NBA · All time: Edge
Game after overtime
pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.
All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 45.1% of games in this spot, vs 50.3% in the baseline. Adjusted: −4.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
- In the spot
- 45.1%
- Baseline
- 50.3%
- Sample
- 384 team-games
- Adjusted
- −4.4 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 384 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 45.1% | 50.3% | −5.2 pp | 384 | Teams won 45.1% of games in this spot, vs 50.3% in the baseline. Adjusted: −4.4 pp vs expectation for team strength. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -1.9 | 0.1 | −2.0 | 384 | Average margin −1.9 vs +0.1 in the baseline. Adjusted: −1.7 vs expectation for team strength. |
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 112.2 | 114.1 | −2.0 | 384 | Teams scored 112.2 points a game, vs 114.1. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 45.4% | 46.9% | −1.6 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 2+ threes in 45.4% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 21.8% | 22.3% | −0.5 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 8+ reb in 21.8% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.2% | 9.0% | −0.7 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.2% of games, vs 9.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 12.4% | 13.1% | −0.8 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 25+ pts in 12.4% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.2% | 8.8% | −0.5 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.2% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 45.3% | 45.2% | +0.1 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 15+ pts in 45.3% of games, vs 45.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.9% | 27.8% | +0.1 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.9% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.4% | 12.1% | +0.3 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.4% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.7% | 26.3% | +0.4 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.7% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.9% | 25.8% | +0.1 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.9% of games, vs 25.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 26.6% | 26.6% | −0.0 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 3+ threes in 26.6% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.6 | 14.8 | −0.2 | 2,529 | Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.8. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 114.1 | 114.0 | +0.0 | 384 | Teams allowed 114.1 points a game, vs 114.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 226.2 | 228.2 | −2.0 | 384 | Teams averaged 226.2 game total, vs 228.2. Not a clear difference. |
This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.
Too small
Too small to publish in this window: n=16 from 16 games (the floor is 200+ games).
- Sample in this window
- 16 team-games
- Floor to publish
- 200+ games
See all 16 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Too small 17 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | – | – | – | 16 | Too small to publish in this window: n=16 from 16 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | – | – | – | 109 | Too small to publish in this window: n=109 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | – | – | – | 109 | Too small to publish in this window: n=109 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 109 | Too small to publish in this window: n=109 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | – | – | – | 109 | Too small to publish in this window: n=109 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | – | – | – | 109 | Too small to publish in this window: n=109 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | – | – | – | 109 | Too small to publish in this window: n=109 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | – | – | – | 109 | Too small to publish in this window: n=109 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | – | – | – | 109 | Too small to publish in this window: n=109 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | – | – | – | 109 | Too small to publish in this window: n=109 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | – | – | – | 109 | Too small to publish in this window: n=109 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | – | – | – | 109 | Too small to publish in this window: n=109 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | – | – | – | 109 | Too small to publish in this window: n=109 from 16 games (the floor is 100+ player-games from 30+ games). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | – | – | – | 16 | Too small to publish in this window: n=16 from 16 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | – | – | – | 16 | Too small to publish in this window: n=16 from 16 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | – | – | – | 16 | Too small to publish in this window: n=16 from 16 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | – | – | – | 16 | Too small to publish in this window: n=16 from 16 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 2+ threes in 40.3% of games, vs 46.2%. Adjusted: −4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm.
