NBA · All time: Edge

Rest 2+ days

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 52.1% of games in this spot, vs 49.5% in the baseline. Adjusted: +2.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 52.1%
Baseline: 49.5%
Sample: 1,659 team-games
Adjusted: +2.4 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,659 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	52.1%	49.5%	+2.6 pp	1,659	Teams won 52.1% of games in this spot, vs 49.5% in the baseline. Adjusted: +2.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	0.7	-0.2	+0.9	1,659	Average margin +0.7 vs −0.2 in the baseline. Adjusted: +0.8 vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 7 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	27.4%	26.1%	+1.3 pp	10,936	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 27.4% of games, vs 26.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	26.8%	25.6%	+1.3 pp	10,936	Players reached 20+ pts in 26.8% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	46.4%	44.9%	+1.6 pp	10,936	Players reached 15+ pts in 46.4% of games, vs 44.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	13.9%	12.9%	+0.9 pp	10,936	Players reached 25+ pts in 13.9% of games, vs 12.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	9.5%	8.8%	+0.8 pp	10,936	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.5% of games, vs 8.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	9.2%	8.6%	+0.6 pp	10,936	Players reached 8+ ast in 9.2% of games, vs 8.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	15.0	14.8	+0.2	10,936	Players averaged 15.0 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 8 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	28.0%	27.8%	+0.2 pp	10,936	Players reached 5+ ast in 28.0% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.4%	26.7%	−0.3 pp	10,936	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.4% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	12.4%	12.1%	+0.3 pp	10,936	Players reached 10+ reb in 12.4% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	47.3%	46.7%	+0.6 pp	10,936	Players reached 2+ threes in 47.3% of games, vs 46.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	22.9%	22.1%	+0.8 pp	10,936	Players reached 8+ reb in 22.9% of games, vs 22.1%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	114.2	114.0	+0.1	1,659	Teams scored 114.2 points a game, vs 114.0. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	113.4	114.2	−0.8	1,659	Teams allowed 113.4 points a game, vs 114.2. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	227.6	228.2	−0.6	1,659	Teams averaged 227.6 game total, vs 228.2. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 2+ threes in 49.9% of games, vs 47.1%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 49.9%
Baseline: 47.1%
Sample: 337 player-games
Adjusted: +4.0 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 337 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 12 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	49.9%	47.1%	+2.8 pp	337	Players reached 2+ threes in 49.9% of games, vs 47.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	19.0%	21.6%	−2.6 pp	337	Players reached 8+ reb in 19.0% of games, vs 21.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	23.1%	25.9%	−2.7 pp	337	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 23.1% of games, vs 25.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.0%	24.9%	−0.8 pp	337	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.0% of games, vs 24.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	10.7%	10.9%	−0.2 pp	337	Players reached 10+ reb in 10.7% of games, vs 10.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.0%	42.7%	+0.3 pp	337	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.0% of games, vs 42.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	9.2%	8.1%	+1.1 pp	337	Players reached 8+ ast in 9.2% of games, vs 8.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	27.0%	26.2%	+0.8 pp	337	Players reached 3+ threes in 27.0% of games, vs 26.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	6.8%	6.8%	+0.0 pp	337	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 6.8% of games, vs 6.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.1%	25.6%	+0.5 pp	337	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.1% of games, vs 25.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	11.0%	11.5%	−0.6 pp	337	Players reached 25+ pts in 11.0% of games, vs 11.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.1	14.4	−0.3	337	Players averaged 14.1 pts, vs 14.4. Not a clear difference.

