NBA · All time: Edge

After a blowout win (letdown spot)

pp means percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher.

All time: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 62.2% of games in this spot, vs 48.6% in the baseline. Adjusted: +4.0 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 62.2%
Baseline: 48.6%
Sample: 871 team-games
Adjusted: +4.0 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 871 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	62.2%	48.6%	+13.7 pp	871	Teams won 62.2% of games in this spot, vs 48.6% in the baseline. Adjusted: +4.0 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	4.4	-0.5	+5.0	871	Average margin +4.4 vs −0.5 in the baseline. Adjusted: +0.9 vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 7 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	13.2%	12.0%	+1.2 pp	5,770	Players reached 10+ reb in 13.2% of games, vs 12.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	27.2%	25.6%	+1.6 pp	5,770	Players reached 20+ pts in 27.2% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	23.5%	22.1%	+1.4 pp	5,770	Players reached 8+ reb in 23.5% of games, vs 22.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	28.2%	26.1%	+2.1 pp	5,770	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.2% of games, vs 26.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	14.8%	12.9%	+1.9 pp	5,770	Players reached 25+ pts in 14.8% of games, vs 12.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	10.1%	8.8%	+1.3 pp	5,770	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 10.1% of games, vs 8.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	15.1	14.8	+0.4	5,770	Players averaged 15.1 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	115.6	113.9	+1.7	871	Teams scored 115.6 points a game, vs 113.9. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	111.1	114.4	−3.3	871	Teams allowed 111.1 points a game, vs 114.4. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 6 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	45.7%	45.1%	+0.6 pp	5,770	Players reached 15+ pts in 45.7% of games, vs 45.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	28.0%	27.8%	+0.2 pp	5,770	Players reached 5+ ast in 28.0% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	27.3%	26.6%	+0.7 pp	5,770	Players reached 3+ threes in 27.3% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	47.9%	46.7%	+1.2 pp	5,770	Players reached 2+ threes in 47.9% of games, vs 46.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.8%	8.7%	+0.1 pp	5,770	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.8% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	226.7	228.3	−1.5	871	Teams averaged 226.7 game total, vs 228.3. Not a clear difference.

This season: 2026-27, in progress: 170 games through 2026-11-11.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Players reached 25+ pts in 16.3% of games, vs 10.7%. Adjusted: +4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.

In the spot: 16.3%
Baseline: 10.7%
Sample: 270 player-games
Adjusted: +4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm

See all 270 player-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Player 25+ pts: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 1 measure

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	16.3%	10.7%	+5.6 pp	270	Players reached 25+ pts in 16.3% of games, vs 10.7%. Adjusted: +4.8 pp vs each player’s own norm.

Explained by quality 1 measure

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	15.2	14.2	+1.0	270	Players averaged 15.2 pts, vs 14.2. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 vs each player’s own norm).

Myth checked 10 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	23.3%	20.9%	+2.5 pp	270	Players reached 8+ reb in 23.3% of games, vs 20.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	10.0%	6.3%	+3.7 pp	270	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 10.0% of games, vs 6.3%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	29.3%	25.2%	+4.1 pp	270	Players reached 5+ ast in 29.3% of games, vs 25.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	24.4%	24.8%	−0.3 pp	270	Players reached 20+ pts in 24.4% of games, vs 24.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	43.7%	42.7%	+1.0 pp	270	Players reached 15+ pts in 43.7% of games, vs 42.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	25.6%	25.4%	+0.2 pp	270	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 25.6% of games, vs 25.4%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	53.3%	46.7%	+6.7 pp	270	Players reached 2+ threes in 53.3% of games, vs 46.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	28.5%	26.0%	+2.5 pp	270	Players reached 3+ threes in 28.5% of games, vs 26.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.9%	8.2%	+0.7 pp	270	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.9% of games, vs 8.2%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	10.4%	10.9%	−0.6 pp	270	Players reached 10+ reb in 10.4% of games, vs 10.9%. Not a clear difference.

