NBA · All time: Myth checked
Rubber match (3rd meeting, series 1-1)
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Games averaged 226.3 combined points, vs 228.8. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 226.3
- Baseline
- 228.8
- Sample
- 262 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 262 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 226.3 | 228.8 | −2.5 | 262 | Games averaged 226.3 combined points, vs 228.8. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 45.3% | 46.9% | −1.6 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 2+ threes in 45.3% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 24.6% | 25.5% | −0.9 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 20+ pts in 24.6% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 11.7% | 12.7% | −0.9 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 25+ pts in 11.7% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.7% | 28.6% | −0.9 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.7% of games, vs 28.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 53.1% | 55.9% | −2.9 pp | 262 | Home teams won 53.1%, vs 55.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 44.6% | 45.3% | −0.7 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 15+ pts in 44.6% of games, vs 45.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 25.8% | 26.6% | −0.8 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 3+ threes in 25.8% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.0% | 22.2% | −0.2 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.0% of games, vs 22.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 25.6% | 26.0% | −0.3 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.6% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.6% | 8.8% | −0.2 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.6% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 6.1% | 5.0% | +1.1 pp | 262 | 6.1% of games went to overtime, vs 5.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.3% | 12.1% | +0.1 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.3% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.6% | 8.5% | +0.0 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.6% of games, vs 8.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.6 | 14.7 | −0.1 | 3,517 | Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
- Sample in this window
- 0 games
- Floor to publish
- 200+ games
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 15+ pts in 43.0% of games, vs 45.1%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 43.0%
- Baseline
- 45.1%
- Sample
- 1,292 player-games
- Adjusted
- −3.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 1,292 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 43.0% | 45.1% | −2.1 pp | 1,292 | Players reached 15+ pts in 43.0% of games, vs 45.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 20.0% | 21.0% | −0.9 pp | 1,292 | Players reached 8+ reb in 20.0% of games, vs 21.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 44.4% | 45.4% | −1.0 pp | 1,292 | Players reached 2+ threes in 44.4% of games, vs 45.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 23.5% | 23.9% | −0.5 pp | 1,292 | Players reached 20+ pts in 23.5% of games, vs 23.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 23.4% | 23.5% | −0.1 pp | 1,292 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 23.4% of games, vs 23.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 25.3% | 25.9% | −0.6 pp | 1,292 | Players reached 3+ threes in 25.3% of games, vs 25.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 26.7% | 27.4% | −0.7 pp | 1,292 | Players reached 5+ ast in 26.7% of games, vs 27.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 10.4% | 11.0% | −0.6 pp | 1,292 | Players reached 10+ reb in 10.4% of games, vs 11.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 10.9% | 11.1% | −0.2 pp | 1,292 | Players reached 25+ pts in 10.9% of games, vs 11.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.4% | 8.5% | −0.0 pp | 1,292 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.4% of games, vs 8.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 7.8% | 7.2% | +0.6 pp | 1,292 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.8% of games, vs 7.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.3 | 14.5 | −0.2 | 1,292 | Players averaged 14.3 pts, vs 14.5. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 3 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | – | – | – | 94 | Too small to publish in this window: n=94 from 94 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | – | – | – | 94 | Too small to publish in this window: n=94 from 94 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | – | – | – | 94 | Too small to publish in this window: n=94 from 94 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Games averaged 226.3 combined points, vs 228.8. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 226.3
- Baseline
- 228.8
- Sample
- 262 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 262 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 226.3 | 228.8 | −2.5 | 262 | Games averaged 226.3 combined points, vs 228.8. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 45.3% | 46.9% | −1.6 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 2+ threes in 45.3% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 24.6% | 25.5% | −0.9 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 20+ pts in 24.6% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 11.7% | 12.7% | −0.9 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 25+ pts in 11.7% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.7% | 28.6% | −0.9 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.7% of games, vs 28.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 53.1% | 55.9% | −2.9 pp | 262 | Home teams won 53.1%, vs 55.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 44.6% | 45.3% | −0.7 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 15+ pts in 44.6% of games, vs 45.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 25.8% | 26.6% | −0.8 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 3+ threes in 25.8% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.0% | 22.2% | −0.2 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.0% of games, vs 22.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 25.6% | 26.0% | −0.3 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.6% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.6% | 8.8% | −0.2 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.6% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 6.1% | 5.0% | +1.1 pp | 262 | 6.1% of games went to overtime, vs 5.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.3% | 12.1% | +0.1 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.3% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.6% | 8.5% | +0.0 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.6% of games, vs 8.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.6 | 14.7 | −0.1 | 3,517 | Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Games averaged 226.3 combined points, vs 228.8. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 226.3
- Baseline
- 228.8
- Sample
- 262 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 262 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 226.3 | 228.8 | −2.5 | 262 | Games averaged 226.3 combined points, vs 228.8. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 45.3% | 46.9% | −1.6 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 2+ threes in 45.3% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 24.6% | 25.5% | −0.9 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 20+ pts in 24.6% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 11.7% | 12.7% | −0.9 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 25+ pts in 11.7% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.7% | 28.6% | −0.9 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.7% of games, vs 28.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 53.1% | 55.9% | −2.9 pp | 262 | Home teams won 53.1%, vs 55.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 44.6% | 45.3% | −0.7 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 15+ pts in 44.6% of games, vs 45.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 25.8% | 26.6% | −0.8 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 3+ threes in 25.8% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.0% | 22.2% | −0.2 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.0% of games, vs 22.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 25.6% | 26.0% | −0.3 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.6% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.6% | 8.8% | −0.2 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.6% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 6.1% | 5.0% | +1.1 pp | 262 | 6.1% of games went to overtime, vs 5.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.3% | 12.1% | +0.1 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.3% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.6% | 8.5% | +0.0 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.6% of games, vs 8.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.6 | 14.7 | −0.1 | 3,517 | Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Games averaged 226.3 combined points, vs 228.8. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 226.3
- Baseline
- 228.8
- Sample
- 262 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 262 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 15 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 226.3 | 228.8 | −2.5 | 262 | Games averaged 226.3 combined points, vs 228.8. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 45.3% | 46.9% | −1.6 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 2+ threes in 45.3% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 24.6% | 25.5% | −0.9 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 20+ pts in 24.6% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 11.7% | 12.7% | −0.9 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 25+ pts in 11.7% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.7% | 28.6% | −0.9 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.7% of games, vs 28.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 53.1% | 55.9% | −2.9 pp | 262 | Home teams won 53.1%, vs 55.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 44.6% | 45.3% | −0.7 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 15+ pts in 44.6% of games, vs 45.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 25.8% | 26.6% | −0.8 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 3+ threes in 25.8% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.0% | 22.2% | −0.2 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.0% of games, vs 22.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 25.6% | 26.0% | −0.3 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.6% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.6% | 8.8% | −0.2 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.6% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 6.1% | 5.0% | +1.1 pp | 262 | 6.1% of games went to overtime, vs 5.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.3% | 12.1% | +0.1 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.3% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.6% | 8.5% | +0.0 pp | 3,517 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.6% of games, vs 8.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.6 | 14.7 | −0.1 | 3,517 | Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.2 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Regular season, 3rd meeting of the season with the season series tied 1-1
- Baseline
- Other 3rd+ regular-season meetings
- All-time seasons
- 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.