NBA · All time: Edge
Playoffs (any round)
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Games averaged 214.9 combined points, vs 229.0. A scoring average, not an over/under record.
- In the spot
- 214.9
- Baseline
- 229.0
- Sample
- 247 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 247 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 214.9 | 229.0 | −14.1 | 247 | Games averaged 214.9 combined points, vs 229.0. A scoring average, not an over/under record. |
Explained by quality 8 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 29.1% | 26.2% | +2.9 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 29.1% of games, vs 26.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 47.8% | 45.1% | +2.7 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 15+ pts in 47.8% of games, vs 45.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 28.6% | 25.6% | +3.0 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 20+ pts in 28.6% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 14.8% | 13.0% | +1.8 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 25+ pts in 14.8% of games, vs 13.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 11.4% | 8.8% | +2.6 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 11.4% of games, vs 8.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 13.4% | 12.1% | +1.3 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 10+ reb in 13.4% of games, vs 12.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 25.8% | 22.0% | +3.7 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 8+ reb in 25.8% of games, vs 22.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.3 | 14.8 | +0.5 | 3,032 | Players averaged 15.3 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.8 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 6 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.7% | 27.8% | −0.1 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.7% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.1% | 8.7% | −0.7 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.1% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 25.8% | 26.6% | −0.9 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 3+ threes in 25.8% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 46.9% | 46.8% | +0.1 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 2+ threes in 46.9% of games, vs 46.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 57.1% | 54.5% | +2.5 pp | 247 | Home teams won 57.1%, vs 54.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 4.9% | 4.7% | +0.2 pp | 247 | 4.9% of games went to overtime, vs 4.7%. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0).
- Sample in this window
- 0 games
- Floor to publish
- 200+ games
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | – | – | – | 0 | No games in this spot in this window yet (n=0). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Explained by quality
Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 15+ pts in 48.6% of games, vs 44.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
- In the spot
- 48.6%
- Baseline
- 44.7%
- Sample
- 1,007 player-games
- Adjusted
- −3.6 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 1,007 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Explained by quality 2 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 48.6% | 44.7% | +3.8 pp | 1,007 | Players reached 15+ pts in 48.6% of games, vs 44.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.6 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 24.9% | 21.1% | +3.8 pp | 1,007 | Players reached 8+ reb in 24.9% of games, vs 21.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 10 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.7% | 24.7% | +2.1 pp | 1,007 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.7% of games, vs 24.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.7% | 24.7% | +1.0 pp | 1,007 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.7% of games, vs 24.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 26.7% | 26.7% | +0.0 pp | 1,007 | Players reached 5+ ast in 26.7% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 12.8% | 12.3% | +0.5 pp | 1,007 | Players reached 25+ pts in 12.8% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 7.0% | 8.2% | −1.3 pp | 1,007 | Players reached 8+ ast in 7.0% of games, vs 8.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 9.4% | 8.1% | +1.4 pp | 1,007 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.4% of games, vs 8.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 25.7% | 26.0% | −0.2 pp | 1,007 | Players reached 3+ threes in 25.7% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 46.1% | 45.9% | +0.1 pp | 1,007 | Players reached 2+ threes in 46.1% of games, vs 45.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.7% | 10.8% | +1.9 pp | 1,007 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.7% of games, vs 10.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.0 | 14.6 | +0.3 | 1,007 | Players averaged 15.0 pts, vs 14.6. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 3 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | – | – | – | 81 | Too small to publish in this window: n=81 from 81 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | – | – | – | 81 | Too small to publish in this window: n=81 from 81 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | – | – | – | 81 | Too small to publish in this window: n=81 from 81 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Games averaged 214.9 combined points, vs 229.0. A scoring average, not an over/under record.
