NBA · All time: Myth checked
First home game after a 3+ game road trip
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 53.1% of games in this spot, vs 55.0% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 53.1%
- Baseline
- 55.0%
- Sample
- 591 team-games
- Adjusted
- −2.6 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 591 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 17 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 53.1% | 55.0% | −1.9 pp | 591 | Teams won 53.1% of games in this spot, vs 55.0% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.7% | 27.2% | −0.5 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.7% of games, vs 27.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.1% | 28.5% | −0.4 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.1% of games, vs 28.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 46.3% | 46.1% | +0.2 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 15+ pts in 46.3% of games, vs 46.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.2% | 22.8% | −0.6 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.2% of games, vs 22.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 13.3% | 13.2% | +0.0 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 25+ pts in 13.3% of games, vs 13.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.3% | 9.0% | +0.3 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.3% of games, vs 9.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.3% | 12.3% | +0.1 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.3% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 47.9% | 47.5% | +0.4 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 2+ threes in 47.9% of games, vs 47.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 26.7% | 26.3% | +0.4 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 20+ pts in 26.7% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 9.1% | 9.0% | +0.1 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.1% of games, vs 9.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.5% | 27.1% | +0.4 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.5% of games, vs 27.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 1.5 | 2.0 | −0.6 | 591 | Average margin +1.5 vs +2.0 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.9 | 14.9 | +0.0 | 3,931 | Players averaged 14.9 pts, vs 14.9. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 114.9 | 115.0 | −0.1 | 591 | Teams scored 114.9 points a game, vs 115.0. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 113.5 | 113.0 | +0.5 | 591 | Teams allowed 113.5 points a game, vs 113.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 228.4 | 228.0 | +0.3 | 591 | Teams averaged 228.4 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=13 from 13 games (the floor is 200+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 13 team-games
- Floor to publish
- 200+ games
See all 13 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 17 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | – | – | – | 13 | Too small to publish in this window: n=13 from 13 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | – | – | – | 87 | Too small to publish in this window: n=87 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | – | – | – | 87 | Too small to publish in this window: n=87 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | – | – | – | 87 | Too small to publish in this window: n=87 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | – | – | – | 87 | Too small to publish in this window: n=87 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | – | – | – | 87 | Too small to publish in this window: n=87 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | – | – | – | 87 | Too small to publish in this window: n=87 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 87 | Too small to publish in this window: n=87 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 87 | Too small to publish in this window: n=87 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | – | – | – | 87 | Too small to publish in this window: n=87 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | – | – | – | 87 | Too small to publish in this window: n=87 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | – | – | – | 87 | Too small to publish in this window: n=87 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | – | – | – | 87 | Too small to publish in this window: n=87 from 13 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | – | – | – | 13 | Too small to publish in this window: n=13 from 13 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | – | – | – | 13 | Too small to publish in this window: n=13 from 13 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | – | – | – | 13 | Too small to publish in this window: n=13 from 13 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | – | – | – | 13 | Too small to publish in this window: n=13 from 13 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 10+ reb in 12.0% of games, vs 10.4%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 12.0%
- Baseline
- 10.4%
- Sample
- 1,286 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.7 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 1,286 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.0% | 10.4% | +1.6 pp | 1,286 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.0% of games, vs 10.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 24.3% | 25.1% | −0.8 pp | 1,286 | Players reached 20+ pts in 24.3% of games, vs 25.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 24.7% | 25.2% | −0.5 pp | 1,286 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.7% of games, vs 25.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 21.9% | 21.3% | +0.6 pp | 1,286 | Players reached 8+ reb in 21.9% of games, vs 21.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 12.0% | 12.1% | −0.2 pp | 1,286 | Players reached 25+ pts in 12.0% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 26.5% | 26.3% | +0.2 pp | 1,286 | Players reached 3+ threes in 26.5% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.6% | 7.8% | +0.8 pp | 1,286 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.6% of games, vs 7.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 46.7% | 46.6% | +0.2 pp | 1,286 | Players reached 2+ threes in 46.7% of games, vs 46.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 46.3% | 45.5% | +0.8 pp | 1,286 | Players reached 15+ pts in 46.3% of games, vs 45.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.3% | 8.6% | −0.3 pp | 1,286 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.3% of games, vs 8.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.5% | 27.0% | +0.5 pp | 1,286 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.5% of games, vs 27.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.8 | 14.7 | +0.1 | 1,286 | Players averaged 14.8 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | – | – | – | 190 | Too small to publish in this window: n=190 from 190 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | – | – | – | 190 | Too small to publish in this window: n=190 from 190 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | – | – | – | 190 | Too small to publish in this window: n=190 from 190 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | – | – | – | 190 | Too small to publish in this window: n=190 from 190 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | – | – | – | 190 | Too small to publish in this window: n=190 from 190 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 53.1% of games in this spot, vs 55.0% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 53.1%
- Baseline
- 55.0%
- Sample
- 591 team-games
- Adjusted
