NBA · All time: Edge

3rd game in 4 nights

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 47.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.8% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 47.7%
Baseline: 50.8%
Sample: 2,021 team-games
Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 2,021 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	47.7%	50.8%	−3.1 pp	2,021	Teams won 47.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.8% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.0	0.4	−1.4	2,021	Average margin −1.0 vs +0.4 in the baseline. Adjusted: −1.5 vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 6 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	44.3%	45.5%	−1.2 pp	13,556	Players reached 15+ pts in 44.3% of games, vs 45.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	25.0%	26.1%	−1.0 pp	13,556	Players reached 20+ pts in 25.0% of games, vs 26.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.3%	26.7%	−1.4 pp	13,556	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.3% of games, vs 26.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.5%	13.3%	−0.8 pp	13,556	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.5% of games, vs 13.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.3%	9.1%	−0.8 pp	13,556	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.3% of games, vs 9.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.7	14.9	−0.2	13,556	Players averaged 14.7 pts, vs 14.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	114.8	113.8	+1.0	2,021	Teams allowed 114.8 points a game, vs 113.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 8 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.7%	26.6%	+0.1 pp	13,556	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.7% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.9%	22.4%	−0.5 pp	13,556	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.9% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	27.3%	28.0%	−0.7 pp	13,556	Players reached 5+ ast in 27.3% of games, vs 28.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.8%	12.3%	−0.5 pp	13,556	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.8% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.6%	46.9%	−0.4 pp	13,556	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.6% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.4%	8.8%	−0.4 pp	13,556	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.4% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.7	114.2	−0.4	2,021	Teams scored 113.7 points a game, vs 114.2. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	228.5	228.0	+0.6	2,021	Teams averaged 228.5 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 8+ ast in 6.3% of games, vs 9.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 6.3%
Baseline: 9.1%
Sample: 573 player-games
Adjusted: −2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 573 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	6.3%	9.1%	−2.8 pp	573	Players reached 8+ ast in 6.3% of games, vs 9.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 11 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	44.7%	48.7%	−4.0 pp	573	Players reached 2+ threes in 44.7% of games, vs 48.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	23.4%	27.5%	−4.1 pp	573	Players reached 3+ threes in 23.4% of games, vs 27.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	22.3%	26.6%	−4.3 pp	573	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 22.3% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	22.9%	25.5%	−2.6 pp	573	Players reached 20+ pts in 22.9% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	23.9%	26.4%	−2.5 pp	573	Players reached 5+ ast in 23.9% of games, vs 26.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	22.2%	20.8%	+1.3 pp	573	Players reached 8+ reb in 22.2% of games, vs 20.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	40.8%	43.5%	−2.7 pp	573	Players reached 15+ pts in 40.8% of games, vs 43.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	10.3%	11.1%	−0.8 pp	573	Players reached 10+ reb in 10.3% of games, vs 11.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	10.6%	11.8%	−1.1 pp	573	Players reached 25+ pts in 10.6% of games, vs 11.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	6.3%	7.0%	−0.7 pp	573	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 6.3% of games, vs 7.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.0	14.5	−0.5	573	Players averaged 14.0 pts, vs 14.5. Not a clear difference.

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	84	Too small to publish in this window: n=84 from 67 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	84	Too small to publish in this window: n=84 from 67 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	84	Too small to publish in this window: n=84 from 67 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	84	Too small to publish in this window: n=84 from 67 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	84	Too small to publish in this window: n=84 from 67 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Average margin −1.2 vs +0.4 in the baseline. Adjusted: −1.7 vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: -1.2
Baseline: 0.4
Sample: 662 team-games
Adjusted: −1.7 vs expectation for team strength

See all 662 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Avg margin: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.2	0.4	−1.7	662	Average margin −1.2 vs +0.4 in the baseline. Adjusted: −1.7 vs expectation for team strength.

