NBA · All time: Edge
Day game
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 8+ reb in 23.9% of games, vs 22.1%. Adjusted: +1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 23.9%
- Baseline
- 22.1%
- Sample
- 3,462 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 3,462 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 23.9% | 22.1% | +1.8 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 8+ reb in 23.9% of games, vs 22.1%. Adjusted: +1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 226.1 | 228.3 | −2.2 | 263 | Games averaged 226.1 combined points, vs 228.3. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 58.9% | 54.4% | +4.5 pp | 263 | Home teams won 58.9%, vs 54.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 44.6% | 45.3% | −0.7 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 15+ pts in 44.6% of games, vs 45.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.2% | 25.8% | −0.7 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.2% of games, vs 25.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.9% | 12.1% | +0.8 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.9% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 26.4% | 26.6% | −0.2 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 3+ threes in 26.4% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.5% | 8.9% | −0.4 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.5% of games, vs 8.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.1% | 8.8% | −0.7 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.1% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 12.9% | 13.1% | −0.2 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 25+ pts in 12.9% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.6% | 27.8% | −0.2 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.6% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.2% | 26.4% | −0.2 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.2% of games, vs 26.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 47.3% | 46.8% | +0.6 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 2+ threes in 47.3% of games, vs 46.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 4.9% | 4.7% | +0.3 pp | 263 | 4.9% of games went to overtime, vs 4.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.8 | 14.8 | −0.0 | 3,462 | Players averaged 14.8 pts, vs 14.8. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=5 from 5 games (the floor is 200+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 5 games
- Floor to publish
- 200+ games
See all 5 games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 15 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | – | – | – | 5 | Too small to publish in this window: n=5 from 5 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | – | – | – | 5 | Too small to publish in this window: n=5 from 5 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | – | – | – | 60 | Too small to publish in this window: n=60 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | – | – | – | 60 | Too small to publish in this window: n=60 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | – | – | – | 60 | Too small to publish in this window: n=60 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | – | – | – | 60 | Too small to publish in this window: n=60 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | – | – | – | 60 | Too small to publish in this window: n=60 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | – | – | – | 60 | Too small to publish in this window: n=60 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 60 | Too small to publish in this window: n=60 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 60 | Too small to publish in this window: n=60 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | – | – | – | 5 | Too small to publish in this window: n=5 from 5 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | – | – | – | 60 | Too small to publish in this window: n=60 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | – | – | – | 60 | Too small to publish in this window: n=60 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | – | – | – | 60 | Too small to publish in this window: n=60 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | – | – | – | 60 | Too small to publish in this window: n=60 from 5 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 8+ reb in 22.8% of games, vs 21.2%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 22.8%
- Baseline
- 21.2%
- Sample
- 1,176 player-games
- Adjusted
- +0.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 1,176 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 12 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 22.8% | 21.2% | +1.6 pp | 1,176 | Players reached 8+ reb in 22.8% of games, vs 21.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 7.8% | 8.2% | −0.3 pp | 1,176 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 7.8% of games, vs 8.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 11.8% | 10.9% | +1.0 pp | 1,176 | Players reached 10+ reb in 11.8% of games, vs 10.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.4% | 24.8% | +0.7 pp | 1,176 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.4% of games, vs 24.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 46.9% | 45.9% | +1.0 pp | 1,176 | Players reached 2+ threes in 46.9% of games, vs 45.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 25.8% | 24.7% | +1.1 pp | 1,176 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.8% of games, vs 24.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.8% | 8.1% | +0.8 pp | 1,176 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.8% of games, vs 8.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 13.2% | 12.3% | +0.9 pp | 1,176 | Players reached 25+ pts in 13.2% of games, vs 12.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 46.6% | 44.8% | +1.8 pp | 1,176 | Players reached 15+ pts in 46.6% of games, vs 44.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.6% | 26.6% | +1.0 pp | 1,176 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.6% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 27.6% | 25.8% | +1.7 pp | 1,176 | Players reached 3+ threes in 27.6% of games, vs 25.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.8 | 14.6 | +0.1 | 1,176 | Players averaged 14.8 pts, vs 14.6. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 3 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | – | – | – | 88 | Too small to publish in this window: n=88 from 88 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | – | – | – | 88 | Too small to publish in this window: n=88 from 88 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | – | – | – | 88 | Too small to publish in this window: n=88 from 88 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 8+ reb in 23.9% of games, vs 22.1%. Adjusted: +1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 23.9%
- Baseline
- 22.1%
- Sample