Too small 5 measures

Below the sample floor in this window, so it isn’t published as a finding.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	–	–	–	41	Too small to publish in this window: n=41 from 37 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	–	–	–	41	Too small to publish in this window: n=41 from 37 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	–	–	–	41	Too small to publish in this window: n=41 from 37 games (the floor is 200+ games).
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	–	–	–	41	Too small to publish in this window: n=41 from 37 games (the floor is 200+ games).
game totalSee the games for game total →	–	–	–	41	Too small to publish in this window: n=41 from 37 games (the floor is 200+ games).

Last season: 2025-26 (1 season).

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 65.2% of games in this spot, vs 48.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: +8.5 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 65.2%
Baseline: 48.1%
Sample: 299 team-games
Adjusted: +8.5 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 299 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	65.2%	48.1%	+17.2 pp	299	Teams won 65.2% of games in this spot, vs 48.1% in the baseline. Adjusted: +8.5 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	5.4	-0.7	+6.0	299	Average margin +5.4 vs −0.7 in the baseline. Adjusted: +2.2 vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 3 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	27.4%	24.4%	+3.0 pp	2,020	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 27.4% of games, vs 24.4%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.4 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	14.0%	12.1%	+1.8 pp	2,020	Players reached 25+ pts in 14.0% of games, vs 12.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.2 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	26.7%	24.5%	+2.2 pp	2,020	Players reached 20+ pts in 26.7% of games, vs 24.5%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.0 pp vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 1 measure

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	111.2	115.6	−4.4	299	Teams allowed 111.2 points a game, vs 115.6. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 11 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	26.7%	26.7%	+0.0 pp	2,020	Players reached 5+ ast in 26.7% of games, vs 26.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	45.8%	44.8%	+1.0 pp	2,020	Players reached 15+ pts in 45.8% of games, vs 44.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	26.6%	25.9%	+0.7 pp	2,020	Players reached 3+ threes in 26.6% of games, vs 25.9%. Not a clear difference.
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	12.3%	10.8%	+1.5 pp	2,020	Players reached 10+ reb in 12.3% of games, vs 10.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	9.1%	8.0%	+1.1 pp	2,020	Players reached 8+ ast in 9.1% of games, vs 8.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	47.1%	45.8%	+1.2 pp	2,020	Players reached 2+ threes in 47.1% of games, vs 45.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	22.5%	21.1%	+1.3 pp	2,020	Players reached 8+ reb in 22.5% of games, vs 21.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	9.2%	8.0%	+1.2 pp	2,020	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 9.2% of games, vs 8.0%. Not a clear difference.
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	14.9	14.6	+0.3	2,020	Players averaged 14.9 pts, vs 14.6. Not a clear difference.
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	116.6	114.9	+1.7	299	Teams scored 116.6 points a game, vs 114.9. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	227.8	230.4	−2.7	299	Teams averaged 227.8 game total, vs 230.4. Not a clear difference.

Last 5 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 62.2% of games in this spot, vs 48.6% in the baseline. Adjusted: +4.0 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 62.2%
Baseline: 48.6%
Sample: 871 team-games
Adjusted: +4.0 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 871 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	62.2%	48.6%	+13.7 pp	871	Teams won 62.2% of games in this spot, vs 48.6% in the baseline. Adjusted: +4.0 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	4.4	-0.5	+5.0	871	Average margin +4.4 vs −0.5 in the baseline. Adjusted: +0.9 vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 7 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	13.2%	12.0%	+1.2 pp	5,770	Players reached 10+ reb in 13.2% of games, vs 12.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	27.2%	25.6%	+1.6 pp	5,770	Players reached 20+ pts in 27.2% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	23.5%	22.1%	+1.4 pp	5,770	Players reached 8+ reb in 23.5% of games, vs 22.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	28.2%	26.1%	+2.1 pp	5,770	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.2% of games, vs 26.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	14.8%	12.9%	+1.9 pp	5,770	Players reached 25+ pts in 14.8% of games, vs 12.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	10.1%	8.8%	+1.3 pp	5,770	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 10.1% of games, vs 8.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	15.1	14.8	+0.4	5,770	Players averaged 15.1 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	115.6	113.9	+1.7	871	Teams scored 115.6 points a game, vs 113.9. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	111.1	114.4	−3.3	871	Teams allowed 111.1 points a game, vs 114.4. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 6 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	45.7%	45.1%	+0.6 pp	5,770	Players reached 15+ pts in 45.7% of games, vs 45.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	28.0%	27.8%	+0.2 pp	5,770	Players reached 5+ ast in 28.0% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	27.3%	26.6%	+0.7 pp	5,770	Players reached 3+ threes in 27.3% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	47.9%	46.7%	+1.2 pp	5,770	Players reached 2+ threes in 47.9% of games, vs 46.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.8%	8.7%	+0.1 pp	5,770	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.8% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	226.7	228.3	−1.5	871	Teams averaged 226.7 game total, vs 228.3. Not a clear difference.