- In the spot
- 40.3%
- Baseline
- 46.2%
- Sample
- 754 player-games
- Adjusted
- −4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm
See all 754 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 1 measure
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 40.3% | 46.2% | −5.9 pp | 754 | Players reached 2+ threes in 40.3% of games, vs 46.2%. Adjusted: −4.1 pp vs each player’s own norm. |
Myth checked 11 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 11.8% | 12.4% | −0.5 pp | 754 | Players reached 25+ pts in 11.8% of games, vs 12.4%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 24.5% | 24.8% | −0.2 pp | 754 | Players reached 20+ pts in 24.5% of games, vs 24.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 21.4% | 21.3% | +0.1 pp | 754 | Players reached 8+ reb in 21.4% of games, vs 21.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 7.6% | 8.2% | −0.6 pp | 754 | Players reached 8+ ast in 7.6% of games, vs 8.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 25.3% | 24.7% | +0.6 pp | 754 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.3% of games, vs 24.7%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 24.0% | 26.1% | −2.1 pp | 754 | Players reached 3+ threes in 24.0% of games, vs 26.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 45.2% | 44.9% | +0.3 pp | 754 | Players reached 15+ pts in 45.2% of games, vs 44.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.8% | 8.1% | +0.7 pp | 754 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.8% of games, vs 8.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 28.1% | 26.6% | +1.5 pp | 754 | Players reached 5+ ast in 28.1% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 11.8% | 10.9% | +0.9 pp | 754 | Players reached 10+ reb in 11.8% of games, vs 10.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.6 | 14.6 | −0.1 | 754 | Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.6. Not a clear difference. |
Too small 5 measures
Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | – | – | – | 116 | Too small to publish in this window: n=116 from 108 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | – | – | – | 116 | Too small to publish in this window: n=116 from 108 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | – | – | – | 116 | Too small to publish in this window: n=116 from 108 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | – | – | – | 116 | Too small to publish in this window: n=116 from 108 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | – | – | – | 116 | Too small to publish in this window: n=116 from 108 games (the floor is 200+ games). |
Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 45.1% of games in this spot, vs 50.3% in the baseline. Adjusted: −4.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
- In the spot
- 45.1%
- Baseline
- 50.3%
- Sample
- 384 team-games
- Adjusted
- −4.4 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 384 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 45.1% | 50.3% | −5.2 pp | 384 | Teams won 45.1% of games in this spot, vs 50.3% in the baseline. Adjusted: −4.4 pp vs expectation for team strength. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -1.9 | 0.1 | −2.0 | 384 | Average margin −1.9 vs +0.1 in the baseline. Adjusted: −1.7 vs expectation for team strength. |
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 112.2 | 114.1 | −2.0 | 384 | Teams scored 112.2 points a game, vs 114.1. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 45.4% | 46.9% | −1.6 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 2+ threes in 45.4% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 21.8% | 22.3% | −0.5 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 8+ reb in 21.8% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.2% | 9.0% | −0.7 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.2% of games, vs 9.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 12.4% | 13.1% | −0.8 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 25+ pts in 12.4% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.2% | 8.8% | −0.5 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.2% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 45.3% | 45.2% | +0.1 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 15+ pts in 45.3% of games, vs 45.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.9% | 27.8% | +0.1 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.9% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.4% | 12.1% | +0.3 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.4% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.7% | 26.3% | +0.4 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.7% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.9% | 25.8% | +0.1 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.9% of games, vs 25.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 26.6% | 26.6% | −0.0 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 3+ threes in 26.6% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.6 | 14.8 | −0.2 | 2,529 | Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.8. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 114.1 | 114.0 | +0.0 | 384 | Teams allowed 114.1 points a game, vs 114.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 226.2 | 228.2 | −2.0 | 384 | Teams averaged 226.2 game total, vs 228.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 45.1% of games in this spot, vs 50.3% in the baseline. Adjusted: −4.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
- In the spot
- 45.1%
- Baseline
- 50.3%
- Sample
- 384 team-games
- Adjusted
- −4.4 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 384 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 45.1% | 50.3% | −5.2 pp | 384 | Teams won 45.1% of games in this spot, vs 50.3% in the baseline. Adjusted: −4.4 pp vs expectation for team strength. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -1.9 | 0.1 | −2.0 | 384 | Average margin −1.9 vs +0.1 in the baseline. Adjusted: −1.7 vs expectation for team strength. |
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 112.2 | 114.1 | −2.0 | 384 | Teams scored 112.2 points a game, vs 114.1. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 45.4% | 46.9% | −1.6 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 2+ threes in 45.4% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 21.8% | 22.3% | −0.5 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 8+ reb in 21.8% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.2% | 9.0% | −0.7 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.2% of games, vs 9.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 12.4% | 13.1% | −0.8 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 25+ pts in 12.4% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.2% | 8.8% | −0.5 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.2% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 45.3% | 45.2% | +0.1 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 15+ pts in 45.3% of games, vs 45.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.9% | 27.8% | +0.1 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.9% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.4% | 12.1% | +0.3 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.4% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.7% | 26.3% | +0.4 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.7% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.9% | 25.8% | +0.1 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.9% of games, vs 25.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 26.6% | 26.6% | −0.0 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 3+ threes in 26.6% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.6 | 14.8 | −0.2 | 2,529 | Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.8. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 114.1 | 114.0 | +0.0 | 384 | Teams allowed 114.1 points a game, vs 114.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 226.2 | 228.2 | −2.0 | 384 | Teams averaged 226.2 game total, vs 228.2. Not a clear difference. |
Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.
