NBA · All time: Edge

Bounce-back after missing the line

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 8+ ast in 6.1% of games, vs 37.6%. Adjusted: −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.

In the spot: 6.1%
Baseline: 37.6%
Sample: 49,343 player-games
Adjusted: −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 49,343 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Player 8+ ast: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 8 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	6.1%	37.6%	−31.5 pp	49,343	Players reached 8+ ast in 6.1% of games, vs 37.6%. Adjusted: −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	16.3%	56.5%	−40.2 pp	40,233	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 16.3% of games, vs 56.5%. Adjusted: −2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	17.6%	56.8%	−39.2 pp	39,755	Players reached 5+ ast in 17.6% of games, vs 56.8%. Adjusted: −2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	30.6%	65.3%	−34.7 pp	31,080	Players reached 15+ pts in 30.6% of games, vs 65.3%. Adjusted: −2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	6.1%	39.3%	−33.2 pp	49,132	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 6.1% of games, vs 39.3%. Adjusted: −1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	17.1%	52.8%	−35.8 pp	40,574	Players reached 20+ pts in 17.1% of games, vs 52.8%. Adjusted: −1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	8.2%	43.7%	−35.5 pp	47,863	Players reached 10+ reb in 8.2% of games, vs 43.7%. Adjusted: −1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	15.0%	51.0%	−36.0 pp	42,958	Players reached 8+ reb in 15.0% of games, vs 51.0%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.

Explained by quality 3 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	9.2%	40.4%	−31.2 pp	47,010	Players reached 25+ pts in 9.2% of games, vs 40.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	21.6%	42.2%	−20.6 pp	40,607	Players reached 3+ threes in 21.6% of games, vs 42.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	36.2%	60.8%	−24.5 pp	30,458	Players reached 2+ threes in 36.2% of games, vs 60.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.

Explained by quality

Checked: explained by team or player quality. Players reached 20+ pts in 17.3% of games, vs 49.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+8.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).

In the spot: 17.3%
Baseline: 49.3%
Sample: 1,558 player-games
Adjusted: +8.1 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 1,558 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Explained by quality 11 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	17.3%	49.3%	−32.0 pp	1,558	Players reached 20+ pts in 17.3% of games, vs 49.3%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+8.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	15.0%	47.7%	−32.8 pp	1,651	Players reached 8+ reb in 15.0% of games, vs 47.7%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+8.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	8.3%	37.9%	−29.7 pp	1,823	Players reached 25+ pts in 8.3% of games, vs 37.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+6.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	4.8%	34.5%	−29.7 pp	1,908	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 4.8% of games, vs 34.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+6.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	8.1%	37.5%	−29.4 pp	1,847	Players reached 10+ reb in 8.1% of games, vs 37.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+6.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	6.2%	33.5%	−27.4 pp	1,883	Players reached 8+ ast in 6.2% of games, vs 33.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	16.3%	54.0%	−37.7 pp	1,541	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 16.3% of games, vs 54.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+5.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	27.7%	64.9%	−37.2 pp	1,207	Players reached 15+ pts in 27.7% of games, vs 64.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	20.9%	44.4%	−23.6 pp	1,570	Players reached 3+ threes in 20.9% of games, vs 44.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+3.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	35.9%	63.0%	−27.1 pp	1,164	Players reached 2+ threes in 35.9% of games, vs 63.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+2.9 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	15.0%	58.5%	−43.5 pp	1,541	Players reached 5+ ast in 15.0% of games, vs 58.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+1.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 8+ ast in 5.7% of games, vs 37.3%. Adjusted: −3.6 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.

In the spot: 5.7%
Baseline: 37.3%
Sample: 16,181 player-games
Adjusted: −3.6 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 16,181 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Player 8+ ast: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 7 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	5.7%	37.3%	−31.5 pp	16,181	Players reached 8+ ast in 5.7% of games, vs 37.3%. Adjusted: −3.6 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	15.5%	54.8%	−39.2 pp	13,388	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 15.5% of games, vs 54.8%. Adjusted: −3.0 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	5.6%	38.3%	−32.8 pp	16,143	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 5.6% of games, vs 38.3%. Adjusted: −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	31.0%	64.4%	−33.3 pp	10,197	Players reached 15+ pts in 31.0% of games, vs 64.4%. Adjusted: −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	7.8%	39.7%	−31.9 pp	15,807	Players reached 10+ reb in 7.8% of games, vs 39.7%. Adjusted: −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	17.3%	55.1%	−37.8 pp	13,154	Players reached 5+ ast in 17.3% of games, vs 55.1%. Adjusted: −2.2 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	21.1%	41.7%	−20.6 pp	13,339	Players reached 3+ threes in 21.1% of games, vs 41.7%. Adjusted: −2.0 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.

Explained by quality 4 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	16.9%	50.6%	−33.7 pp	13,421	Players reached 20+ pts in 16.9% of games, vs 50.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	35.7%	60.0%	−24.3 pp	10,067	Players reached 2+ threes in 35.7% of games, vs 60.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.7 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	8.8%	38.9%	−30.1 pp	15,454	Players reached 25+ pts in 8.8% of games, vs 38.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	15.1%	47.5%	−32.4 pp	14,161	Players reached 8+ reb in 15.1% of games, vs 47.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 8+ ast in 6.1% of games, vs 37.6%. Adjusted: −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.