- 3,462 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 3,462 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 23.9% | 22.1% | +1.8 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 8+ reb in 23.9% of games, vs 22.1%. Adjusted: +1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 226.1 | 228.3 | −2.2 | 263 | Games averaged 226.1 combined points, vs 228.3. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 58.9% | 54.4% | +4.5 pp | 263 | Home teams won 58.9%, vs 54.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 44.6% | 45.3% | −0.7 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 15+ pts in 44.6% of games, vs 45.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.2% | 25.8% | −0.7 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.2% of games, vs 25.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.9% | 12.1% | +0.8 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.9% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 26.4% | 26.6% | −0.2 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 3+ threes in 26.4% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.5% | 8.9% | −0.4 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.5% of games, vs 8.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.1% | 8.8% | −0.7 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.1% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 12.9% | 13.1% | −0.2 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 25+ pts in 12.9% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.6% | 27.8% | −0.2 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.6% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.2% | 26.4% | −0.2 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.2% of games, vs 26.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 47.3% | 46.8% | +0.6 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 2+ threes in 47.3% of games, vs 46.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 4.9% | 4.7% | +0.3 pp | 263 | 4.9% of games went to overtime, vs 4.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.8 | 14.8 | −0.0 | 3,462 | Players averaged 14.8 pts, vs 14.8. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 8+ reb in 23.9% of games, vs 22.1%. Adjusted: +1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 23.9%
- Baseline
- 22.1%
- Sample
- 3,462 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 3,462 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 23.9% | 22.1% | +1.8 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 8+ reb in 23.9% of games, vs 22.1%. Adjusted: +1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 226.1 | 228.3 | −2.2 | 263 | Games averaged 226.1 combined points, vs 228.3. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 58.9% | 54.4% | +4.5 pp | 263 | Home teams won 58.9%, vs 54.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 44.6% | 45.3% | −0.7 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 15+ pts in 44.6% of games, vs 45.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.2% | 25.8% | −0.7 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.2% of games, vs 25.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.9% | 12.1% | +0.8 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.9% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 26.4% | 26.6% | −0.2 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 3+ threes in 26.4% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.5% | 8.9% | −0.4 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.5% of games, vs 8.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.1% | 8.8% | −0.7 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.1% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 12.9% | 13.1% | −0.2 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 25+ pts in 12.9% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.6% | 27.8% | −0.2 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.6% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.2% | 26.4% | −0.2 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.2% of games, vs 26.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 47.3% | 46.8% | +0.6 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 2+ threes in 47.3% of games, vs 46.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 4.9% | 4.7% | +0.3 pp | 263 | 4.9% of games went to overtime, vs 4.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.8 | 14.8 | −0.0 | 3,462 | Players averaged 14.8 pts, vs 14.8. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 8+ reb in 23.9% of games, vs 22.1%. Adjusted: +1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 23.9%
- Baseline
- 22.1%
- Sample
- 3,462 player-games
- Adjusted
- +1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 3,462 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 23.9% | 22.1% | +1.8 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 8+ reb in 23.9% of games, vs 22.1%. Adjusted: +1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined pointsSee the games for Avg combined points → | 226.1 | 228.3 | −2.2 | 263 | Games averaged 226.1 combined points, vs 228.3. A scoring average, not an over/under record. Not a clear difference. |
| Home win rateSee the games for Home win rate → | 58.9% | 54.4% | +4.5 pp | 263 | Home teams won 58.9%, vs 54.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 44.6% | 45.3% | −0.7 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 15+ pts in 44.6% of games, vs 45.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.2% | 25.8% | −0.7 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.2% of games, vs 25.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.9% | 12.1% | +0.8 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.9% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 26.4% | 26.6% | −0.2 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 3+ threes in 26.4% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.5% | 8.9% | −0.4 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.5% of games, vs 8.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.1% | 8.8% | −0.7 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.1% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 12.9% | 13.1% | −0.2 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 25+ pts in 12.9% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.6% | 27.8% | −0.2 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.6% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.2% | 26.4% | −0.2 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.2% of games, vs 26.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 47.3% | 46.8% | +0.6 pp | 3,462 | Players reached 2+ threes in 47.3% of games, vs 46.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Overtime rateSee the games for Overtime rate → | 4.9% | 4.7% | +0.3 pp | 263 | 4.9% of games went to overtime, vs 4.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.8 | 14.8 | −0.0 | 3,462 | Players averaged 14.8 pts, vs 14.8. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.2 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- meta.daynight = day (start before 5 PM ET)
- Baseline
- Night games
- All-time seasons
- 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.