NBA · All time: Myth checked

Birthday week (+/-3 days)

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 31.1% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 31.1%
Baseline: 28.4%
Sample: 872 player-games
Adjusted: +2.0 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 872 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 12 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	31.1%	28.4%	+2.7 pp	872	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 31.1% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	47.6%	47.5%	+0.1 pp	872	Players reached 2+ threes in 47.6% of games, vs 47.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	15.0%	12.9%	+2.1 pp	872	Players reached 10+ reb in 15.0% of games, vs 12.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	25.7%	23.5%	+2.2 pp	872	Players reached 8+ reb in 25.7% of games, vs 23.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	15.7%	14.2%	+1.5 pp	872	Players reached 25+ pts in 15.7% of games, vs 14.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	10.7%	9.0%	+1.7 pp	872	Players reached 8+ ast in 10.7% of games, vs 9.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	29.4%	28.4%	+1.0 pp	872	Players reached 5+ ast in 29.4% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.9%	27.3%	−0.3 pp	872	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.9% of games, vs 27.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	10.3%	9.8%	+0.5 pp	872	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 10.3% of games, vs 9.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	27.9%	27.7%	+0.1 pp	872	Players reached 20+ pts in 27.9% of games, vs 27.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	47.0%	47.6%	−0.6 pp	872	Players reached 15+ pts in 47.0% of games, vs 47.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	15.2	15.3	−0.0	872	Players averaged 15.2 pts, vs 15.3. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.

Too small

Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Sample in this window: 29 player-games
Floor to publish: 100+ player-games from 30+ games

See all 29 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Too small 12 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	–	–	–	29	Too small to publish in this window: n=29 from 28 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games).

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 2+ threes in 46.7% of games, vs 46.3%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 46.7%
Baseline: 46.3%
Sample: 332 player-games
Adjusted: +4.2 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 332 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 12 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	46.7%	46.3%	+0.4 pp	332	Players reached 2+ threes in 46.7% of games, vs 46.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	25.9%	26.3%	−0.4 pp	332	Players reached 3+ threes in 25.9% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	14.2%	12.7%	+1.5 pp	332	Players reached 25+ pts in 14.2% of games, vs 12.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	10.8%	8.1%	+2.8 pp	332	Players reached 8+ ast in 10.8% of games, vs 8.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.7%	25.5%	−0.8 pp	332	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.7% of games, vs 25.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	22.3%	21.7%	+0.6 pp	332	Players reached 8+ reb in 22.3% of games, vs 21.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.9%	25.4%	+0.5 pp	332	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.9% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	28.6%	26.7%	+1.9 pp	332	Players reached 5+ ast in 28.6% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.7%	45.9%	−2.3 pp	332	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.7% of games, vs 45.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	9.3%	8.4%	+1.0 pp	332	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.3% of games, vs 8.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	12.0%	11.1%	+0.9 pp	332	Players reached 10+ reb in 12.0% of games, vs 11.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.6	14.8	−0.2	332	Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.8. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 31.1% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 31.1%
Baseline: 28.4%
Sample: 872 player-games
Adjusted: +2.0 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 872 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 12 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	31.1%	28.4%	+2.7 pp	872	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 31.1% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	47.6%	47.5%	+0.1 pp	872	Players reached 2+ threes in 47.6% of games, vs 47.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	15.0%	12.9%	+2.1 pp	872	Players reached 10+ reb in 15.0% of games, vs 12.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	25.7%	23.5%	+2.2 pp	872	Players reached 8+ reb in 25.7% of games, vs 23.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	15.7%	14.2%	+1.5 pp	872	Players reached 25+ pts in 15.7% of games, vs 14.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	10.7%	9.0%	+1.7 pp	872	Players reached 8+ ast in 10.7% of games, vs 9.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	29.4%	28.4%	+1.0 pp	872	Players reached 5+ ast in 29.4% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.9%	27.3%	−0.3 pp	872	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.9% of games, vs 27.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	10.3%	9.8%	+0.5 pp	872	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 10.3% of games, vs 9.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	27.9%	27.7%	+0.1 pp	872	Players reached 20+ pts in 27.9% of games, vs 27.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	47.0%	47.6%	−0.6 pp	872	Players reached 15+ pts in 47.0% of games, vs 47.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	15.2	15.3	−0.0	872	Players averaged 15.2 pts, vs 15.3. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 31.1% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 31.1%
Baseline: 28.4%
Sample: 872 player-games
Adjusted: +2.0 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 872 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 12 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	31.1%	28.4%	+2.7 pp	872	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 31.1% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	47.6%	47.5%	+0.1 pp	872	Players reached 2+ threes in 47.6% of games, vs 47.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	15.0%	12.9%	+2.1 pp	872	Players reached 10+ reb in 15.0% of games, vs 12.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	25.7%	23.5%	+2.2 pp	872	Players reached 8+ reb in 25.7% of games, vs 23.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	15.7%	14.2%	+1.5 pp	872	Players reached 25+ pts in 15.7% of games, vs 14.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	10.7%	9.0%	+1.7 pp	872	Players reached 8+ ast in 10.7% of games, vs 9.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	29.4%	28.4%	+1.0 pp	872	Players reached 5+ ast in 29.4% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.9%	27.3%	−0.3 pp	872	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.9% of games, vs 27.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	10.3%	9.8%	+0.5 pp	872	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 10.3% of games, vs 9.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	27.9%	27.7%	+0.1 pp	872	Players reached 20+ pts in 27.9% of games, vs 27.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	47.0%	47.6%	−0.6 pp	872	Players reached 15+ pts in 47.0% of games, vs 47.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	15.2	15.3	−0.0	872	Players averaged 15.2 pts, vs 15.3. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Myth checked

Checked: no clear difference. Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 31.1% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference.

In the spot: 31.1%
Baseline: 28.4%
Sample: 872 player-games
Adjusted: +2.0 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 872 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Myth checked 12 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	31.1%	28.4%	+2.7 pp	872	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 31.1% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	47.6%	47.5%	+0.1 pp	872	Players reached 2+ threes in 47.6% of games, vs 47.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	15.0%	12.9%	+2.1 pp	872	Players reached 10+ reb in 15.0% of games, vs 12.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	25.7%	23.5%	+2.2 pp	872	Players reached 8+ reb in 25.7% of games, vs 23.5%. Not a clear difference.
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	15.7%	14.2%	+1.5 pp	872	Players reached 25+ pts in 15.7% of games, vs 14.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	10.7%	9.0%	+1.7 pp	872	Players reached 8+ ast in 10.7% of games, vs 9.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	29.4%	28.4%	+1.0 pp	872	Players reached 5+ ast in 29.4% of games, vs 28.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.9%	27.3%	−0.3 pp	872	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.9% of games, vs 27.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	10.3%	9.8%	+0.5 pp	872	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 10.3% of games, vs 9.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	27.9%	27.7%	+0.1 pp	872	Players reached 20+ pts in 27.9% of games, vs 27.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	47.0%	47.6%	−0.6 pp	872	Players reached 15+ pts in 47.0% of games, vs 47.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	15.2	15.3	−0.0	872	Players averaged 15.2 pts, vs 15.3. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

(0.1 MB)

Definitions

The spot: Game within 3 days of the birthday (includes the day)
Baseline: Other games of players with a known DOB
All-time seasons: 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.