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	116.6	114.6	+2.0	662	Teams allowed 116.6 points a game, vs 114.6. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 15 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	47.3%	51.0%	−3.7 pp	662	Teams won 47.3% of games in this spot, vs 51.0% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	27.2%	25.6%	+1.6 pp	4,523	Players reached 3+ threes in 27.2% of games, vs 25.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.4%	45.9%	+0.5 pp	4,523	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.4% of games, vs 45.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.5%	24.9%	−0.4 pp	4,523	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.5% of games, vs 24.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	24.2%	24.9%	−0.7 pp	4,523	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.2% of games, vs 24.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.7%	26.7%	−0.1 pp	4,523	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.7% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.2%	12.4%	−0.2 pp	4,523	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.2% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.9%	45.2%	−1.3 pp	4,523	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.9% of games, vs 45.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	7.6%	8.3%	−0.6 pp	4,523	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.6% of games, vs 8.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	7.7%	8.3%	−0.6 pp	4,523	Players reached 8+ ast in 7.7% of games, vs 8.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	20.3%	21.6%	−1.3 pp	4,523	Players reached 8+ reb in 20.3% of games, vs 21.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	10.3%	11.1%	−0.8 pp	4,523	Players reached 10+ reb in 10.3% of games, vs 11.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.5	14.7	−0.1	4,523	Players averaged 14.5 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	115.3	115.0	+0.3	662	Teams scored 115.3 points a game, vs 115.0. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	231.9	229.5	+2.3	662	Teams averaged 231.9 game total, vs 229.5. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 47.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.8% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 47.7%
Baseline: 50.8%
Sample: 2,021 team-games
Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 2,021 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	47.7%	50.8%	−3.1 pp	2,021	Teams won 47.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.8% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.0	0.4	−1.4	2,021	Average margin −1.0 vs +0.4 in the baseline. Adjusted: −1.5 vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 6 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	44.3%	45.5%	−1.2 pp	13,556	Players reached 15+ pts in 44.3% of games, vs 45.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	25.0%	26.1%	−1.0 pp	13,556	Players reached 20+ pts in 25.0% of games, vs 26.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.3%	26.7%	−1.4 pp	13,556	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.3% of games, vs 26.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.5%	13.3%	−0.8 pp	13,556	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.5% of games, vs 13.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.3%	9.1%	−0.8 pp	13,556	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.3% of games, vs 9.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.7	14.9	−0.2	13,556	Players averaged 14.7 pts, vs 14.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	114.8	113.8	+1.0	2,021	Teams allowed 114.8 points a game, vs 113.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 8 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.7%	26.6%	+0.1 pp	13,556	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.7% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.9%	22.4%	−0.5 pp	13,556	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.9% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	27.3%	28.0%	−0.7 pp	13,556	Players reached 5+ ast in 27.3% of games, vs 28.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.8%	12.3%	−0.5 pp	13,556	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.8% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.6%	46.9%	−0.4 pp	13,556	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.6% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.4%	8.8%	−0.4 pp	13,556	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.4% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.7	114.2	−0.4	2,021	Teams scored 113.7 points a game, vs 114.2. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	228.5	228.0	+0.6	2,021	Teams averaged 228.5 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 47.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.8% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 47.7%
Baseline: 50.8%
Sample: 2,021 team-games
Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 2,021 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	47.7%	50.8%	−3.1 pp	2,021	Teams won 47.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.8% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.0	0.4	−1.4	2,021	Average margin −1.0 vs +0.4 in the baseline. Adjusted: −1.5 vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 6 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	44.3%	45.5%	−1.2 pp	13,556	Players reached 15+ pts in 44.3% of games, vs 45.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	25.0%	26.1%	−1.0 pp	13,556	Players reached 20+ pts in 25.0% of games, vs 26.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.3%	26.7%	−1.4 pp	13,556	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.3% of games, vs 26.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.5%	13.3%	−0.8 pp	13,556	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.5% of games, vs 13.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.3%	9.1%	−0.8 pp	13,556	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.3% of games, vs 9.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.7	14.9	−0.2	13,556	Players averaged 14.7 pts, vs 14.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	114.8	113.8	+1.0	2,021	Teams allowed 114.8 points a game, vs 113.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 8 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.7%	26.6%	+0.1 pp	13,556	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.7% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.9%	22.4%	−0.5 pp	13,556	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.9% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	27.3%	28.0%	−0.7 pp	13,556	Players reached 5+ ast in 27.3% of games, vs 28.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.8%	12.3%	−0.5 pp	13,556	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.8% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.6%	46.9%	−0.4 pp	13,556	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.6% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.4%	8.8%	−0.4 pp	13,556	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.4% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.7	114.2	−0.4	2,021	Teams scored 113.7 points a game, vs 114.2. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	228.5	228.0	+0.6	2,021	Teams averaged 228.5 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 47.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.8% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 47.7%
Baseline: 50.8%
Sample: 2,021 team-games
Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 2,021 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	47.7%	50.8%	−3.1 pp	2,021	Teams won 47.7% of games in this spot, vs 50.8% in the baseline. Adjusted: −3.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	-1.0	0.4	−1.4	2,021	Average margin −1.0 vs +0.4 in the baseline. Adjusted: −1.5 vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 6 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	44.3%	45.5%	−1.2 pp	13,556	Players reached 15+ pts in 44.3% of games, vs 45.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	25.0%	26.1%	−1.0 pp	13,556	Players reached 20+ pts in 25.0% of games, vs 26.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.3%	26.7%	−1.4 pp	13,556	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.3% of games, vs 26.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	12.5%	13.3%	−0.8 pp	13,556	Players reached 25+ pts in 12.5% of games, vs 13.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.3%	9.1%	−0.8 pp	13,556	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.3% of games, vs 9.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.7	14.9	−0.2	13,556	Players averaged 14.7 pts, vs 14.9. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	114.8	113.8	+1.0	2,021	Teams allowed 114.8 points a game, vs 113.8. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 8 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.7%	26.6%	+0.1 pp	13,556	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.7% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	21.9%	22.4%	−0.5 pp	13,556	Players reached 8+ reb in 21.9% of games, vs 22.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	27.3%	28.0%	−0.7 pp	13,556	Players reached 5+ ast in 27.3% of games, vs 28.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.8%	12.3%	−0.5 pp	13,556	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.8% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.6%	46.9%	−0.4 pp	13,556	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.6% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.4%	8.8%	−0.4 pp	13,556	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.4% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	113.7	114.2	−0.4	2,021	Teams scored 113.7 points a game, vs 114.2. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	228.5	228.0	+0.6	2,021	Teams averaged 228.5 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: This game is the 3rd within a 4-day span
Baseline: Other team-games
All-time seasons: 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.