	−0.0 pp	107	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 12.1% of games, vs 12.2%. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	22.8%	26.4%	−3.6 pp	356	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 22.8% of games, vs 26.4%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	53.3	56.4	−3.1	107	RBs averaged 53.3 rush yds, vs 56.4. Not a clear difference.
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	33.3	36.4	−3.1	356	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 33.3 rec yds, vs 36.4. Not a clear difference.

Too small 10 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	72	Too small to publish in this window: n=72 from 68 games (the floor is 200+ games).
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	–	–	–	74	Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 68 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	–	–	–	74	Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 68 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	–	–	–	74	Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 68 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	–	–	–	74	Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 68 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	–	–	–	74	Too small to publish in this window: n=74 from 68 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	72	Too small to publish in this window: n=72 from 68 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	72	Too small to publish in this window: n=72 from 68 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	72	Too small to publish in this window: n=72 from 68 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	72	Too small to publish in this window: n=72 from 68 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last 5 seasons: 2022 to 2026 (5 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Teams won 40.9% of games in this spot, vs 51.1% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 pp vs expectation for team strength).

In the spot: 40.9%
Baseline: 51.1%
Sample: 296 team-games
Adjusted: +0.9 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 296 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 11 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	40.9%	51.1%	−10.3 pp	296	Teams won 40.9% of games in this spot, vs 51.1% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 pp vs expectation for team strength).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	31.3%	37.5%	−6.2 pp	310	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 31.3% of games, vs 37.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.0%	39.0%	−3.9 pp	1,467	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.0% of games, vs 39.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	26.0%	29.6%	−3.5 pp	1,467	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.0% of games, vs 29.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	14.1%	16.7%	−2.6 pp	1,467	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.1% of games, vs 16.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	52.9%	63.7%	−10.8 pp	310	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 52.9% of games, vs 63.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	39.4%	50.4%	−11.1 pp	310	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 39.4% of games, vs 50.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	19.7%	22.2%	−2.5 pp	1,467	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.7% of games, vs 22.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	208.3	225.0	−16.7	310	QBs averaged 208.3 pass yds, vs 225.0. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.3 vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	35.5	38.2	−2.8	1,467	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 35.5 rec yds, vs 38.2. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.9 vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-3.4	0.5	−3.8	296	Average margin −3.4 vs +0.5 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 vs expectation for team strength).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	20.8	22.8	−2.0	296	Teams scored 20.8 points a game, vs 22.8. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	24.2	22.3	+1.8	296	Teams allowed 24.2 points a game, vs 22.3. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 7 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	41.3%	41.5%	−0.2 pp	310	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 41.3% of games, vs 41.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	30.0%	30.3%	−0.3 pp	433	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 30.0% of games, vs 30.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	46.4%	50.3%	−3.8 pp	433	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 46.4% of games, vs 50.3%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	35.8%	39.7%	−3.9 pp	433	RBs reached 1+ TD in 35.8% of games, vs 39.7%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	10.6%	13.0%	−2.3 pp	433	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 10.6% of games, vs 13.0%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	54.1	56.1	−2.0	433	RBs averaged 54.1 rush yds, vs 56.1. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	45.0	45.2	−0.2	296	Teams averaged 45.0 game total, vs 45.2. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 42.4%
Baseline: 50.9%
Sample: 432 team-games
Adjusted: +2.9 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 432 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 11 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	42.4%	50.9%	−8.6 pp	432	Teams won 42.4% of games in this spot, vs 50.9% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.9 pp vs expectation for team strength).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.7%	39.8%	−4.1 pp	2,176	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.7% of games, vs 39.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	26.6%	30.2%	−3.7 pp	2,176	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.6% of games, vs 30.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	32.7%	39.3%	−6.6 pp	453	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 32.7% of games, vs 39.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	56.5%	64.8%	−8.3 pp	453	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 56.5% of games, vs 64.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	19.7%	22.8%	−3.2 pp	2,176	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.7% of games, vs 22.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	14.2%	17.0%	−2.7 pp	2,176	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.2% of games, vs 17.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	42.2%	52.2%	−10.0 pp	453	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 42.2% of games, vs 52.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-3.0	0.4	−3.4	432	Average margin −3.0 vs +0.4 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 vs expectation for team strength).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	211.9	228.7	−16.7	453	QBs averaged 211.9 pass yds, vs 228.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	36.0	38.9	−2.9	2,176	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.0 rec yds, vs 38.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	21.0	23.2	−2.3	432	Teams scored 21.0 points a game, vs 23.2. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	23.9	22.8	+1.1	432	Teams allowed 23.9 points a game, vs 22.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 7 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	40.8%	43.9%	−3.0 pp	453	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 40.8% of games, vs 43.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	31.0%	29.5%	+1.5 pp	604	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 31.0% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	47.7%	50.2%	−2.6 pp	604	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 47.7% of games, vs 50.2%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	36.9%	40.1%	−3.2 pp	604	RBs reached 1+ TD in 36.9% of games, vs 40.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	11.6%	12.6%	−1.0 pp	604	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.6% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.5	56.0	−0.5	604	RBs averaged 55.5 rush yds, vs 56.0. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	44.9	46.1	−1.2	432	Teams averaged 44.9 game total, vs 46.1. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2020 to 2026 (7 seasons); 2026 in progress, through 2026-11-09; only 7 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Explained by quality