Last 10 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 62.2% of games in this spot, vs 48.6% in the baseline. Adjusted: +4.0 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 62.2%
Baseline: 48.6%
Sample: 871 team-games
Adjusted: +4.0 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 871 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	62.2%	48.6%	+13.7 pp	871	Teams won 62.2% of games in this spot, vs 48.6% in the baseline. Adjusted: +4.0 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	4.4	-0.5	+5.0	871	Average margin +4.4 vs −0.5 in the baseline. Adjusted: +0.9 vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 7 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	13.2%	12.0%	+1.2 pp	5,770	Players reached 10+ reb in 13.2% of games, vs 12.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	27.2%	25.6%	+1.6 pp	5,770	Players reached 20+ pts in 27.2% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	23.5%	22.1%	+1.4 pp	5,770	Players reached 8+ reb in 23.5% of games, vs 22.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	28.2%	26.1%	+2.1 pp	5,770	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.2% of games, vs 26.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	14.8%	12.9%	+1.9 pp	5,770	Players reached 25+ pts in 14.8% of games, vs 12.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	10.1%	8.8%	+1.3 pp	5,770	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 10.1% of games, vs 8.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	15.1	14.8	+0.4	5,770	Players averaged 15.1 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	115.6	113.9	+1.7	871	Teams scored 115.6 points a game, vs 113.9. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	111.1	114.4	−3.3	871	Teams allowed 111.1 points a game, vs 114.4. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 6 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	45.7%	45.1%	+0.6 pp	5,770	Players reached 15+ pts in 45.7% of games, vs 45.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	28.0%	27.8%	+0.2 pp	5,770	Players reached 5+ ast in 28.0% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	27.3%	26.6%	+0.7 pp	5,770	Players reached 3+ threes in 27.3% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	47.9%	46.7%	+1.2 pp	5,770	Players reached 2+ threes in 47.9% of games, vs 46.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.8%	8.7%	+0.1 pp	5,770	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.8% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	226.7	228.3	−1.5	871	Teams averaged 226.7 game total, vs 228.3. Not a clear difference.

Last 20 seasons: 2023-24 to 2026-27 (4 seasons); 2026-27 in progress, through 2026-11-11; only 4 seasons stored, so this equals all time.

Edge

A situational effect that holds up. Teams won 62.2% of games in this spot, vs 48.6% in the baseline. Adjusted: +4.0 pp vs expectation for team strength.

In the spot: 62.2%
Baseline: 48.6%
Sample: 871 team-games
Adjusted: +4.0 pp vs expectation for team strength

See all 871 team-games behind this →Every one listed with its result, Hit or Miss

Win rate: the rate in the spot with its 95% interval, against the baseline.

Edge 2 measures

Holds after accounting for team or player quality.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Win rateSee the games for Win rate →	62.2%	48.6%	+13.7 pp	871	Teams won 62.2% of games in this spot, vs 48.6% in the baseline. Adjusted: +4.0 pp vs expectation for team strength.
Avg marginSee the games for Avg margin →	4.4	-0.5	+5.0	871	Average margin +4.4 vs −0.5 in the baseline. Adjusted: +0.9 vs expectation for team strength.