- −2.6 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 591 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 17 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 53.1% | 55.0% | −1.9 pp | 591 | Teams won 53.1% of games in this spot, vs 55.0% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.7% | 27.2% | −0.5 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.7% of games, vs 27.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.1% | 28.5% | −0.4 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.1% of games, vs 28.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 46.3% | 46.1% | +0.2 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 15+ pts in 46.3% of games, vs 46.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.2% | 22.8% | −0.6 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.2% of games, vs 22.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 13.3% | 13.2% | +0.0 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 25+ pts in 13.3% of games, vs 13.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.3% | 9.0% | +0.3 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.3% of games, vs 9.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.3% | 12.3% | +0.1 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.3% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 47.9% | 47.5% | +0.4 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 2+ threes in 47.9% of games, vs 47.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 26.7% | 26.3% | +0.4 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 20+ pts in 26.7% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 9.1% | 9.0% | +0.1 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.1% of games, vs 9.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.5% | 27.1% | +0.4 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.5% of games, vs 27.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 1.5 | 2.0 | −0.6 | 591 | Average margin +1.5 vs +2.0 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.9 | 14.9 | +0.0 | 3,931 | Players averaged 14.9 pts, vs 14.9. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 114.9 | 115.0 | −0.1 | 591 | Teams scored 114.9 points a game, vs 115.0. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 113.5 | 113.0 | +0.5 | 591 | Teams allowed 113.5 points a game, vs 113.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 228.4 | 228.0 | +0.3 | 591 | Teams averaged 228.4 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 53.1% of games in this spot, vs 55.0% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 53.1%
- Baseline
- 55.0%
- Sample
- 591 team-games
- Adjusted
- −2.6 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 591 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 17 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 53.1% | 55.0% | −1.9 pp | 591 | Teams won 53.1% of games in this spot, vs 55.0% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.7% | 27.2% | −0.5 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.7% of games, vs 27.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.1% | 28.5% | −0.4 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.1% of games, vs 28.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 46.3% | 46.1% | +0.2 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 15+ pts in 46.3% of games, vs 46.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.2% | 22.8% | −0.6 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.2% of games, vs 22.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 13.3% | 13.2% | +0.0 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 25+ pts in 13.3% of games, vs 13.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.3% | 9.0% | +0.3 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.3% of games, vs 9.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.3% | 12.3% | +0.1 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.3% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 47.9% | 47.5% | +0.4 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 2+ threes in 47.9% of games, vs 47.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 26.7% | 26.3% | +0.4 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 20+ pts in 26.7% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 9.1% | 9.0% | +0.1 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.1% of games, vs 9.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.5% | 27.1% | +0.4 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.5% of games, vs 27.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 1.5 | 2.0 | −0.6 | 591 | Average margin +1.5 vs +2.0 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.9 | 14.9 | +0.0 | 3,931 | Players averaged 14.9 pts, vs 14.9. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 114.9 | 115.0 | −0.1 | 591 | Teams scored 114.9 points a game, vs 115.0. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 113.5 | 113.0 | +0.5 | 591 | Teams allowed 113.5 points a game, vs 113.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 228.4 | 228.0 | +0.3 | 591 | Teams averaged 228.4 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Teams won 53.1% of games in this spot, vs 55.0% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 53.1%
- Baseline
- 55.0%
- Sample
- 591 team-games
- Adjusted
- −2.6 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 591 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 17 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 53.1% | 55.0% | −1.9 pp | 591 | Teams won 53.1% of games in this spot, vs 55.0% in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.7% | 27.2% | −0.5 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.7% of games, vs 27.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.1% | 28.5% | −0.4 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.1% of games, vs 28.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 46.3% | 46.1% | +0.2 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 15+ pts in 46.3% of games, vs 46.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.2% | 22.8% | −0.6 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.2% of games, vs 22.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 13.3% | 13.2% | +0.0 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 25+ pts in 13.3% of games, vs 13.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 9.3% | 9.0% | +0.3 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 8+ ast in 9.3% of games, vs 9.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.3% | 12.3% | +0.1 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.3% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 47.9% | 47.5% | +0.4 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 2+ threes in 47.9% of games, vs 47.5%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 26.7% | 26.3% | +0.4 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 20+ pts in 26.7% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 9.1% | 9.0% | +0.1 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.1% of games, vs 9.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.5% | 27.1% | +0.4 pp | 3,931 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.5% of games, vs 27.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | 1.5 | 2.0 | −0.6 | 591 | Average margin +1.5 vs +2.0 in the baseline. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.9 | 14.9 | +0.0 | 3,931 | Players averaged 14.9 pts, vs 14.9. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 114.9 | 115.0 | −0.1 | 591 | Teams scored 114.9 points a game, vs 115.0. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 113.5 | 113.0 | +0.5 | 591 | Teams allowed 113.5 points a game, vs 113.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 228.4 | 228.0 | +0.3 | 591 | Teams averaged 228.4 game total, vs 228.0. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.3 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Home game right after 3+ straight away games
- Baseline
- Other HOME team-games
- All-time seasons
- 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.