NBA · All time: Explained by quality
Pacific team playing in Eastern time
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 11.5% of games, vs 8.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 11.5%
- Baseline
- 8.7%
- Sample
- 1,294 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 1,294 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 11.5% | 8.7% | +2.8 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 11.5% of games, vs 8.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 14.8% | 12.9% | +2.0 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 25+ pts in 14.8% of games, vs 12.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 43.6% | 46.2% | −2.6 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 2+ threes in 43.6% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.1% | 27.1% | +0.9 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.1% of games, vs 27.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 25.7% | 26.1% | −0.3 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 3+ threes in 25.7% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 13.0% | 11.9% | +1.0 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 10+ reb in 13.0% of games, vs 11.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.7% | 8.3% | +1.4 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.7% of games, vs 8.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.3% | 21.8% | +0.5 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.3% of games, vs 21.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 26.1% | 25.2% | +0.9 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 20+ pts in 26.1% of games, vs 25.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 27.6% | 25.5% | +2.1 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 27.6% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 45.3% | 44.2% | +1.1 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 15+ pts in 45.3% of games, vs 44.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.1 | 14.7 | +0.4 | 1,294 | Players averaged 15.1 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 2 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 14 player-games
- Floor to publish
- 100+ player-games from 30+ games
See all 14 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 12 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 14 | Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 2 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | – | – | – | 14 | Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 2 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | – | – | – | 14 | Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 2 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | – | – | – | 14 | Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 2 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | – | – | – | 14 | Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 2 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 14 | Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 2 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | – | – | – | 14 | Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 2 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | – | – | – | 14 | Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 2 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | – | – | – | 14 | Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 2 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | – | – | – | 14 | Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 2 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | – | – | – | 14 | Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 2 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | – | – | – | 14 | Too small to publish in this window: n=14 from 2 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 2+ threes in 41.0% of games, vs 45.5%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 41.0%
- Baseline
- 45.5%
- Sample
- 441 player-games
- Adjusted
- −4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 441 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 41.0% | 45.5% | −4.5 pp | 441 | Players reached 2+ threes in 41.0% of games, vs 45.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 40.4% | 44.4% | −4.1 pp | 441 | Players reached 15+ pts in 40.4% of games, vs 44.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 23.1% | 25.7% | −2.6 pp | 441 | Players reached 3+ threes in 23.1% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 19.5% | 21.3% | −1.8 pp | 441 | Players reached 8+ reb in 19.5% of games, vs 21.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 23.1% | 24.6% | −1.5 pp | 441 | Players reached 20+ pts in 23.1% of games, vs 24.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 14.3% | 12.5% | +1.8 pp | 441 | Players reached 25+ pts in 14.3% of games, vs 12.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 23.8% | 24.4% | −0.6 pp | 441 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 23.8% of games, vs 24.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 7.5% | 7.7% | −0.2 pp | 441 | Players reached 8+ ast in 7.5% of games, vs 7.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 24.9% | 26.4% | −1.5 pp | 441 | Players reached 5+ ast in 24.9% of games, vs 26.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 9.5% | 8.3% | +1.2 pp | 441 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.5% of games, vs 8.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 11.1% | 11.3% | −0.2 pp | 441 | Players reached 10+ reb in 11.1% of games, vs 11.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.4 | 14.6 | −0.2 | 441 | Players averaged 14.4 pts, vs 14.6. Not a clear difference. |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 11.5% of games, vs 8.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 11.5%
- Baseline
- 8.7%
- Sample
- 1,294 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 1,294 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 11.5% | 8.7% | +2.8 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 11.5% of games, vs 8.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 14.8% | 12.9% | +2.0 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 25+ pts in 14.8% of games, vs 12.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 43.6% | 46.2% | −2.6 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 2+ threes in 43.6% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.1% | 27.1% | +0.9 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.1% of games, vs 27.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 25.7% | 26.1% | −0.3 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 3+ threes in 25.7% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 13.0% | 11.9% | +1.0 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 10+ reb in 13.0% of games, vs 11.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.7% | 8.3% | +1.4 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.7% of games, vs 8.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.3% | 21.8% | +0.5 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.3% of games, vs 21.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 26.1% | 25.2% | +0.9 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 20+ pts in 26.1% of games, vs 25.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 27.6% | 25.5% | +2.1 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 27.6% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 45.3% | 44.2% | +1.1 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 15+ pts in 45.3% of games, vs 44.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.1 | 14.7 | +0.4 | 1,294 | Players averaged 15.1 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 11.5% of games, vs 8.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 11.5%
- Baseline
- 8.7%
- Sample
- 1,294 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 1,294 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 11.5% | 8.7% | +2.8 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 11.5% of games, vs 8.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 14.8% | 12.9% | +2.0 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 25+ pts in 14.8% of games, vs 12.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 43.6% | 46.2% | −2.6 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 2+ threes in 43.6% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.1% | 27.1% | +0.9 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.1% of games, vs 27.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 25.7% | 26.1% | −0.3 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 3+ threes in 25.7% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 13.0% | 11.9% | +1.0 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 10+ reb in 13.0% of games, vs 11.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.7% | 8.3% | +1.4 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.7% of games, vs 8.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.3% | 21.8% | +0.5 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.3% of games, vs 21.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 26.1% | 25.2% | +0.9 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 20+ pts in 26.1% of games, vs 25.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 27.6% | 25.5% | +2.1 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 27.6% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 45.3% | 44.2% | +1.1 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 15+ pts in 45.3% of games, vs 44.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.1 | 14.7 | +0.4 | 1,294 | Players averaged 15.1 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 11.5% of games, vs 8.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 11.5%
- Baseline
- 8.7%
- Sample
- 1,294 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 1,294 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 11.5% | 8.7% | +2.8 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 11.5% of games, vs 8.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 14.8% | 12.9% | +2.0 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 25+ pts in 14.8% of games, vs 12.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 43.6% | 46.2% | −2.6 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 2+ threes in 43.6% of games, vs 46.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.1% | 27.1% | +0.9 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.1% of games, vs 27.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 25.7% | 26.1% | −0.3 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 3+ threes in 25.7% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 13.0% | 11.9% | +1.0 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 10+ reb in 13.0% of games, vs 11.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.7% | 8.3% | +1.4 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.7% of games, vs 8.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.3% | 21.8% | +0.5 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.3% of games, vs 21.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 26.1% | 25.2% | +0.9 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 20+ pts in 26.1% of games, vs 25.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 27.6% | 25.5% | +2.1 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 27.6% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 45.3% | 44.2% | +1.1 pp | 1,294 | Players reached 15+ pts in 45.3% of games, vs 44.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.1 | 14.7 | +0.4 | 1,294 | Players averaged 15.1 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(80 KB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Pacific-time team road game at an Eastern-time home team
- Baseline
- Other domestic road team-games
- All-time seasons
- 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.