Explained by quality 7 measures

A raw gap exists, but it goes away once team or player quality is accounted for. Not a psychology edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 10+ rebSee the games for Player 10+ reb →	13.2%	12.0%	+1.2 pp	5,770	Players reached 10+ reb in 13.2% of games, vs 12.0%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 20+ ptsSee the games for Player 20+ pts →	27.2%	25.6%	+1.6 pp	5,770	Players reached 20+ pts in 27.2% of games, vs 25.6%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.5 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 8+ rebSee the games for Player 8+ reb →	23.5%	22.1%	+1.4 pp	5,770	Players reached 8+ reb in 23.5% of games, vs 22.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 30+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 30+ pts+reb+ast →	28.2%	26.1%	+2.1 pp	5,770	Players reached 30+ pts+reb+ast in 28.2% of games, vs 26.1%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 25+ ptsSee the games for Player 25+ pts →	14.8%	12.9%	+1.9 pp	5,770	Players reached 25+ pts in 14.8% of games, vs 12.9%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (+0.3 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player 40+ pts+reb+astSee the games for Player 40+ pts+reb+ast →	10.1%	8.8%	+1.3 pp	5,770	Players reached 40+ pts+reb+ast in 10.1% of games, vs 8.8%. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 pp vs each player’s own norm).
Player avg ptsSee the games for Player avg pts →	15.1	14.8	+0.4	5,770	Players averaged 15.1 pts, vs 14.8. The gap goes away once quality is accounted for (−0.1 vs each player’s own norm).

Context only 2 measures

Not adjusted for team quality, so it is context, not an edge.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Avg scoredSee the games for Avg scored →	115.6	113.9	+1.7	871	Teams scored 115.6 points a game, vs 113.9. Not adjusted for team strength.
Avg allowedSee the games for Avg allowed →	111.1	114.4	−3.3	871	Teams allowed 111.1 points a game, vs 114.4. Not adjusted for team strength.

Myth checked 6 measures

No clear difference from the baseline.

Measure	In spot	Baseline	Diff.	n	What it means
Player 15+ ptsSee the games for Player 15+ pts →	45.7%	45.1%	+0.6 pp	5,770	Players reached 15+ pts in 45.7% of games, vs 45.1%. Not a clear difference.
Player 5+ astSee the games for Player 5+ ast →	28.0%	27.8%	+0.2 pp	5,770	Players reached 5+ ast in 28.0% of games, vs 27.8%. Not a clear difference.
Player 3+ threesSee the games for Player 3+ threes →	27.3%	26.6%	+0.7 pp	5,770	Players reached 3+ threes in 27.3% of games, vs 26.6%. Not a clear difference.
Player 2+ threesSee the games for Player 2+ threes →	47.9%	46.7%	+1.2 pp	5,770	Players reached 2+ threes in 47.9% of games, vs 46.7%. Not a clear difference.
Player 8+ astSee the games for Player 8+ ast →	8.8%	8.7%	+0.1 pp	5,770	Players reached 8+ ast in 8.8% of games, vs 8.7%. Not a clear difference.
game totalSee the games for game total →	226.7	228.3	−1.5	871	Teams averaged 226.7 game total, vs 228.3. Not a clear difference.

The games every game behind these numbers

Every game that counts toward the rates above, newest first. Hit (green) means the thing being measured happened in that game; Miss (red) means it didn’t. Averages (points, margin, totals) show the actual number with no color. Player and team-scoring lists can also be colored by a second method, picked with the “Hit or miss means” switch: did they go over their own season average entering that game (earlier games that season only, at least 3 of them; not a Vegas line). Click any game for the full breakdown. The list follows the season window above and adds up exactly to the published numbers.

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Definitions

The spot: Previous game (same season) won by 17+ NFL / 20+ NBA / 3+ NHL
Baseline: Other team-games with a scored previous game
All-time seasons: 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, through 2026-11-11
Sample rule: game/team grain: 200+ distinct games; league-wide player grain: 100+ player-games from 30+ games; player-specific: 30+ games; plays: 200+; and BH q<=0.1 for "published". The same rule applies inside every season window.
pp: Percentage points: the difference between two rates. For example, 40% versus 62% is −22 percentage points. A minus means the rate was lower than the baseline; a plus means it was higher. This is a description of the rates, not a betting instruction.

“X+” means the value reached X or more, so a push can’t happen. Intervals are the wider of a 95% Wilson interval and a game-clustered interval. Shorter windows are recomputed from the games in those seasons, never scaled from the all-time rate. See the methodology.