- In the spot
- 214.9
- Baseline
- 229.0
- Sample
- 247 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 247 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 214.9 | 229.0 | −14.1 | 247 | Games averaged 214.9 combined points, vs 229.0. A scoring average, not an over/under record. |
Explained by quality 8 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 29.1% | 26.2% | +2.9 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 29.1% of games, vs 26.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 47.8% | 45.1% | +2.7 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 15+ pts in 47.8% of games, vs 45.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 28.6% | 25.6% | +3.0 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 20+ pts in 28.6% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 14.8% | 13.0% | +1.8 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 25+ pts in 14.8% of games, vs 13.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 11.4% | 8.8% | +2.6 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 11.4% of games, vs 8.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 13.4% | 12.1% | +1.3 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 10+ reb in 13.4% of games, vs 12.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 25.8% | 22.0% | +3.7 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 8+ reb in 25.8% of games, vs 22.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.3 | 14.8 | +0.5 | 3,032 | Players averaged 15.3 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.8 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 6 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.7% | 27.8% | −0.1 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.7% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.1% | 8.7% | −0.7 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.1% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 25.8% | 26.6% | −0.9 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 3+ threes in 25.8% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 46.9% | 46.8% | +0.1 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 2+ threes in 46.9% of games, vs 46.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 57.1% | 54.5% | +2.5 pp | 247 | Home teams won 57.1%, vs 54.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 4.9% | 4.7% | +0.2 pp | 247 | 4.9% of games went to overtime, vs 4.7%. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Games averaged 214.9 combined points, vs 229.0. A scoring average, not an over/under record.
- In the spot
- 214.9
- Baseline
- 229.0
- Sample
- 247 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 247 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 214.9 | 229.0 | −14.1 | 247 | Games averaged 214.9 combined points, vs 229.0. A scoring average, not an over/under record. |
Explained by quality 8 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 29.1% | 26.2% | +2.9 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 29.1% of games, vs 26.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 47.8% | 45.1% | +2.7 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 15+ pts in 47.8% of games, vs 45.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 28.6% | 25.6% | +3.0 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 20+ pts in 28.6% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 14.8% | 13.0% | +1.8 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 25+ pts in 14.8% of games, vs 13.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 11.4% | 8.8% | +2.6 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 11.4% of games, vs 8.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 13.4% | 12.1% | +1.3 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 10+ reb in 13.4% of games, vs 12.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 25.8% | 22.0% | +3.7 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 8+ reb in 25.8% of games, vs 22.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.3 | 14.8 | +0.5 | 3,032 | Players averaged 15.3 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.8 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 6 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.7% | 27.8% | −0.1 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.7% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.1% | 8.7% | −0.7 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.1% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 25.8% | 26.6% | −0.9 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 3+ threes in 25.8% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 46.9% | 46.8% | +0.1 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 2+ threes in 46.9% of games, vs 46.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 57.1% | 54.5% | +2.5 pp | 247 | Home teams won 57.1%, vs 54.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 4.9% | 4.7% | +0.2 pp | 247 | 4.9% of games went to overtime, vs 4.7%. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Games averaged 214.9 combined points, vs 229.0. A scoring average, not an over/under record.
- In the spot
- 214.9
- Baseline
- 229.0
- Sample
- 247 games
- Adjusted
- not needed at game level
See all 247 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 214.9 | 229.0 | −14.1 | 247 | Games averaged 214.9 combined points, vs 229.0. A scoring average, not an over/under record. |
Explained by quality 8 measures
A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 29.1% | 26.2% | +2.9 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 29.1% of games, vs 26.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 47.8% | 45.1% | +2.7 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 15+ pts in 47.8% of games, vs 45.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−3.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 28.6% | 25.6% | +3.0 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 20+ pts in 28.6% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.8 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 14.8% | 13.0% | +1.8 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 25+ pts in 14.8% of games, vs 13.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 11.4% | 8.8% | +2.6 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 11.4% of games, vs 8.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.2 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 13.4% | 12.1% | +1.3 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 10+ reb in 13.4% of games, vs 12.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 25.8% | 22.0% | +3.7 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 8+ reb in 25.8% of games, vs 22.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 15.3 | 14.8 | +0.5 | 3,032 | Players averaged 15.3 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.8 vs each player’s own norm). |
Myth checked 6 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.7% | 27.8% | −0.1 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.7% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.1% | 8.7% | −0.7 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.1% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 25.8% | 26.6% | −0.9 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 3+ threes in 25.8% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 46.9% | 46.8% | +0.1 pp | 3,032 | Players reached 2+ threes in 46.9% of games, vs 46.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 57.1% | 54.5% | +2.5 pp | 247 | Home teams won 57.1%, vs 54.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 4.9% | 4.7% | +0.2 pp | 247 | 4.9% of games went to overtime, vs 4.7%. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.2 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Cached ESPN season.type = 3 (NFL/NBA) or NHL gameType = 3. Every NFL playoff game is an elimination game
- Baseline
- Regular-season games of the same stored seasons
- All-time seasons
- 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.