In the spot: 6.1%
Baseline: 37.6%
Sample: 49,343 player-games
Adjusted: −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 49,343 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Player 8+ ast: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 8 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	6.1%	37.6%	−31.5 pp	49,343	Players reached 8+ ast in 6.1% of games, vs 37.6%. Adjusted: −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	16.3%	56.5%	−40.2 pp	40,233	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 16.3% of games, vs 56.5%. Adjusted: −2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	17.6%	56.8%	−39.2 pp	39,755	Players reached 5+ ast in 17.6% of games, vs 56.8%. Adjusted: −2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	30.6%	65.3%	−34.7 pp	31,080	Players reached 15+ pts in 30.6% of games, vs 65.3%. Adjusted: −2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	6.1%	39.3%	−33.2 pp	49,132	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 6.1% of games, vs 39.3%. Adjusted: −1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	17.1%	52.8%	−35.8 pp	40,574	Players reached 20+ pts in 17.1% of games, vs 52.8%. Adjusted: −1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	8.2%	43.7%	−35.5 pp	47,863	Players reached 10+ reb in 8.2% of games, vs 43.7%. Adjusted: −1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	15.0%	51.0%	−36.0 pp	42,958	Players reached 8+ reb in 15.0% of games, vs 51.0%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.

Explained by quality 3 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	9.2%	40.4%	−31.2 pp	47,010	Players reached 25+ pts in 9.2% of games, vs 40.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	21.6%	42.2%	−20.6 pp	40,607	Players reached 3+ threes in 21.6% of games, vs 42.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	36.2%	60.8%	−24.5 pp	30,458	Players reached 2+ threes in 36.2% of games, vs 60.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 8+ ast in 6.1% of games, vs 37.6%. Adjusted: −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.

In the spot: 6.1%
Baseline: 37.6%
Sample: 49,343 player-games
Adjusted: −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 49,343 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Player 8+ ast: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 8 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	6.1%	37.6%	−31.5 pp	49,343	Players reached 8+ ast in 6.1% of games, vs 37.6%. Adjusted: −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	16.3%	56.5%	−40.2 pp	40,233	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 16.3% of games, vs 56.5%. Adjusted: −2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	17.6%	56.8%	−39.2 pp	39,755	Players reached 5+ ast in 17.6% of games, vs 56.8%. Adjusted: −2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	30.6%	65.3%	−34.7 pp	31,080	Players reached 15+ pts in 30.6% of games, vs 65.3%. Adjusted: −2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	6.1%	39.3%	−33.2 pp	49,132	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 6.1% of games, vs 39.3%. Adjusted: −1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	17.1%	52.8%	−35.8 pp	40,574	Players reached 20+ pts in 17.1% of games, vs 52.8%. Adjusted: −1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	8.2%	43.7%	−35.5 pp	47,863	Players reached 10+ reb in 8.2% of games, vs 43.7%. Adjusted: −1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	15.0%	51.0%	−36.0 pp	42,958	Players reached 8+ reb in 15.0% of games, vs 51.0%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.

Explained by quality 3 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	9.2%	40.4%	−31.2 pp	47,010	Players reached 25+ pts in 9.2% of games, vs 40.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	21.6%	42.2%	−20.6 pp	40,607	Players reached 3+ threes in 21.6% of games, vs 42.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	36.2%	60.8%	−24.5 pp	30,458	Players reached 2+ threes in 36.2% of games, vs 60.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 8+ ast in 6.1% of games, vs 37.6%. Adjusted: −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.

In the spot: 6.1%
Baseline: 37.6%
Sample: 49,343 player-games
Adjusted: −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 49,343 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Player 8+ ast: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 8 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	6.1%	37.6%	−31.5 pp	49,343	Players reached 8+ ast in 6.1% of games, vs 37.6%. Adjusted: −2.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	16.3%	56.5%	−40.2 pp	40,233	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 16.3% of games, vs 56.5%. Adjusted: −2.4 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	17.6%	56.8%	−39.2 pp	39,755	Players reached 5+ ast in 17.6% of games, vs 56.8%. Adjusted: −2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	30.6%	65.3%	−34.7 pp	31,080	Players reached 15+ pts in 30.6% of games, vs 65.3%. Adjusted: −2.1 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	6.1%	39.3%	−33.2 pp	49,132	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 6.1% of games, vs 39.3%. Adjusted: −1.8 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	17.1%	52.8%	−35.8 pp	40,574	Players reached 20+ pts in 17.1% of games, vs 52.8%. Adjusted: −1.6 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	8.2%	43.7%	−35.5 pp	47,863	Players reached 10+ reb in 8.2% of games, vs 43.7%. Adjusted: −1.5 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	15.0%	51.0%	−36.0 pp	42,958	Players reached 8+ reb in 15.0% of games, vs 51.0%. Adjusted: −1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm. Most of the raw gap reflects which players land in this spot.

Explained by quality 3 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	9.2%	40.4%	−31.2 pp	47,010	Players reached 25+ pts in 9.2% of games, vs 40.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−1.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	21.6%	42.2%	−20.6 pp	40,607	Players reached 3+ threes in 21.6% of games, vs 42.2%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.6 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	36.2%	60.8%	−24.5 pp	30,458	Players reached 2+ threes in 36.2% of games, vs 60.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

(4.0 MB)

Definitions

The spot: Previous game (same season) under the same line (value < X); next-game X+ rate
Baseline: Same players after a game that hit the line
All-time seasons: 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.