Edge
A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 45.1% of games in this spot, vs 50.3% in the baseline. Adjusted: −4.4 pp vs expectation for team strength.
- In the spot
- 45.1%
- Baseline
- 50.3%
- Sample
- 384 team-games
- Adjusted
- −4.4 pp vs expectation for team strength
See all 384 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss
Edge 2 measures
Holds after accounting for team or player quality.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rateSee the games for Win rate → | 45.1% | 50.3% | −5.2 pp | 384 | Teams won 45.1% of games in this spot, vs 50.3% in the baseline. Adjusted: −4.4 pp vs expectation for team strength. |
| Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin → | -1.9 | 0.1 | −2.0 | 384 | Average margin −1.9 vs +0.1 in the baseline. Adjusted: −1.7 vs expectation for team strength. |
Context only 1 measure
Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored → | 112.2 | 114.1 | −2.0 | 384 | Teams scored 112.2 points a game, vs 114.1. Not adjusted for team strength. |
Myth checked 14 measures
No clear difference from the baseline.
| Measure | In spot | Baseline | Diff. | n | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes → | 45.4% | 46.9% | −1.6 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 2+ threes in 45.4% of games, vs 46.9%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb → | 21.8% | 22.3% | −0.5 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 8+ reb in 21.8% of games, vs 22.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast → | 8.2% | 9.0% | −0.7 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 8.2% of games, vs 9.0%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts → | 12.4% | 13.1% | −0.8 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 25+ pts in 12.4% of games, vs 13.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast → | 8.2% | 8.8% | −0.5 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 8+ ast in 8.2% of games, vs 8.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts → | 45.3% | 45.2% | +0.1 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 15+ pts in 45.3% of games, vs 45.2%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast → | 27.9% | 27.8% | +0.1 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 5+ ast in 27.9% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb → | 12.4% | 12.1% | +0.3 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 10+ reb in 12.4% of games, vs 12.1%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast → | 26.7% | 26.3% | +0.4 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 26.7% of games, vs 26.3%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts → | 25.9% | 25.8% | +0.1 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 20+ pts in 25.9% of games, vs 25.8%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes → | 26.6% | 26.6% | −0.0 pp | 2,529 | Players reached 3+ threes in 26.6% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference. |
| Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts → | 14.6 | 14.8 | −0.2 | 2,529 | Players averaged 14.6 pts, vs 14.8. Not a clear difference. |
| Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed → | 114.1 | 114.0 | +0.0 | 384 | Teams allowed 114.1 points a game, vs 114.0. Not a clear difference. |
| game totalSee the games for game total → | 226.2 | 228.2 | −2.0 | 384 | Teams averaged 226.2 game total, vs 228.2. Not a clear difference. |
The games every game behind these numbers
Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.
(0.3 MB)
Definitions
- The spot
- Previous game (same season) went to OT (NFL/NBA: >4 periods in ESPN linescores; NHL: OT or shootout)
- Baseline
- Other team-games
- All-time seasons
- 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
- Sample rule
- game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
- pp
- Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.
“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.