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	51	Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 46 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	51	Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 46 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	51	Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 46 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	51	Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 46 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	51	Too small to publish in this window: n=51 from 46 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 8+ ast in 9.0% of games, vs 7.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 9.0%
Baseline: 7.9%
Sample: 3,594 player-games
Adjusted: +0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 3,594 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 2 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	9.0%	7.9%	+1.1 pp	3,594	Players reached 8+ ast in 9.0% of games, vs 7.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	13.5%	12.0%	+1.5 pp	3,594	Players reached 25+ pts in 13.5% of games, vs 12.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 15 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	51.8%	49.6%	+2.2 pp	537	Teams won 51.8% of games in this spot, vs 49.6% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	25.2%	26.2%	−0.9 pp	3,594	Players reached 3+ threes in 25.2% of games, vs 26.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	45.7%	44.7%	+1.0 pp	3,594	Players reached 15+ pts in 45.7% of games, vs 44.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.8%	26.7%	+0.2 pp	3,594	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.8% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	25.3%	24.6%	+0.6 pp	3,594	Players reached 20+ pts in 25.3% of games, vs 24.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	45.7%	46.1%	−0.4 pp	3,594	Players reached 2+ threes in 45.7% of games, vs 46.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	11.0%	10.9%	+0.1 pp	3,594	Players reached 10+ reb in 11.0% of games, vs 10.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	8.9%	7.9%	+1.0 pp	3,594	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.9% of games, vs 7.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	26.2%	24.4%	+1.8 pp	3,594	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.2% of games, vs 24.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	22.0%	21.1%	+0.9 pp	3,594	Players reached 8+ reb in 22.0% of games, vs 21.1%. Not a clear difference.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	0.6	-0.1	+0.7	537	Average margin +0.6 vs −0.1 in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.8	14.6	+0.2	3,594	Players averaged 14.8 pts, vs 14.6. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	115.0	115.1	−0.0	537	Teams scored 115.0 points a game, vs 115.1. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	114.5	115.2	−0.8	537	Teams allowed 114.5 points a game, vs 115.2. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	229.5	230.3	−0.8	537	Teams averaged 229.5 game total, vs 230.3. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 52.1% of games in this spot, vs 49.5% in the baseline. Adjusted: +2.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 52.1%
Baseline: 49.5%
Sample: 1,659 team-games
Adjusted: +2.4 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,659 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	52.1%	49.5%	+2.6 pp	1,659	Teams won 52.1% of games in this spot, vs 49.5% in the baseline. Adjusted: +2.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	0.7	-0.2	+0.9	1,659	Average margin +0.7 vs −0.2 in the baseline. Adjusted: +0.8 vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 7 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	27.4%	26.1%	+1.3 pp	10,936	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 27.4% of games, vs 26.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	26.8%	25.6%	+1.3 pp	10,936	Players reached 20+ pts in 26.8% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	46.4%	44.9%	+1.6 pp	10,936	Players reached 15+ pts in 46.4% of games, vs 44.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	13.9%	12.9%	+0.9 pp	10,936	Players reached 25+ pts in 13.9% of games, vs 12.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	9.5%	8.8%	+0.8 pp	10,936	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.5% of games, vs 8.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	9.2%	8.6%	+0.6 pp	10,936	Players reached 8+ ast in 9.2% of games, vs 8.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	15.0	14.8	+0.2	10,936	Players averaged 15.0 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 8 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	28.0%	27.8%	+0.2 pp	10,936	Players reached 5+ ast in 28.0% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.4%	26.7%	−0.3 pp	10,936	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.4% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	12.4%	12.1%	+0.3 pp	10,936	Players reached 10+ reb in 12.4% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	47.3%	46.7%	+0.6 pp	10,936	Players reached 2+ threes in 47.3% of games, vs 46.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	22.9%	22.1%	+0.8 pp	10,936	Players reached 8+ reb in 22.9% of games, vs 22.1%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	114.2	114.0	+0.1	1,659	Teams scored 114.2 points a game, vs 114.0. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	113.4	114.2	−0.8	1,659	Teams allowed 113.4 points a game, vs 114.2. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	227.6	228.2	−0.6	1,659	Teams averaged 227.6 game total, vs 228.2. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 52.1% of games in this spot, vs 49.5% in the baseline. Adjusted: +2.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 52.1%