In the spot: 42.4%
Baseline: 50.9%
Sample: 432 team-games
Adjusted: +2.9 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 432 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 11 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	42.4%	50.9%	−8.6 pp	432	Teams won 42.4% of games in this spot, vs 50.9% in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.9 pp vs expectation for team strength).
WR/TE 40+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 40+ rec yds →	35.7%	39.8%	−4.1 pp	2,176	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 40+ rec yds in 35.7% of games, vs 39.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 50+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 50+ rec yds →	26.6%	30.2%	−3.7 pp	2,176	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 50+ rec yds in 26.6% of games, vs 30.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 250+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 250+ pass yds →	32.7%	39.3%	−6.6 pp	453	QBs reached 250+ pass yds in 32.7% of games, vs 39.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 200+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 200+ pass yds →	56.5%	64.8%	−8.3 pp	453	QBs reached 200+ pass yds in 56.5% of games, vs 64.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 1+ TDSee the games for WR/TE 1+ TD →	19.7%	22.8%	−3.2 pp	2,176	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 1+ TD in 19.7% of games, vs 22.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE 70+ rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE 70+ rec yds →	14.2%	17.0%	−2.7 pp	2,176	Receivers (WR/TE) reached 70+ rec yds in 14.2% of games, vs 17.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
QB 225+ pass ydsSee the games for QB 225+ pass yds →	42.2%	52.2%	−10.0 pp	453	QBs reached 225+ pass yds in 42.2% of games, vs 52.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-3.0	0.4	−3.4	432	Average margin −3.0 vs +0.4 in the baseline. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.2 vs expectation for team strength).
QB avg pass ydsSee the games for QB avg pass yds →	211.9	228.7	−16.7	453	QBs averaged 211.9 pass yds, vs 228.7. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.9 vs each player’s own norm).
WR/TE avg rec ydsSee the games for WR/TE avg rec yds →	36.0	38.9	−2.9	2,176	Receivers (WR/TE) averaged 36.0 rec yds, vs 38.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	21.0	23.2	−2.3	432	Teams scored 21.0 points a game, vs 23.2. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	23.9	22.8	+1.1	432	Teams allowed 23.9 points a game, vs 22.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 7 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
QB 2+ pass TDSee the games for QB 2+ pass TD →	40.8%	43.9%	−3.0 pp	453	QBs reached 2+ pass TD in 40.8% of games, vs 43.9%. Not a clear difference.
RB 70+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 70+ rush yds →	31.0%	29.5%	+1.5 pp	604	RBs reached 70+ rush yds in 31.0% of games, vs 29.5%. Not a clear difference.
RB 50+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 50+ rush yds →	47.7%	50.2%	−2.6 pp	604	RBs reached 50+ rush yds in 47.7% of games, vs 50.2%. Not a clear difference.
RB 1+ TDSee the games for RB 1+ TD →	36.9%	40.1%	−3.2 pp	604	RBs reached 1+ TD in 36.9% of games, vs 40.1%. Not a clear difference.
RB 100+ rush ydsSee the games for RB 100+ rush yds →	11.6%	12.6%	−1.0 pp	604	RBs reached 100+ rush yds in 11.6% of games, vs 12.6%. Not a clear difference.
RB avg rush ydsSee the games for RB avg rush yds →	55.5	56.0	−0.5	604	RBs averaged 55.5 rush yds, vs 56.0. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	44.9	46.1	−1.2	432	Teams averaged 44.9 game total, vs 46.1. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

(0.4 MB)

Definitions

The spot: Previous game (same season) lost by 17+ NFL / 20+ NBA / 3+ NHL
Baseline: Other team-games with a scored previous game
All-time seasons: 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, through 2026-11-09
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.