NBA · All time: Edge
Bounce-back after a bottom-25% game
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 20+ pts in 25.3% of games, vs 26.4%. Adjusted: −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 25.3%
- Baseline
- 26.4%
- Sample
- 12,341 player-games
- Adjusted
- −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 12,341 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.3% | 26.4% | −1.1 pp | 12,341 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.3% of games, vs 26.4%. Adjusted: −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.7 | 15.0 | −0.3 | 12,341 | Players averaged 14.7 pts, vs 15.0. Adjusted: −0.4 vs each player’s own norm. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.
Myth checked
Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 20+ pts in 25.9% of games, vs 24.6%. Not a clear difference.
- In the spot
- 25.9%
- Baseline
- 24.6%
- Sample
- 529 player-games
- Adjusted
- +7.4 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 529 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Myth checked 2 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.9% | 24.6% | +1.3 pp | 529 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.9% of games, vs 24.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.1 | 14.4 | −0.3 | 529 | Players averaged 14.1 pts, vs 14.4. Not a clear difference. |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 20+ pts in 23.6% of games, vs 25.5%. Adjusted: −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 23.6%
- Baseline
- 25.5%
- Sample
- 3,927 player-games
- Adjusted
- −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 3,927 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 23.6% | 25.5% | −1.9 pp | 3,927 | Players reached 20+ pts in 23.6% of games, vs 25.5%. Adjusted: −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.3 | 14.8 | −0.5 | 3,927 | Players averaged 14.3 pts, vs 14.8. Adjusted: −0.4 vs each player’s own norm. |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 20+ pts in 25.3% of games, vs 26.4%. Adjusted: −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 25.3%
- Baseline
- 26.4%
- Sample
- 12,341 player-games
- Adjusted
- −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 12,341 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.3% | 26.4% | −1.1 pp | 12,341 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.3% of games, vs 26.4%. Adjusted: −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.7 | 15.0 | −0.3 | 12,341 | Players averaged 14.7 pts, vs 15.0. Adjusted: −0.4 vs each player’s own norm. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 20+ pts in 25.3% of games, vs 26.4%. Adjusted: −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 25.3%
- Baseline
- 26.4%
- Sample
- 12,341 player-games
- Adjusted
- −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 12,341 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.3% | 26.4% | −1.1 pp | 12,341 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.3% of games, vs 26.4%. Adjusted: −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.7 | 15.0 | −0.3 | 12,341 | Players averaged 14.7 pts, vs 15.0. Adjusted: −0.4 vs each player’s own norm. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 20+ pts in 25.3% of games, vs 26.4%. Adjusted: −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 25.3%
- Baseline
- 26.4%
- Sample
- 12,341 player-games
- Adjusted
- −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 12,341 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.3% | 26.4% | −1.1 pp | 12,341 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.3% of games, vs 26.4%. Adjusted: −1.9 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.7 | 15.0 | −0.3 | 12,341 | Players averaged 14.7 pts, vs 15.0. Adjusted: −0.4 vs each player’s own norm. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.9 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Previous game (same season) at or below the player's own 25th percentile of all earlier stored games (10+ earlier games; no look-ahead)
- Baseline
- Same players after a game above their 25th percentile
- All-time seasons
- 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.