Baseline: 49.5%
Sample: 1,659 team-games
Adjusted: +2.4 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,659 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	52.1%	49.5%	+2.6 pp	1,659	Teams won 52.1% of games in this spot, vs 49.5% in the baseline. Adjusted: +2.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	0.7	-0.2	+0.9	1,659	Average margin +0.7 vs −0.2 in the baseline. Adjusted: +0.8 vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 7 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	27.4%	26.1%	+1.3 pp	10,936	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 27.4% of games, vs 26.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	26.8%	25.6%	+1.3 pp	10,936	Players reached 20+ pts in 26.8% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	46.4%	44.9%	+1.6 pp	10,936	Players reached 15+ pts in 46.4% of games, vs 44.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	13.9%	12.9%	+0.9 pp	10,936	Players reached 25+ pts in 13.9% of games, vs 12.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	9.5%	8.8%	+0.8 pp	10,936	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.5% of games, vs 8.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	9.2%	8.6%	+0.6 pp	10,936	Players reached 8+ ast in 9.2% of games, vs 8.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	15.0	14.8	+0.2	10,936	Players averaged 15.0 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 8 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	28.0%	27.8%	+0.2 pp	10,936	Players reached 5+ ast in 28.0% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.4%	26.7%	−0.3 pp	10,936	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.4% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	12.4%	12.1%	+0.3 pp	10,936	Players reached 10+ reb in 12.4% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	47.3%	46.7%	+0.6 pp	10,936	Players reached 2+ threes in 47.3% of games, vs 46.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	22.9%	22.1%	+0.8 pp	10,936	Players reached 8+ reb in 22.9% of games, vs 22.1%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	114.2	114.0	+0.1	1,659	Teams scored 114.2 points a game, vs 114.0. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	113.4	114.2	−0.8	1,659	Teams allowed 113.4 points a game, vs 114.2. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	227.6	228.2	−0.6	1,659	Teams averaged 227.6 game total, vs 228.2. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 52.1% of games in this spot, vs 49.5% in the baseline. Adjusted: +2.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 52.1%
Baseline: 49.5%
Sample: 1,659 team-games
Adjusted: +2.4 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 1,659 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	52.1%	49.5%	+2.6 pp	1,659	Teams won 52.1% of games in this spot, vs 49.5% in the baseline. Adjusted: +2.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	0.7	-0.2	+0.9	1,659	Average margin +0.7 vs −0.2 in the baseline. Adjusted: +0.8 vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 7 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	27.4%	26.1%	+1.3 pp	10,936	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 27.4% of games, vs 26.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	26.8%	25.6%	+1.3 pp	10,936	Players reached 20+ pts in 26.8% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	46.4%	44.9%	+1.6 pp	10,936	Players reached 15+ pts in 46.4% of games, vs 44.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	13.9%	12.9%	+0.9 pp	10,936	Players reached 25+ pts in 13.9% of games, vs 12.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	9.5%	8.8%	+0.8 pp	10,936	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.5% of games, vs 8.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	9.2%	8.6%	+0.6 pp	10,936	Players reached 8+ ast in 9.2% of games, vs 8.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	15.0	14.8	+0.2	10,936	Players averaged 15.0 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.2 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 8 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	28.0%	27.8%	+0.2 pp	10,936	Players reached 5+ ast in 28.0% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.4%	26.7%	−0.3 pp	10,936	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.4% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	12.4%	12.1%	+0.3 pp	10,936	Players reached 10+ reb in 12.4% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	47.3%	46.7%	+0.6 pp	10,936	Players reached 2+ threes in 47.3% of games, vs 46.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	22.9%	22.1%	+0.8 pp	10,936	Players reached 8+ reb in 22.9% of games, vs 22.1%. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	114.2	114.0	+0.1	1,659	Teams scored 114.2 points a game, vs 114.0. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	113.4	114.2	−0.8	1,659	Teams allowed 113.4 points a game, vs 114.2. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	227.6	228.2	−0.6	1,659	Teams averaged 227.6 game total, vs 228.2. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: 2+ full days off since previous game
Baseline: Team-games with 0-1 days rest
All-time seasons: 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.