Baseline

NBA · All time: Explained by quality

Eastern team playing in Pacific time

Season window

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.3% of games, vs 8.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot
7.3%
Baseline
8.9%
Sample
1,375 player-games
Adjusted
−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 1,375 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

MeasureIn spotBaselineDiff.nWhat it means
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →7.3%8.9%−1.6 pp1,375Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.3% of games, vs 8.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 16 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

MeasureIn spotBaselineDiff.nWhat it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →42.9%45.4%−2.6 pp203Teams won 42.9% of games in this spot, vs 45.4% in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →20.3%21.9%−1.6 pp1,375Players reached 8+ reb in 20.3% of games, vs 21.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →8.8%8.3%+0.5 pp1,375Players reached 8+ ast in 8.8% of games, vs 8.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →11.4%12.0%−0.6 pp1,375Players reached 10+ reb in 11.4% of games, vs 12.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →26.7%26.0%+0.7 pp1,375Players reached 3+ threes in 26.7% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →42.7%44.3%−1.6 pp1,375Players reached 15+ pts in 42.7% of games, vs 44.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →46.0%46.1%−0.1 pp1,375Players reached 2+ threes in 46.0% of games, vs 46.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →23.7%25.3%−1.6 pp1,375Players reached 20+ pts in 23.7% of games, vs 25.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →11.9%13.0%−1.2 pp1,375Players reached 25+ pts in 11.9% of games, vs 13.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →26.2%27.2%−1.0 pp1,375Players reached 5+ ast in 26.2% of games, vs 27.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →24.6%25.7%−1.1 pp1,375Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 24.6% of games, vs 25.7%. Not a clear difference.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →-2.8-1.9−0.9203Average margin −2.8 vs −1.9 in the baseline. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →14.414.7−0.31,375Players averaged 14.4 pts, vs 14.7. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →112.8113.1−0.3203Teams scored 112.8 points a game, vs 113.1. Not a clear difference.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →115.6115.0+0.6203Teams allowed 115.6 points a game, vs 115.0. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →228.5228.1+0.3203Teams averaged 228.5 game total, vs 228.1. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot
Eastern-time team road game at a Pacific-time home team
Baseline
Other domestic road team-games
All-time seasons
2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule
game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp
Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.